ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - DISCUSSION

[Nederlander]

I think this picture says it all

[HouTXmetro]

It looks pretty pathetic to me. But the morning could bring a different story. Looks like Popcorn convection developing around the Low, finally...let's see if this is the start.

[funster]

I was expecting more convection than this but there is some convection start to pop around 96L.

[KWT]

Convection developing on the western side of the circulation but its still devoid of much deep convection over the system. It has got a chance but it does have to really develop its convecrion soon if it is to develop before its inland.

[cycloneye]

Time is running out for this to develop. If convection does not flare in the next 6 hours, I think recon will be canceled.

[Frank P]

Time is running out for this to develop. If convection does not flare in the next 6 hours, I think recon will be canceled.

Yep, it started falling apart early last night as far as convection... and has not recovered as of yet.. good bet recon will be cancelled unless something drastic happens.. we've gotten a ton of rain on the coast in MS the past three days... still don't think this thing will amount to anything but....

[N2FSU]

poof

[HouTXmetro]

ok, 96L must have heard the criticism. Finally starting to fire off convection after taking the night off .

[funster]

Yes, there is more convection than there was several hours ago. It has been building with each new frame.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 7 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA REMAIN DISORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND OVER MEXICO OR SOUTHERN TEXAS IN A DAY OR
SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[HurrMark]

Calling Bones...

[baitism]

Calling Bones...

Wouldn't write it off yet. New convection is firing near the center.

[Air Force Met]

Calling Bones...

I wouldn't call Bones just yet. There is a sfc low down there...albeit very broad. 42055 is reporting a NW wind around the circulation...and there are strong winds to the NE of the broad center...sustained at around 30...due to the pressure gradient.

With convection starting to fire now that its moving away from the Yucatan...I think it actually has a good chance of being upgraded before it moves inland south of Brownsville. Does it get a name?

That's more uncertain. Maybe as some sort of hybrid system where the strongest winds are 100-200 miles NE of the center. If the MLC hadn't collapsed last night...I think it would have certainly been named later today...but as it stands...it has to totally rebuild a core and it doesn't have time for that.

[srainhoutx]

[tolakram]

Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

Looks like the center of a broad ... turning ... is half way to Tex/Mex already.

[StormClouds63]

We'll have to wait a bit longer for Bonnie, because 96L looks even worse this morning than yesterday. A hybrid, semi-tropical system is an outside possibility, but it's running out of real estate, and there appears to be plenty of dry air ahead of its projected path.

Dr. McCoy may be needed ... later today or (more likely) tomorrow. I'm fairly certain 96L will not be a Bonnie-type storm from 1986.

[latitude_20]

Yep, looks like it may have already been interacting with that dry air already which probably explains the way it looks this morning.

[HURAKAN]

Looking for 97L ...

[HURAKAN]

Latest ... time is running out, fast

[dhweather]

I think the upper level low to its west/northwest is taking its toll on 96L.