ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - DISCUSSION

[Ivanhater]

IMO center relocations take time and this doesn't have that. I still don't think this will be upgraded before it moves inland. If it had more time I think it would be a shoe in.

95L had less time though, and we saw what happened (Or according to NHC), almost happened there.

Agree 100 percent. There are plenty of examples of storms taking off with little time. I just don't see a concentrated area of thunderstorms over the center. Taking a look at the loop, it looks more like the thunderstorms from the east blew over the center. NHC bumped chances up so well see

[HURAKAN]

18z

[johngaltfla]

It is looking better by the hour. If we can get a Bonnie out of this, I still have a good shot at 31 as predicted this year.

Let's just pray I'm wrong and that this one just stays no more than a TS or TD and fizzles on shore. The GOM is looking like we're going to take a beating this season and we haven't had a super active October in a while. The last thing the state of Florida needs now. FWIW, this is becoming a very fascinating start to the season for those of us here since the 04-05 season. Sort of reminds me of 05 every day.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[canes04]

As mentioned in my post this morning, I believe this will be classfied a TD this afternoon and Bonnie by morning.
I was pretty close on my LLC at 22 and 91.5.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 28N95W NEAR HOUSTON TEXAS TO A 1007 MB LOW CENTER
NEAR 23N93W TO 21N92W...AS OF 1500 UTC

My attention is turning to the W ATL.

[HURAKAN]

As mentioned in my post this morning, I believe this will be classfied a TD this afternoon and Bonnie by morning.
I was pretty close on my LLC at 22 and 91.5.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 28N95W NEAR HOUSTON TEXAS TO A 1007 MB LOW CENTER
NEAR 23N93W TO 21N92W...AS OF 1500 UTC

My attention is turning to the W ATL.

You saw it getting better organized before anyone else.

W ATL? Big low pressure area?

[dabears]

I actually think when the next report comes out it will have skipped Depression and be classified as TS Bonnie. Just my opinion.

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html

I'm looking at the convective pattern and is that an upper LOW on the Lower/ middle TX coast now moving SW? If so, I know 96L can follow it but not plow into right? I would think this should slow 96L or moved the Low more northward. Help me understand.

[Air Force Met]

I actually think when the next report comes out it will have skipped Depression and be classified as TS Bonnie. Just my opinion.

Too bad recon was cancelled and it is sitting in the middle of the biggest data void in the Gulf.

[Comanche]

I actually think when the next report comes out it will have skipped Depression and be classified as TS Bonnie. Just my opinion.

If this becomes Bonnie, I'll eat a raw, west nile laden piece of crow.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html

I'm looking at the convective pattern and is that an upper LOW on the Lower/ middle TX coast now moving SW? If so, I know 96L can follow it but not plow into right? I would think this should slow 96L or moved the Low more northward. Help me understand.

im not seeing it

[funster]

Is is time for some recon?

[dabears]

Looking like it but no sign of them. Probably parked and eating a late lunch.

Is is time for some recon?

[KWT]

I actually think when the next report comes out it will have skipped Depression and be classified as TS Bonnie. Just my opinion.

Too bad recon was cancelled and it is sitting in the middle of the biggest data void in the Gulf.

Yeah I thought it was a bit of a silly move to cancel the 12z recon that was planned for today, but there ya go!

There does seem like there is a circulation at low level looking at the loops. Convection still isn't amazing but it may well be enough if the system keeps hold of the convection for an upgrade IMO...but we shall see.

[BigA]

As of 18z

Vorticity



definitely stronger than 15z, and appears to be on the right side of the convection. Would give it a bit more time over water if this is the case.

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html

I'm looking at the convective pattern and is that an upper LOW on the Lower/ middle TX coast now moving SW? If so, I know 96L can follow it but not plow into right? I would think this should slow 96L or moved the Low more northward. Help me understand.

im not seeing it

Well our local Mets said that there was an Upper Low over Houston this morning.

[lrak]

I actually think when the next report comes out it will have skipped Depression and be classified as TS Bonnie. Just my opinion.

If this becomes Bonnie, I'll eat a raw, west nile laden piece of crow.

Mmmm...Yummy, can't wait to watch that episode, will you put it on Youtube for us please oh please?

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Cyclone:

A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone (check)

originating over tropical or subtropical waters (check)

organized deep convection (more or less, check)

a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center (check)

[Nederlander]

maybe someone can help me understand why 96L is not following the low pressure to its north??

It is.. The ULL appears to be moving WNW now across S. TX.. 96L is also moving WNW..

[wx247]

Whether or not this becomes a named system or not... it is going to drag copious moisture north across Texas, Oklahoma,Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas, and Louisiana ahead of a cold front. Get ready for more flooding rains.