ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - DISCUSSION
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- wxman57
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - DISCUSSION
Cloud tops continue to warm as convection appears to diminish. That's a good sign. Also, buoy pressure to the south is rising and winds are still calm.
Last edited by wxman57 on Wed Jul 07, 2010 8:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - DISCUSSION
wxman57 wrote:Cloud tops continue to warm as convection appears to diminish. That's a good sign.
???
On RBG i saw new plumes developing.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - DISCUSSION
wxman57 wrote:Cloud tops continue to warm as convection appears to diminish. That's a good sign. Also, buoy pressure to the south is rising and winds are still calm.
Yes and very quickly, someone pulled the plug.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - DISCUSSION
wxman57 wrote:Cloud tops continue to warm as convection appears to diminish. That's a good sign. Also, buoy pressure to the south is rising and winds are still calm.
yep but the pressure rise is normal considering its moving away from the buoy... still weak pressure gradient though
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - DISCUSSION
wxman57 wrote:Cloud tops continue to warm as convection appears to diminish. That's a good sign. Also, buoy pressure to the south is rising and winds are still calm.
Well if it carries on the NHC may well be delayed in upgrading it, though for now we could just say it is a function of D-min...we shall see what happens in the next few hours.
As you've said before though, its not going to really make much of a difference whether it makes it or not really, still going to be a pretty miserable day tomorrow for a good portion of Texas.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
- wxman57
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - DISCUSSION
Hurricane Andrew wrote:wxman57 wrote:Cloud tops continue to warm as convection appears to diminish. That's a good sign.
???
On RBG i saw new plumes developing.
Try this loop I just made:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/gom.gif
Not much evidence there of increasing organization. I'd expect the NHC would be looking for some significant convective increase to upgrade.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - DISCUSSION
The big issue here is the same as it was with Alex. It started out as, and is still, a part of an elongated low pressure wave/trough. Elongated systems are (of course!) not circular, and non-circular or non-symmetric lows cannot allow for maximum vorticity into the center. The way this is racing northwestward without consolidating into a more circular system tells you that it can't ramp up. Alex was able to because it moved more westward out of the SE to NW flow - i.e. it moved westward out of the fast SE to NW flow and that allowed it to consolidate and develop. This one seems like it's embedded in that flow for good so it will never "break out of it" and become more circular.
But what I was trying to say before is that even though it will never break out of that SE to NW flow and has little time left, the NHC will probably have to issue TS warnings even if they don't think it will reach true TS, because in the right front quadrant you will have to add the forward speed of 10-15 mph on top of 25 to 35mph winds. That will cause TS winds at the coast north of the center. In effect, it will be a TS regardless of the storm relative winds.
But what I was trying to say before is that even though it will never break out of that SE to NW flow and has little time left, the NHC will probably have to issue TS warnings even if they don't think it will reach true TS, because in the right front quadrant you will have to add the forward speed of 10-15 mph on top of 25 to 35mph winds. That will cause TS winds at the coast north of the center. In effect, it will be a TS regardless of the storm relative winds.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - DISCUSSION
It has been continuing to slowly organize since last night. Still has time to become Bonnie. So say we all.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - DISCUSSION
It has one last chance to get organized. Convection has basically fallen apart this evening. I don't think it will be upgraded tonight, not with its current convective look. Seems to be somewhat of a lack of convergence with this system. This afternoon I could see outflow boundaries moving away from many of the thunderstorms. Will have to see what it looks like in the morning. I am more concerned about extra water into the Rio Grande.
Also it does not seem to have much rainfall with it at the moment.. as it moves inland you will have a pretty good convergence zone set up so rainfall will probably fill in nicely from the just below the upper texas coast down towards Brownsville, Hopefully it does not get hung up over Mexico south of the Big Bend again.
Also it does not seem to have much rainfall with it at the moment.. as it moves inland you will have a pretty good convergence zone set up so rainfall will probably fill in nicely from the just below the upper texas coast down towards Brownsville, Hopefully it does not get hung up over Mexico south of the Big Bend again.
Last edited by hriverajr on Wed Jul 07, 2010 8:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Looking at the satellite loops it almost seems as though a system moving this quickly is virtually sheering itself?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - DISCUSSION
As that burst of convection dies out over the Yucatan it will allow an increase over 96L. It's a balance of kinetic energy. I still think it will just make TS before landfall, but unfortunately probably right at the last minute.
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Last images indicate a TD as the Sun set. No doubt for Katdaddy. We shall see overnight if its official.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - DISCUSSION
wxman57 wrote:Hurricane Andrew wrote:wxman57 wrote:Cloud tops continue to warm as convection appears to diminish. That's a good sign.
???
On RBG i saw new plumes developing.
Try this loop I just made:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/gom.gif
Not much evidence there of increasing organization. I'd expect the NHC would be looking for some significant convective increase to upgrade.
Please explain to me why there seems to be so much more convection over and near the Yucatan than near the "center" of a possibly organizing(not anymore imo)tropical system. Or am I reading this loop wrong? 96L has definitely perplexed me.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - DISCUSSION
Nederlander wrote:Over my head wrote:Couple times today I have heard (read) members posts say the rain we are having in SETX is 96L related. Is it? Or is it Remnants of Alex or even 95L...or something all by itself not related to any other system out there?
edited to learn to put images in posts correctly.
Pretty sure its because of the ULL slinging moisture inland.. could be wrong
Thanks for answering Nederlander. Nearly missed this post. Is the ULL the same dotted line ozonepete was pointing me to?Trying to keep up and learn without asking too many questions.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - DISCUSSION
vbhoutex wrote:Please explain to me why there seems to be so much more convection over and near the Yucatan than near the "center" of a possibly organizing(not anymore imo)tropical system. Or am I reading this loop wrong? 96L has definitely perplexed me.
they are from sea breeze boundaries
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - DISCUSSION
vbhoutex wrote: Please explain to me why there seems to be so much more convection over and near the Yucatan than near the "center" of a possibly organizing(not anymore imo)tropical system. Or am I reading this loop wrong? 96L has definitely perplexed me.
David, my guess would be either:
1) sea breeze thunderstorms, since we often see huge convective blowups over the Yucatan with or without a tropical disturbance nearby, or
2) enhanced convergence on the east side of the tropical disturbance creating a fairly stout convective band, or
3) some combination of 1 and 2.
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