ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - DISCUSSION

[Annie Oakley]

cause it seems to be the consensus lol

[HURAKAN]

07/2345 UTC 23.8N 93.6W T1.5/1.5 96L -- Atlantic

up from 1.0

[ozonepete]

Please explain to me why there seems to be so much more convection over and near the Yucatan than near the "center" of a possibly organizing(not anymore imo)tropical system. Or am I reading this loop wrong? 96L has definitely perplexed me.

David, my guess would be either:

1) sea breeze thunderstorms, since we often see huge convective blowups over the Yucatan with or without a tropical disturbance nearby, or

2) enhanced convergence on the east side of the tropical disturbance creating a fairly stout convective band, or

3) some combination of 1 and 2.

YEs. That's fairly common to see when a tropical cyclone is to the west of the Yucatan. As the sea breeze thunderstorms converge over the mainland late in the day, they develop a thunderstorm cluster that can cover most of the Yucatan peninsula. The upper level NORTHWESTERLY flow from the outflow over the tropical cyclone adds divergence over the thunderstorm cluster that developed allowing it to become like a typical MCS (mesoscale Convective Complex). It usually gets elongated in the same direction as the anticyclonic outflow above the TS, if the TS has one.

Sorry! I fixed that big error. It's the northwesterly flow up at 250-200mb that causes divergence overhead if the cyclone is west of the Yucatan.

[tailgater]

07/2345 UTC 23.8N 93.6W T1.5/1.5 96L -- Atlantic

up from 1.0

That's just about where the plane found a center 23.7N 93.6W

[HURAKAN]

Looking for an increase in convection in the overnight hours

[Annie Oakley]

Prepare and spread the word Texans.

[cycloneye]

Is tracking thru a cool pool of water caused by Alex.

[Comanche]

OMG, are you guys lying to yourselves??? Seriously, look at an IR loop, hell look at any loop you want. This "thing" isn't even on life support anymore, no this is a case of not letting go, "keeping the corpse in the basement to collect the social security check".

Be honest with yourselves, this looks nothing less than AWFUL.

Truly, look at this loop- http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-avn.html

[ozonepete]

Is tracking thru a cool pool of water caused by Alex.

Nice! We all forgot about that. Well, not all of us...

[wxman57]

1 more hour of the loop added. Cloud tops still warming:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/gom.gif

[ozonepete]

OMG, are you guys lying to yourselves??? Seriously, look at an IR loop, hell look at any loop you want. This "thing" isn't even on life support anymore, no this is a case of not letting go, "keeping the corpse in the basement to collect the social security check".

Be honest with yourselves, this looks nothing less than AWFUL.

Truly, look at this loop- http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-avn.html

It's not what you see on those loops that matters. It's what's going on in the atmosphere, and what will happen over the next 24 hours, that matters.

[wxman57]

Organized convection is one criterion for upgrade. I don't think it could be argued that this disturbance has any organized convection.

[Comanche]

OMG, are you guys lying to yourselves??? Seriously, look at an IR loop, hell look at any loop you want. This "thing" isn't even on life support anymore, no this is a case of not letting go, "keeping the corpse in the basement to collect the social security check".

Be honest with yourselves, this looks nothing less than AWFUL.

Truly, look at this loop- http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-avn.html

It's not what you see on those loops that matters. It's what's going on in the atmosphere, and what will happen over the next 24 hours, that matters.

Like moving onshore???? That will be bullish for developement.

[xcool22]

wxman57 ilke that Satellite image

[cycloneye]

Is tracking thru a cool pool of water caused by Alex.

Nice! We all forgot about that. Well, not all of us...

Yes,I thought more members would be talking about this important factor.

[Annie Oakley]

Comanche checked us ....and the darned storm is a Changeling ha ha. I hope she stays ashore.

[funster]

Organized convection is one criterion for upgrade. I don't think it could be argued that this disturbance has any organized convection.

Seems like there has been convection circling around it since it left the Yucatan. Enough for a TD for sure.

[JonathanBelles]

Looks like recon is confirming a closed MLC to LLC. I would say this is a Tropical Depression now. Convection is waning now though. :|

[ozonepete]

Look at this IR image. It reminds me of Alex, in that this system is beginning to get disconnected from the strong SE to NW flow around the western edge of the STR. Notice how its flow is becoming more circular and disengaged from the southeasterly flow it was embedded in for the last couple of days.

[cycloneye]

We have TD 2

invest_RENUMBER_al962010_al022010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201007080225
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 022010.ren