ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - DISCUSSION

[drezee]

Not sure what more people could ask for in a TD. It's not like a TS or a hurricane...

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=23&lon=-93&info=vis&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=24&map=latlon

I have to agree. Especially, in the GOM and approaching land. This has 24 hours more over water...it can pop easily.

[redfish1]

looks like a TD, that new cdo is nice and appears to be moving NNW ATM....this statement has not been endorsed by the NHC, nor Starfleet Academy, nor The Vulcan Academy of Science and Culture, and certainly not the Klingons!!!!

what satellite view do you see it moving NNW?

[Air Force Met]

looks like a TD, that new cdo is nice and appears to be moving NNW ATM....this statement has not been endorsed by the NHC, nor Starfleet Academy, nor The Vulcan Academy of Science and Culture, and certainly not the Klingons!!!!

Sounds like a Romulan opinion.

"They are without honor..."

Warf

[xcool22]

i see nnw imo

[Tireman4]

looks like a TD, that new cdo is nice and appears to be moving NNW ATM....this statement has not been endorsed by the NHC, nor Starfleet Academy, nor The Vulcan Academy of Science and Culture, and certainly not the Klingons!!!!

Sounds like a Romulan opinion.

"They are without honor..."

Warf

What about the Vulcan High Command?

[wx247]

Yeah, I have to agree with AFM... wow... this is going to be interesting to watch how it plays out:

[HouTXmetro]

looks like a TD, that new cdo is nice and appears to be moving NNW ATM....this statement has not been endorsed by the NHC, nor Starfleet Academy, nor The Vulcan Academy of Science and Culture, and certainly not the Klingons!!!!

what satellite view do you see it moving NNW?

There is some discussion but if the Red L is a fix on where they think the center is then it's either moving NNW or the center has relocated. But I was told not to pay attention to the Red L on the map.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html

[KWT]

IMO looking at that image wx247 its really just a matter of time before the NHC pull the trigger, probably will see them mention a tropcial depression is forming next time IMO...and they will probably pull the trigger if it holds for another 4-6hrs.

[BigA]

I definitely could see a TS Charley 1998 scenario with this system. (And by that I mean, tropical depression forms, becomes tropical storm, makes landfall in Texas w/o a lot of fanfare, but causes inland flooding).

[wx247]

I definitely could see a TS Charley 1998 scenario with this system. (And by that I mean, tropical depression forms, becomes tropical storm, makes landfall in Texas w/o a lot of fanfare, but causes inland flooding).

I think the inland flooding is a huge potential here BigA. I think you are spot on with that concern. The HPC kind of bares that out... although I think we will see isolated higher amounts develop:



Edit to add the following material:

Snippet from NWS Brownsville AFD: "TOTAL RAIN
AMOUNTS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ARE FORECAST TO BE FROM 2 TO
4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 6 INCHES."

And from Corpus AFD: "NOW EXPECTING
TOTAL EVENT ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES AREA WIDE FROM TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 POSSIBLE. "

[KWT]

Yeah thats interesting to see how much inland flooding they are calling for...

Research mission heading towards 96L right now by the way.

[Peanut432]

WX247 I think that the newest issued map for days 1-3 has shifted that heavier rain to the Southwest.

[jasons2k]

In the old days, before the internet age and I ever heard of an "Invest", wasn't there a very clear-cut progression as follows:?

Tropical Wave
Tropical Disturbance
Tropical Depression
Tropical Storm
Hurricane

It just seems like the criteria isn't followed "to the letter" any more...and that bothers me.

[antonlsu]

Did any models see this NW movement?

[MGC]

The visable satellite loop is inconclusive. I see everything but a west wind. We need recon baby......MGC

[Ivanhater]

Did any models see this NW movement?

Yes, all of them

[thetruesms]

In the old days, before the internet age and I ever heard of an "Invest", wasn't there a very clear-cut progression as follows:?

Tropical Wave
Tropical Disturbance
Tropical Depression
Tropical Storm
Hurricane

It just seems like the criteria isn't followed "to the letter" any more...and that bothers me.

It's more that before the internet age, this early, messy part of the process was hidden from everyone because NHC was the only source of information. Now we can all pull up the latest satellite, recon, and model data ourselves and basically follow the process more quickly than it actually runs.

[antonlsu]

Looks like the models predicted more of a wnw movement.

[hriverajr]

Not the greatest of convection. But visible shows it continuing to get better organized. I would be surprised if this was not upgraded soon. Still looks to be moving just a tad north of west northwest. I'm getting concerned about Northeast Mexico again NW of Del Rio.. dams and reservoirs are totally full and this system may slow down as it gets in that area again. The ghost of Alex hung around for days just northwest of where I am located.

[Air Force Met]

The visable satellite loop is inconclusive. I see everything but a west wind. We need recon baby......MGC

Pretty clear eastward moving CU field on the Vis...could be seen near 24N/94.5W before the CI obscured it...

Plus buoy 42055 has had a NW..WNW...W wind all day...and its well away from the center...