Non-tropical Low over W. Atlantic

[HURAKAN]

Very large system but appears to be producing convection near its center and appears to be moving south.

[Hurricanehink]

Is this the right time of year for such development? That reminds me more of a September setup.

[OuterBanker]

It's a retrograding ULL. No worry. Heading wsw. Outside possibility of pulling up th remants of that tropical wave though and sending it to the Canadian maritimes.

[Frank2]

Somewhat unusual looking system:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

for certain it's very large - the outer edge of it passed westward over South Florida early this morning...

P.S. That's why the long-long range hurricane season forecasts have to be taken with a grain of salt, because even if activity is high, this could be the year of the ULL (as it was in 2006 or 2007, and apparently not related to El Nino), and that alone can seriously disrupt any possible tropical cyclone development...

Frank

[Cyclone1]

Well, I can't say it doesn't look really cool.

[SFLcane]

The conditons currently across the atl are quite normal for early july if you ask me,though if that TUTT across the caribbean sea becomes a permanent feature those seasonal forecast could be in jeopardy.

[HURAKAN]

Loop

[Frank2]

The 1981 season was a good example - it would have been a disasterous season had it not been for very large Hurricane Emily, which sat in the western Atlantic for 2 weeks and left in it's wake a very large trough that lingered throughout the remainder of the season, causing several very potent CV hurricanes that formed after Emily to move northward...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:1981_ ... on_map.png

...and that's why the HRD/NHC folks of the early-mid 1980's were so against seasonal forecasts, since any number of factors could easily change the outcome - to say, "It's an El Nino year!", or "It's not an El Nino year!" just isn't good enough, since we all know about Hurricane Andrew - which formed during a strong El Nino event...

[HURAKAN]

Chances are increasing

[Comanche]

The conditons currently across the atl are quite normal for early july if you ask me,though if that TUTT across the caribbean sea becomes a permanent feature those seasonal forecast could be in jeopardy.

One can only hope for that TUTT to anchor itsefl and flex its muscle ALL season long.

[KWT]

P.S. That's why the long-long range hurricane season forecasts have to be taken with a grain of salt, because even if activity is high, this could be the year of the ULL (as it was in 2006 or 2007, and apparently not related to El Nino), and that alone can seriously disrupt any possible tropical cyclone development...

Frank

Whilst true, the 2007 year featured 2 category-5 hurricanes, it would have only taken the ridge to break down or not be as strong as it was in 2007 (where it was potent) and you have a Carla/Ivan/Allan, etc.

[hurricaneCW]

The conditons currently across the atl are quite normal for early july if you ask me,though if that TUTT across the caribbean sea becomes a permanent feature those seasonal forecast could be in jeopardy.

One can only hope for that TUTT to anchor itsefl and flex its muscle ALL season long.

With everything coming into place this season, the TUTT is unlikely to become a permanent feature. Tropical patterns usually go through massive changes from July to August. That's why there are so many more storms in August than July. Shear levels continue to drop off and the SAL layer weakens allowing more cape verde waves to spin up.

[AJC3]

The conditons currently across the atl are quite normal for early july if you ask me,though if that TUTT across the caribbean sea becomes a permanent feature those seasonal forecast could be in jeopardy.

The mid Atlantic TUTT is actually considered to be a semi-permanent feature. Some early papers by Sadler (1967, 1975, 1976) are considered to be seminal articles on how the TUTT can play a role in TC genesis (in his cases, he uses the Pacific).

I can't find the '67 and '75 papers online at the moment, but here is the '76 paper from MWR...

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10. ... 2.0.CO%3B2

[xironman]

Not tropical, but cool looking vertically stacked low. I wish it would pick up steam, we could use the rain.

[HURAKAN]

97L could be here soon

[tolakram]

Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

Looks like an LLC might, I say might, be forming.

[ronjon]

Yes, this has the look of a subtropical storm forming - probably needs to pull some more convection in around the west and south sides for NHC to upgrade. With more time over the gulf stream, that may just occur. Perhaps this will become subtropical storm Bonnie?

[KWT]

Could well become invest 97L in the near future, there certainly does seem like a low leve circulation there, though it'll have to sit in place for a while if its to gain subtropical features.

[poof121]

Shear is significantly decreasing, definitely a sign of a stacked system.



But a lot of convergence near 26N 66W (not 76), much more than over the apparent circulation...

[HURAKAN]

Floater over the system ... I expect this to be mentioned in the next TWO and 97L can't be far