ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - DISCUSSION

[wxman57]

Cloud tops continue to warm as convection appears to diminish. That's a good sign. Also, buoy pressure to the south is rising and winds are still calm.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Cloud tops continue to warm as convection appears to diminish. That's a good sign.

???
On RBG i saw new plumes developing.

[tailgater]

Cloud tops continue to warm as convection appears to diminish. That's a good sign. Also, buoy pressure to the south is rising and winds are still calm.

Yes and very quickly, someone pulled the plug.

[Aric Dunn]

Cloud tops continue to warm as convection appears to diminish. That's a good sign. Also, buoy pressure to the south is rising and winds are still calm.

yep but the pressure rise is normal considering its moving away from the buoy... still weak pressure gradient though

[KWT]

Cloud tops continue to warm as convection appears to diminish. That's a good sign. Also, buoy pressure to the south is rising and winds are still calm.

Well if it carries on the NHC may well be delayed in upgrading it, though for now we could just say it is a function of D-min...we shall see what happens in the next few hours.

As you've said before though, its not going to really make much of a difference whether it makes it or not really, still going to be a pretty miserable day tomorrow for a good portion of Texas.

[Ivanhater]

[wxman57]

Cloud tops continue to warm as convection appears to diminish. That's a good sign.

???
On RBG i saw new plumes developing.

Try this loop I just made:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/gom.gif

Not much evidence there of increasing organization. I'd expect the NHC would be looking for some significant convective increase to upgrade.

[ozonepete]

The big issue here is the same as it was with Alex. It started out as, and is still, a part of an elongated low pressure wave/trough. Elongated systems are (of course!) not circular, and non-circular or non-symmetric lows cannot allow for maximum vorticity into the center. The way this is racing northwestward without consolidating into a more circular system tells you that it can't ramp up. Alex was able to because it moved more westward out of the SE to NW flow - i.e. it moved westward out of the fast SE to NW flow and that allowed it to consolidate and develop. This one seems like it's embedded in that flow for good so it will never "break out of it" and become more circular.

But what I was trying to say before is that even though it will never break out of that SE to NW flow and has little time left, the NHC will probably have to issue TS warnings even if they don't think it will reach true TS, because in the right front quadrant you will have to add the forward speed of 10-15 mph on top of 25 to 35mph winds. That will cause TS winds at the coast north of the center. In effect, it will be a TS regardless of the storm relative winds.

[funster]

It has been continuing to slowly organize since last night. Still has time to become Bonnie. So say we all.

[cwachal]

convection is waning... unless more convection develops soon we wont see TD2 because it will take all day tomorrow to get convection again if nothing develops tonight and then it will be out of time

[hriverajr]

It has one last chance to get organized. Convection has basically fallen apart this evening. I don't think it will be upgraded tonight, not with its current convective look. Seems to be somewhat of a lack of convergence with this system. This afternoon I could see outflow boundaries moving away from many of the thunderstorms. Will have to see what it looks like in the morning. I am more concerned about extra water into the Rio Grande.

Also it does not seem to have much rainfall with it at the moment.. as it moves inland you will have a pretty good convergence zone set up so rainfall will probably fill in nicely from the just below the upper texas coast down towards Brownsville, Hopefully it does not get hung up over Mexico south of the Big Bend again.

[summersquall]

Looking at the satellite loops it almost seems as though a system moving this quickly is virtually sheering itself?

[ozonepete]

As that burst of convection dies out over the Yucatan it will allow an increase over 96L. It's a balance of kinetic energy. I still think it will just make TS before landfall, but unfortunately probably right at the last minute.

[hriverajr]

Looking at the satellite loops it almost seems as though a system moving this quickly is virtually sheering itself?

Shear is diminishing.. ULL to the west moving off and filling a bit.

[KatDaddy]

Last images indicate a TD as the Sun set. No doubt for Katdaddy. We shall see overnight if its official.

[vbhoutex]

Cloud tops continue to warm as convection appears to diminish. That's a good sign.

???
On RBG i saw new plumes developing.

Try this loop I just made:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/gom.gif

Not much evidence there of increasing organization. I'd expect the NHC would be looking for some significant convective increase to upgrade.

Please explain to me why there seems to be so much more convection over and near the Yucatan than near the "center" of a possibly organizing(not anymore imo)tropical system. Or am I reading this loop wrong? 96L has definitely perplexed me.

[Over my head]

Couple times today I have heard (read) members posts say the rain we are having in SETX is 96L related. Is it? Or is it Remnants of Alex or even 95L...or something all by itself not related to any other system out there?

edited to learn to put images in posts correctly.

Pretty sure its because of the ULL slinging moisture inland.. could be wrong

Thanks for answering Nederlander. Nearly missed this post. Is the ULL the same dotted line ozonepete was pointing me to?Trying to keep up and learn without asking too many questions.

[Aric Dunn]

Please explain to me why there seems to be so much more convection over and near the Yucatan than near the "center" of a possibly organizing(not anymore imo)tropical system. Or am I reading this loop wrong? 96L has definitely perplexed me.

they are from sea breeze boundaries

[AJC3]

Please explain to me why there seems to be so much more convection over and near the Yucatan than near the "center" of a possibly organizing(not anymore imo)tropical system. Or am I reading this loop wrong? 96L has definitely perplexed me.

David, my guess would be either:

1) sea breeze thunderstorms, since we often see huge convective blowups over the Yucatan with or without a tropical disturbance nearby, or

2) enhanced convergence on the east side of the tropical disturbance creating a fairly stout convective band, or

3) some combination of 1 and 2.

[Annie Oakley]

#1 is my guess.....