ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - DISCUSSION

[Florida1118]

Will they possibly discontinue TD 2 in the next 30 min?

I wish. Surely they can't still forecast it to be a 40-45 kt TS at landfall, though. Winds look to be about 25 kts now, but that's not due to an LLC, it's the wind speed all across the Gulf from the western Caribbean to the TX coast.

I guess will see in a few minutes...

[wxman57]

Will they possibly discontinue TD 2 in the next 30 min?

I wish. Surely they can't still forecast it to be a 40-45 kt TS at landfall, though. Winds look to be about 25 kts now, but that's not due to an LLC, it's the wind speed all across the Gulf from the western Caribbean to the TX coast.

I guess will see in a few minutes...

Not a few minutes, about 45 minutes. Advisories are issued between 4:30am and 5am EDT. Minutes are getting longer by the hour this time of night...

[Florida1118]

Whoops. CDT not EDT. Well, dont think I can go till 5ish. See you all tomorrow( if were even talking about a TC anymore)

[tailgater]

Tropical Depression TWO Public Advisory
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Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive

US Watch/Warning
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000
WTNT32 KNHC 080833
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022010
400 AM CDT THU JUL 08 2010

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BRING RAINS TO SOUTHERN TEXAS AND
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO....

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 95.2W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM ESE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM ENE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FROM SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TEXAS TO RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.2 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INLAND NEAR THE TEXAS-MEXICO BORDER LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE DEPRESSION BECOMES A
TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MOVING INLAND.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO AND COASTAL TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10
INCHES.

WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...RAINBANDS WITH
GUSTY WINDS ARE ALREADY APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN TEXAS AND
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO COASTS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Hurricane Andrew]

I think this depression was a waste of time. 95L looked better then this.

[KWT]

Presentation is really poor with this system, had it not been upgraded last night I'd be surprised if it were upgraded today as well with that presentation.

Some deeper convection is trying to develop on the southern side but TS status remains rather unlikely to be honest.

[cwachal]

radar and sat shows an increase in convection near the center maybe we will see more convection right up till landfall and maybe surface obs will show TS force winds and we will see an upgrade

[tailgater]

Yea it's starting to pluse up again and de plane is the way. it might tighten up a little as it nears the coast and with the strong pressure gradient could become a weak TS IMHO.

[abajan]

radar and sat shows an increase in convection near the center maybe we will see more convection right up till landfall and maybe surface obs will show TS force winds and we will see an upgrade

Keep hope alive!
In all seriousness, those in the watch/warning area should continue to follow advisories and not let their guard down because although winds may not pose much of a problem there’s still the threat of flooding.

[KWT]

All I think the convection maybe able to do is help to re-develop any LLC if it has loosend up a little like some people have been thinking. I still think a TS is a little unlikely but we shall see...

[tailgater]

Just looking at the WV loops and pressure readings along the Gulf, I would think TD2 might continue NW well inland. What do yall think?

[KWT]

radar and sat shows an increase in convection near the center maybe we will see more convection right up till landfall and maybe surface obs will show TS force winds and we will see an upgrade

Its possible but to be honest I think its more probable this remains a TD rather then being upgraded. Still watch to see if deep convection does develop before landfall.

[Hurricane Andrew]

radar and sat shows an increase in convection near the center maybe we will see more convection right up till landfall and maybe surface obs will show TS force winds and we will see an upgrade

Its possible but to be honest I think its more probable this remains a TD rather then being upgraded. Still watch to see if deep convection does develop before landfall.

Convection increasing already.

[Nederlander]

Convection increasing already.

Not very much considering its D-Max

[cycloneye]

I would like to see deep red and black colors in the convection to then jump on the Bonnie bandwagon.

[tailgater]

Is that an eddy or is the TD just east of Brownsville now and moving to the WNW quickly, with all the convection to the S and SE. probably just an eddy.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... O&loop=yes

[Portastorm]

I've seen more convection from the sea breeze, but the moisture pumping into the state cannot be mistaken. Dew points running in the mid 70s as far north as Austin. Diurnal processes will cook this moist air into plenty of daytime storms inland ... and ... unfortunately for the folks along the Rio Grande, more flooding.

[ronjon]

Gee, 95L was a tropical depression and 96L isn't to me. What the heck is going on at the NHC? Suppose it depends on what shift of folks make the call. Hey, NHC, consistency please.

[Nederlander]

Gee, 95L was a tropical depression and 96L isn't to me. What the heck is going on at the NHC? Suppose it depends on what shift of folks make the call. Hey, NHC, consistency please.

I share your feelings. 95L was a TD.. 92L was also a TD if not a TS.. I do believe 96L is a TD though.. of course its not going to look like a hurricane, its just a TD.. convection may be lacking but there is still circulation there.. its NW of the convection and will be making its way inland over the next few hours..

[KWT]

Hmmm its probably 50-50 whether its a TD now, it is regaining at least some moderate convection which is a good sign for it at least holding steady compared to the weakening we saw last night.