ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - DISCUSSION

[Weatherfreak000]

Excellent outlook by the NHC here, 80%, waiting on Recon to confirm.


Couldn't agree more. It makes it that much sweeter then you actually DO agree with the outlooks.

[Over my head]

ooooooooooooo By the skin of his teeth! Not declared a depression yet so free lunch for wxman57

[Air Force Met]

Not shocked I say...

Also...290 miles SE of the TX/Mexico border places it near 23N/94W...

[KWT]

Excellent outlook by the NHC here, 80%, waiting on Recon to confirm.

Yeah, I personally thought they were going to go about 70% but the fact they've gone to 80% and pretty much said the depression is almost there now with just probably small improvements to be made before they decide to upgrade, chances are looking decent enough for an upgrade in 6-9hrs time.

ps, I'd be surprised if it was a s far south as 23N, but really without a clear looking at the lower levels its just guesses, even for the NHC.

[Aric Dunn]

Not shocked I say...

Also...290 miles SE of the TX/Mexico border places it near 23N/94W...

which is 1 degree north of the buoy...pretty weak winds...

[CrazyC83]

TD2 (should be TD3 IMO) at 10 pm CDT it looks like?

[Aric Dunn]

Excellent outlook by the NHC here, 80%, waiting on Recon to confirm.

Yeah, I personally thought they were going to go about 70% but the fact they've gone to 80% and pretty much said the depression is almost there now with just probably small improvements to be made before they decide to upgrade, chances are looking decent enough for an upgrade in 6-9hrs time.

ps, I'd be surprised if it was a s far south as 23N, but really without a clear looking at the lower levels its just guesses, even for the NHC.

there are noaa planes out there the guessing by the NHC is probably pretty minimal ...lol 23 N is reasonable

[AdamFirst]

Alex redux? I haven't been paying attention over the past couple days.

[HURAKAN]

00z

AL, 96, 2010070800, , BEST, 0, 235N, 938W, 30, 1005, LO

35 mph, 1005 mb

[ozonepete]

wxman57, is that true? Your bet was on operational and not the color codes as well? So you got your lunch.

[Aric Dunn]

hehe.. the buoy now has 0kts.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

[ozonepete]

I'm guessing center 23.6N, 94.0W

[ozonepete]

hehe.. the buoy now has 0kts.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

Now what could that mean? Busted?

[Aric Dunn]

hehe.. the buoy now has 0kts.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

Now what could that mean? Busted?

well simply put... very weak pressure gradient.. the distance from the buoy to the estimated center is about 100 miles and if the pressure of the system is around 1005 mb then the pressure gradient over that 100 miles is only a 2mb drop. so its unlikely there are much higher winds that 15 to 20kts sustained out there.. locally in some T'storms maybe

[ozonepete]

Aric, that bouy is a hundred miles south of where the center may be.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, that bouy is a hundred miles south of where the center may be.

yes it is but provides great data ...

[Air Force Met]

hehe.. the buoy now has 0kts.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

Probably in the COL...

[cycloneye]

00z

AL, 96, 2010070800, , BEST, 0, 235N, 938W, 30, 1005, LO

35 mph, 1005 mb

Now we watch for this:

invest_RENUMBER

[wxman57]

Not shocked I say...

Also...290 miles SE of the TX/Mexico border places it near 23N/94W...

I wonder what data the plane is getting? Just flight level obs or are they dropping dropwindsondes? Radar? Perhaps an LLC is forming beneath what looks like an MLC in the convection? Bad timing for me, as after working from 6am to 5pm looks like I'll have to head back to the office to work all night if they upgrade at 10. At least model guidance header still said "Invest 96L".

[Aric Dunn]

hehe.. the buoy now has 0kts.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

Probably in the COL...

I was thinking that as i looked at the past few hours plot .. the winds were a little higher up to 20kts when the estimated center was closer or over that buoy..