Wave Getting Organized

[MWatkins]

A couple of things, first, as I posted elsewhere earlier, The low-level cloud vectors between 65 and 70 west below 25N are/were streaking to the N or NNW at best which was inconsistent with a true LLC near 23/72. By the time recon got in the low-circulation had weakened so much it was no longer influncing the environment. Also...even if reco were in there now they wouldn't (probably) find a low-level center and at best would fix a mid-level vortex.

That being written the burst that has started near 25.5 70.3 is probably the deepest so far and it may be indicative that the low center is going to drop in/develop near there soon.

It also means we have been following the wrong feature for most of the day and the models may jump around some tonight when they are initialized with the new past/forward motion. There is still no reason...for now...to believe the it won't continue to move due-west for another 4 or 5 days...it just may not be as fast with forward motion. The timing for South Florida may be a day too soon.

Finally...the environment has been moderating all day with tons of moisture being drawn up into the mid levels. This will set the stage for deeper convection during the overnight hours when radiational cooling aloft is at it's peak. Dry is no longer a limiting factor.

This just in from the 2245 sat image,
bursting continues right around 25/70. No deep reds yet but it's still as concentrated and deep as it's been in the last several days.

Could get very interesting this evening.

MW

[PerficktGurl]

If it becomes a tropical storm or hurricane, will it affect the Florida panhandle? My family and I are planning a trip to Panama City Beach this coming weekend (August 14-17).

TIA,
Carly-Beth

[Rainband]

Thanks MWatkins for your vauable insight!!!

[cycloneye]

Good anaylisis of the situation which is a BIG challenge to the experts with systems like this not having a well defined center LLC staked with a MLC.

[Stormsfury]

I just posted my thoughts as well on another brand new thread and I, too, am becoming very concerned about the continued increasing convection around the MLC along with a good looking outflow ...

As always, Mike, good analysis.

SF

[Steve H.]

Yeah SF, the MLC is looking better. Figures the minute I say when one thing it does the other. That's my strategy I'm not feeling good about this, as I'm at about 27.8N/80 W :o

[chadtm80]

Beutifull outflow

[ColdFront77]

It's looking pretty interesting for not having it's act together.


Forecast from Melbourne NWS:

Overnight. Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 70s. East winds 5 mph.

Wednesday. Partly sunny. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Highs around 90. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Wednesday night. Partly cloudy. Isolated evening showers and thunderstorms then scattered showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the mid 70s. Northeast winds 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Thursday. Mostly cloudy and breezy. Thunderstorms likely. Highs in the upper 80s. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.


They had "overnight thunderstorms" for tomorrow night into Thursday earlier today.

[Colin]

Yup...I'd keep an eye on this ALL Floridians.

[southerngale]

It sure is looking pretty good....nice outflow! Thanks for your insight guys. Your knowledge is appreciated!!

[ALhurricane]

The water vapor imagery is deeply troubling to me. As Mike and many others have mentioned, the upper level outflow is becoming extremely well established. With the convection firing near the MLC, I believe this is the main game. The earlier low level swirl has weakened and is not in a good location for development. All the action has moved to the MLC. Residents from central to south Florida need to monitor this system closely.

[Scott_inVA]

[quote="chadtm80"]Beutifull outflow


Hmmm...

Is that a picture of Joe Bastardi??? I think I saw him at a Springsteen concert 20 years ago. :o

[JetMaxx]

If it becomes a tropical storm or hurricane, will it affect the Florida panhandle? My family and I are planning a trip to Panama City Beach this coming weekend (August 14-17).

TIA,
Carly-Beth

Probably not....it now appears that whatever this system becomes, it will track westward from extreme south Florida or the Florida Straits toward the Western Gulf; which should keep most of the affects south of the Panhandle beaches (due to high pressure forecast to build westward from the Atlantic Coast, blocking the developing storm from recurving).

However, tropical systems can be very unpredictable, and I strongly urge anyone planning travel to the Gulf Coast or Florida to monitor the latest tropical weather information....just in case.

[PerficktGurl]

Probably not....it now appears that whatever this system becomes, it will track westward from extreme south Florida or the Florida Straits toward the Western Gulf; which should keep most of the affects south of the Panhandle beaches (due to high pressure forecast to build westward from the Atlantic Coast, blocking the developing storm from recurving).

However, tropical systems can be very unpredictable, and I strongly urge anyone planning travel to the Gulf Coast or Florida to monitor the latest tropical weather information....just in case.

THANX!!