Breakdown in the Easterlies

[Frank2]

As opposed to a week or two ago, the easterlies are distrupted right now due to the large ULL in the Western Atlantic (and another ULL to it's east). Apparently the subtropical high has moved northeast for the time being (more of an Azores high than a Bermuda high) - we'll see if it stays that way, since that'd make for more recurving systems later in the season...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

per the GFS, it's to remain to the northeast of it's usual position at least through the next 7-9 days:

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/10d/gfsx_500p_10d.html

[KWT]

Yeah the Azores high has been well displaced recently but is gonig to return back to its normal placement soon.

That being said the ECM still shows a fairly decent upper ridge across the Atlantic and the 168hrs upper chart is actually something horrid for the SE USA if it were to occur with a TC in place as well from the CV region. I think rather then hoping the upper high is really weak this season, we are going to have to hope it is so strong it shunts everything strong off to the south like we saw in 2007...

[Macrocane]

Yeah the Azores high has been well displaced recently but is gonig to return back to its normal placement soon.

That being said the ECM still shows a fairly decent upper ridge across the Atlantic and the 168hrs upper chart is actually something horrid for the SE USA if it were to occur with a TC in place as well from the CV region. I think rather then hoping the upper high is really weak this season, we are going to have to hope it is so strong it shunts everything strong off to the south like we saw in 2007...

Thank you, send it to us the already ravaged Central America

I think it's better to be prepared in every part of the basin and hope for other people and governments to be prepared.

[KWT]

Sorry I actually did not mean for it to sound like that, I was meaning to say it'd be better for the US because the current pattern combined with a La Nina tends to suggest systems probably getting often far enough west to have to hit land...obviously for you guys in CA your going to want enough of a weakness to lift the thing out.

One worrying factor I do have to point out though is La Ninas tend to relaly badly target the Yucatan region and Mexico in general, many of the biggest beasts of all time have struck in La Ninas, the likes of Janet, Carman, Mitch, Gilbert, Dean and Felix....and there are some I've missed so that part of the world needs to be on red alert, its probably the most prone part of the basin in La Ninas...

Of course it'd be best if they fish, but the upper high is looking fairly strong and even though I think that will weaken a touch and allow for some weaknesses, I think a decent number get past.

[hurricaneCW]

Sorry I actually did not mean for it to sound like that, I was meaning to say it'd be better for the US because the current pattern combined with a La Nina tends to suggest systems probably getting often far enough west to have to hit land...obviously for you guys in CA your going to want enough of a weakness to lift the thing out.

One worrying factor I do have to point out though is La Ninas tend to relaly badly target the Yucatan region and Mexico in general, many of the biggest beasts of all time have struck in La Ninas, the likes of Janet, Carman, Mitch, Gilbert, Dean and Felix....and there are some I've missed so that part of the world needs to be on red alert, its probably the most prone part of the basin in La Ninas...

Of course it'd be best if they fish, but the upper high is looking fairly strong and even though I think that will weaken a touch and allow for some weaknesses, I think a decent number get past.

Wouldn't that increase the risk of east coast landfalls if we get a few Cape Verde storms. If the high is going to be as strong as you say it is, than storms traveling long distances are less likely to curve out to sea.

[KWT]

More then likely it will indeed increase the risk for the east coast, I think the SE coast is very at risk this season but yeah the east coast in general is also at higher risk.

[Frank2]

Wow - the two ULL's are even more pronounced today (that crazy magnet must be to blame)...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

In any case, the Bermuda high is on vacation - in the Azores...

LOL

[KWT]

For now but I'm worried about the upper high and the way it sits over the W.Gulf coast states later on with a weak upper trough near the east coast, with the pattern being a retrograding upper high...

That pattern is very condusive for just about all parts of the Gulf being at high risk of a landfall, and also very condusive for both Mexico hits and east coast hits at times...in other words its just about the perfect set-up for a broad swathe of the basin's landmass to be threatened by storms.

[JPmia]

I'm glad you posted something about the steering patterns because we haven't had much discussion about the current and future setup during the heart of the season. Typically about this time during the season we have lots of conjecture about the steering patterns during the August-September. Not so much this year it seems, guess Alex and TD2 are distracting us.

[KWT]

I do think FWIW there will be a decent number that fish as well, the upper high situation will probably allow a weakness out around 50-60W which could well lift things out though obviously that would also raise the risk to the E.Caribbean and obviously a couple are likely to get past that, esp if the set-up is only weak and doesn't constantly repeat.

[Frank2]

The NHC's seasonal forecast of "exceptionally busy or average" is beginning to make sense, since conditions can either be, well, exceptionally favorable for development or just average, based on many factors (troughs, ULL's, SAL, TUTT, etc.), and none of them really having anything to do with the dissipating El Nino, so proof again that "El Nino or no El Nino" really isn't the only factor, since it takes more than an oven to bake a cake...

Frank

[KWT]

Totally agree, the state of the ENSO can give away huge hints of what can happen overall, esp if they become strong events but they aren't always totally perfect indicators.

That being said I think the conditions are pretty decent, not as condusive as 2005 clearly but you don't need a season like 2005 to have multiple major landfalls...