ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - DISCUSSION

[hurricanedude]

I agree.....they will upgrade when they see fit....if peeps want to name storms then the need to go to the NHC website and apply for a job. otherwise let them do there job.

[Macrocane]

Okay, this post may be erased by mods, but what the heck is everybody's deal with an upgrade? This piece of crap isn't worthy of much more than a vigorous wave. If they name it, all it does is put a feather in the caps of those who make ridiculous claims for a cataclysmic season. Upgrade yes...WHEN IT IS NECESSARY! This is NOT going to be a major hurricane and advanced warning will be moot to most people. For all intensive purposes, the storm has hit....I'm sitting on the north side of Houston (The Woodlands) and every freeway in the city is jammed. Multiple streets are experiencing high water and there is even wind damage. So please, enough with the upgrade stuff. Rant over.

IMO the function of the NHC is to monitor the development and progress of tropical disturbances and tropical cylones naming and upgrading them wether they affect land or not, the NHC DO NOT upgrade the storms when necessary if that would be the case then most of EPAC systems wouldn't have a name because the rarely affect land.

And BAck on topic, 96 L has not become better organized in the last few hours but it still has the potential to become a minimal TS before landfall, that's my unofficial opinion.

[ozonepete]

Discussions of marginal systems tend to be some of the most contentious around here. Not gonna single anyone out, but just let me ask that we keep our disagreements civil, toward each other, and toward any proefessional met or met agency that may be thrown into the conversation. Thx.

Exactly. This is supposed to be a spirited debate about what's going on with the system, and we are bound to disagree at times. Then we just disagree, civilly and professionally. It's supposed to be fun as well (I hope). Just everyone, try to back up your opinion that it will or will not develop with good science.

[wxman57]

Can someone give me an update on what we have moving ashore (HOU/ gal) in the next few hours?

In denver flying into hobby around 830..hate to be delayed..

Thanks guys..the ole BB won't access loops so I am missing all the fun...

There are a few storms around, some with heavy rain, but I don't think it's enough to cause any delays here. Maybe some very brief ground stops as thunderstorms pass over Hobby in the next few hours.

[HURAKAN]

vorticity is deeper

[KWT]

Its a close thing, I can see arguements for staying and upgrading. I do think 95L was more organised as it was coming inland then this is, but this system has a good deal longer then 95L had when it was tightening up.

I see nothing really wrong with the NHC waiting to see what happens in the next 6hrs, as there really won't be any difference with regards to the impact it'll have, there will be flooding regardless...

[wxman57]

Just looking at latest loops, I could put the center even north of 25N and close to 95W. Maybe NW of there. That's well NW of any significant convection. And it would mean it'll be ashore before sunrise. Free lunch in 32 minutes...

[HURAKAN]

Unless there's a ship report that indicates this is a depression or storm, the NHC would likely wait until the morning for visible images. Don't matter if the system becomes better organized.

[ozonepete]

vorticity is deeper

Yes, but still stretched off to the NNW and then N due to its entrainment into that fast flow around the western edge of the STR. That is what's keeping it from intensifying faster. It will be really close as to whether it can consolidate before it gets too close to land.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Lol, these storms that hover just below name status is bringing the best out of everyone.

[Tireman4]

Just looking at latest loops, I could put the center even north of 25N and close to 95W. Maybe NW of there. That's well NW of any significant convection. And it would mean it'll be ashore before sunrise. Free lunch in 32 minutes...

\
What did you pick? BBQ?

[lonelymike]

Discussions of marginal systems tend to be some of the most contentious around here. Not gonna single anyone out, but just let me ask that we keep our disagreements civil, toward each other, and toward any proefessional met or met agency that may be thrown into the conversation. Thx.

Exactly. This is supposed to be a spirited debate about what's going on with the system, and we are bound to disagree at times. Then we just disagree, civilly and professionally. It's supposed to be fun as well (I hope). Just everyone, try to back up your opinion that it will or will not develop with good science.

Indeed the pro mets in here are nice enough to share their opinions with us and don't need to get bashed or questioned. Having had friends go through met school at FSU I can tell you its no easy major. So disagree with a smile if you must. I would hate to lose the opinions of wxman57, Air Force Met or Truesms and others like them because of ill considered comments.

And if they leave the only show in town will be the Euro wars nightly with Crock and Ivan

[Weatherfreak000]

I say the NHC has no reason not to upgrade this at 8...if not then at least 8 A.M. tomorrow. The only logic I can find to not upgrade a system with an obvious center and convection firing is if the environment ahead it going to rapidly become less conducive (92L and 95L)


96l still has about 24 hour, and another D-Max. The question for me really is can it use that time to get named or not...

[ozonepete]

Just looking at latest loops, I could put the center even north of 25N and close to 95W. Maybe NW of there. That's well NW of any significant convection. And it would mean it'll be ashore before sunrise. Free lunch in 32 minutes...

Lookin' like a no-brainer. Ask for the Filet Mignon.

[Air Force Met]

Just looking at latest loops, I could put the center even north of 25N and close to 95W. Maybe NW of there. That's well NW of any significant convection. And it would mean it'll be ashore before sunrise. Free lunch in 32 minutes...

I agree the trof axis goes through there...but the center is down near the convection. I see w ward moving cu at 24.8...94.

If you just trace the cu field movement around the edges of the overcast...and figure the circulation is in the center of that trace...its at around 24/94

[superfly]

Doesn't look like a TD to me, there's minimal organization around a broad low.

[wxman57]

Unless there's a ship report that indicates this is a depression or storm, the NHC would likely wait until the morning for visible images. Don't matter if the system becomes better organized.

The problem with that is the center may be quite near the coast or even inland by sunrise. Also, their main mission is public safety. A first advisory telling people on the coast they're already being hit would be of little value. Kind of like putting out a sever thunderstorm warning after the event already hits a location. They have to make a decision ASAP if they're going to upgrade. The later they wait, the less warning for the general public.

[wxman57]

Just looking at latest loops, I could put the center even north of 25N and close to 95W. Maybe NW of there. That's well NW of any significant convection. And it would mean it'll be ashore before sunrise. Free lunch in 32 minutes...

I agree the trof axis goes through there...but the center is down near the convection. I see w ward moving cu at 24.8...94.

If you just trace the cu field movement around the edges of the overcast...and figure the circulation is in the center of that trace...its at around 24/94

You have better eyes than I. I see eastward movement there, but mostly hidden by higher clouds. About time for dinner. At least it'll all be over with tomorrow and we'll have a nice, quiet weekend.

[Macrocane]

Indeed the pro mets in here are nice enough to share their opinions with us and don't need to get bashed or questioned. Having had friends go through met school at FSU I can tell you its no easy major. So disagree with a smile if you must. I would hate to lose the opinions of wxman57, Air Force Met or Truesms and others like them because of ill considered comments.

And if they leave the only show in town will be the Euro wars nightly with Crock and Ivan :D

I find intresting how even the pro-mets sometimes disagree, and in cases like 96L they tend to disagree more, I really appreciate all of their opinions.

[ROCK]

Before I take off, thanks WXMN57..

Imo, the non- upgrade of 95L was a blown call. No excuse for 96L not to be upgraded from what I am seeing. What if it pulled a Humberto? Have we forgot that radar loop out of Galveston? They upgraded a lot worse.. .

Yeah I am passionate about these things since my family lives on the west end of Galveston with no sea wall. They don't have a clue what is out there.. If the media said it was a TD they would think about leaving. You never know when one of these tigjtens up right before landfall. So some of need to realize its a lot deeper than just some "doom day" rheatoric....