ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - DISCUSSION

[Stormcenter]

Hopefully the rains aren't too bad for Mexico/Texas.

[Sanibel]

ULL toast.

[Brent]

This storm looks HIDEOUS. I'm doubting it becomes Bonnie...

[Florida1118]

I just saw TWC update.....wow. The Lady on there was trying to think how to talk...I dont blame her. "The Depression is......um...In that mass of cloudiness....and its uh...not to strong...and um...." Not criticizing anyone here, just saying it was hard for her to find it and explain that it is a depression. Kind of hard for anyone really.

[ROCK]

Hopefully the rains aren't too bad for Mexico/Texas.

IMO, its going to be worse off down where TD makes landfall if you can call it that. For us I think we are going to get less training than we did with Alex. High builds back in on Friday and drier weather prevails into the weekend...

[Weatherfreak000]

Oh geez....95L wasn't a good enough lesson for some of you guys? That system had NO convection whatsoever.



Tomorrow may prove to be a crow day.

[Annie Oakley]

This is downright awesome for everyone lol!

[latitude_20]

I keep trying to remind myself it's only a TD, but this is one busted mess of a system.

[wxman57]

Having a wonderful time at work. Nothing like a triple shift for this "depression". Surface obs no longer support an LLC. Center appears to have been stretched out NW-SE and may have dissipated. TS chances appear to be remote. Buoy to the south of the center still has a SE wind at 15 kts. So either it's spinning anticyclonically or it's lost its circulation. Not many showers, either.

[South Texas Storms]

Having a wonderful time at work. Nothing like a triple shift for this "depression". Surface obs no longer support an LLC. Center appears to have been stretched out NW-SE and may have dissipated. TS chances appear to be remote. Buoy to the south of the center still has a SE wind at 15 kts. So either it's spinning anticyclonically or it's lost its circulation. Not many showers, either.

so does this mean less rain for texas?

[wxman57]

Having a wonderful time at work. Nothing like a triple shift for this "depression". Surface obs no longer support an LLC. Center appears to have been stretched out NW-SE and may have dissipated. TS chances appear to be remote. Buoy to the south of the center still has a SE wind at 15 kts. So either it's spinning anticyclonically or it's lost its circulation. Not many showers, either.

so does this mean less rain for texas?

Not necessarily. The low will produce quite a bit of instability over south Texas over the next 36-48hrs. Afternoon heating will create quite a few storms, I'm sure.

[South Texas Storms]

ok thanks. i just looked at the updated hpc qpf forecasts for the next 2 days and they have 4-5 inches over most of south texas. with how td 2 is looking...im having trouble believing that.

[South Texas Storms]

why is TD 2 weakening? there isnt any shear affecting it...is there?

[wxman57]

why is TD 2 weakening? there isnt any shear affecting it...is there?

There's just no convergence at the surface and poor outflow aloft. The upper low to the west is accelerating moisture northwestward toward the mid Texas coast. Looks like the center, if there is one, may be moving at close to 18 kts now. Obs offshore don't indicate an LLC, though.

Here's an updated Gulf satellite loop. If there is a center, it looks to be around 25.4N/95.4W and racing NW. Could be at 24.5N/95W, I suppose. Hard to tell. May be on the coast in 6 hrs or so. Very little shower activity associated with it now:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/gom.gif

Where is everybody? Oh, sure, you all beg for an upgrade then you go to bed leaving me here at work and talking to myself all night about this "depression".

[WxGuy1]

why is TD 2 weakening? there isnt any shear affecting it...is there?

IR imagery showed warming cloud tops even before the NHC "upgraded" the invest to TD2. I have to say that this is one of the worst satellite presentations of a freshly-upgraded tropical depression that I've seen for a few years. The Brownsville WSR88D doesn't show much, though I guess I can see some "twisting" in the core of showers approx 145-150 miles SE of Brownsville at this time. Save for a few gates/bins, max reflectivity within that "core" of showers is 35-39 dBZ. There aren't many buoys S of the latitude of BRO, unfortunately; we really only have buoy 42055 E of Tampico, but that's quite a ways from this fresh "TD" now, so I'm not sure we can use it to say with certainty that there's no LLC with TD2.

I haven't looked at all of the recon data from this evening, but how many obs did they collect that supported a TD? Between this and INVEST 95 a couple of days ago, there are some strange happenings... Of course, systems tend to be less definitive when they are weak (e.g. borderline TDs), so I suppose this isn't that usual. Just strange, IMO.

[wxman57]

Here's a new sfc plot with satellite overlay. Near as I can tell, what's left of the center is in that red circle. Nothing to see on radar. Offshore obs don't support an LLC.

[Florida1118]

Will they possibly discontinue TD 2 in the next 30 min?

[Brent]

NEXT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Florida1118]

If Bonnie is in there, she needs a major face lift.

[wxman57]

Will they possibly discontinue TD 2 in the next 30 min?

I wish. Surely they can't still forecast it to be a 40-45 kt TS at landfall, though. Winds look to be about 25 kts now, but that's not due to an LLC, it's the wind speed all across the Gulf from the western Caribbean to the TX coast.