ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - DISCUSSION

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siriusonellc.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - DISCUSSION

#541 Postby siriusonellc. » Tue Jul 06, 2010 10:29 pm

Either way after Ike and what I went through here in Texas (Brazoria County) I'm def not counting anything out. Esp with (from what I remember) The difficulty the models had with it.
But in the models defense Ike had a long trip to Texas.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - DISCUSSION

#542 Postby Annie Oakley » Tue Jul 06, 2010 10:35 pm

siriusonellc. wrote:Either way after Ike and what I went through here in Texas (Brazoria County) I'm def not counting anything out. Esp with (from what I remember) The difficulty the models had with it.

You go Texas! Especially the likes of Brazoria Co. On the number one Tier........
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#543 Postby siriusonellc. » Tue Jul 06, 2010 10:37 pm

wOOt! :ggreen:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - DISCUSSION

#544 Postby Sanibel » Tue Jul 06, 2010 10:38 pm

Boxed-in by cool water north of Yucatan, land interaction over Yucatan, and a ULL punching in from the west. Should rebound if it can get over water. (Maybe)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - DISCUSSION

#545 Postby StarmanHDB » Tue Jul 06, 2010 10:38 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rb-l.jpg

Looks all swirly, but where's the beef?
:lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - DISCUSSION

#546 Postby ozonepete » Tue Jul 06, 2010 10:40 pm

OK, I gotta go to bed too. I'm sorry I can't post the data, but this has quite positive SSTs, low shear and great mid-level moisture for the next day or two. There is no reason why it shouldn't be a TS by tomorrow night or Thursday morning. I still think it has the same problem that Alex did - it will be too much stretched out on a north south axis at first and that will hinder it from getting past TS status until it consolidates back to the south if it ever does. Just IMHO.
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#547 Postby siriusonellc. » Tue Jul 06, 2010 10:45 pm

Looks like it's trying to clean it's act up.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - DISCUSSION

#548 Postby latitude_20 » Tue Jul 06, 2010 10:46 pm

Even though convection looks to have taken a bit of a cliff-dive, looks to me as if the LLC and MLC have consolidated, and apparent circulation is still fairly significant. Thoughts?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - DISCUSSION

#549 Postby Nederlander » Tue Jul 06, 2010 10:47 pm

siriusonellc. wrote:Either way after Ike and what I went through here in Texas (Brazoria County) I'm def not counting anything out. Esp with (from what I remember) The difficulty the models had with it.

welcome aboard, I live in Brazoria County myself.. there are a few of us on here from southern Houston (and a couple from the north side of town).. But as far as counting anything out, I think it depends on whats happening.. Every situation is different. I have learned over the years on this forum to trust #1 the pro-mets and #2 the models/obs .. I trust the NHC with track, but as far development and intensity, its hard for me to put a lot of stock into them. I understand they are under a microscope, but IMO they are pressured by outlying factors (the media, etc.) instead of pure data or obs.. 95L is a perfect example.. But I dont want to get into that on here.. My point is, its good that you never count anything out, but a lot of times ive seen people just outright deny the obs or what the promets have to say just because their 'eyes' see something that really isnt there.. a system can look really nice on satellite, but when you take into account other factors other than appearance, it makes it a lot easier to at least have reasoning when it comes to chances of a storms development.. In 96L's case it seems like more of a timing issue to me than its environment.. it just isnt structurally sound..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - DISCUSSION

#550 Postby Nederlander » Tue Jul 06, 2010 10:48 pm

latitude_20 wrote:Even though convection looks to have taken a bit of a cliff-dive, looks to me as if the LLC and MLC have consolidated, and apparent circulation is still fairly significant. Thoughts?



I dont think theres been any surface obs to support an LLC.. unless i missed that somewhere (which is very possible)

Edit: I also dont see how its getting its act together? Everytime I look at IR imagery, there is less and less convection.. I know its been over land (the MLC).. but even after entering the GoM, its going to be in relatively cooler waters (I assume this is because of Alex)...
Last edited by Nederlander on Tue Jul 06, 2010 10:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - DISCUSSION

#551 Postby ozonepete » Tue Jul 06, 2010 10:49 pm

Nederlander wrote:
siriusonellc. wrote:Either way after Ike and what I went through here in Texas (Brazoria County) I'm def not counting anything out. Esp with (from what I remember) The difficulty the models had with it.

welcome aboard, I live in Brazoria County myself.. there are a few of us on here from southern Houston (and a couple from the north side of town).. But as far as counting anything out, I think it depends on whats happening.. Every situation is different. I have learned over the years on this forum to trust #1 the pro-mets and #2 the models/obs .. I trust the NHC with track, but as far development and intensity, its hard for me to put a lot of stock into them. I understand they are under a microscope, but IMO they are pressured by outlying factors (the media, etc.) instead of pure data or obs.. 95L is a perfect example.. But I dont want to get into that on here.. My point is, its good that you never count anything out, but a lot of times ive seen people just outright deny the obs or what the promets have to say just because their 'eyes' see something that really isnt there.. a system can look really nice on satellite, but when you take into account other factors other than appearance, it makes it a lot easier to at least have reasoning when it comes to chances of a storms development.. In 96L's case it seems like more of a timing issue to me than its environment.. it just isnt structurally sound..


Well said. Good night.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - DISCUSSION

#552 Postby Duddy » Tue Jul 06, 2010 10:59 pm

Anyone from Matagorda? You know, that one county just the SW of Brazoria.

I know, it's the couty that know one cares about. In fact, whenever I see that a storm is tracking towards our county, the weather guy says it going towards Matagorda Bay. Like we are just all about a bay.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - DISCUSSION

#553 Postby ROCK » Tue Jul 06, 2010 11:01 pm

really dont understand the cool water theory...this map shows potential for a cat 3 right off the coast. All things equal of course.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL


convection is waning tonight which I had thought it would be building. Proves I know nothing about TS genesis..... :D still has the look of a vigorious MLC but if it cannot tap into the surface its all for not....reminds me of Humberto....just a MLC working its way up the coast until the final moments it found its LLC during D-max...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - DISCUSSION

#554 Postby siriusonellc. » Tue Jul 06, 2010 11:01 pm

Nederlander wrote:
siriusonellc. wrote:Either way after Ike and what I went through here in Texas (Brazoria County) I'm def not counting anything out. Esp with (from what I remember) The difficulty the models had with it.

welcome aboard, I live in Brazoria County myself.. there are a few of us on here from southern Houston (and a couple from the north side of town).. But as far as counting anything out, I think it depends on whats happening.. Every situation is different. I have learned over the years on this forum to trust #1 the pro-mets and #2 the models/obs .. I trust the NHC with track, but as far development and intensity, its hard for me to put a lot of stock into them. I understand they are under a microscope, but IMO they are pressured by outlying factors (the media, etc.) instead of pure data or obs.. 95L is a perfect example.. But I dont want to get into that on here.. My point is, its good that you never count anything out, but a lot of times ive seen people just outright deny the obs or what the promets have to say just because their 'eyes' see something that really isnt there.. a system can look really nice on satellite, but when you take into account other factors other than appearance, it makes it a lot easier to at least have reasoning when it comes to chances of a storms development.. In 96L's case it seems like more of a timing issue to me than its environment.. it just isnt structurally sound..


I agree. It looks like poo.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - DISCUSSION

#555 Postby ROCK » Tue Jul 06, 2010 11:03 pm

Duddy wrote:Anyone from Matagorda? You know, that one county just the SW of Brazoria.

I know, it's the couty that know one cares about. In fact, whenever I see that a storm is tracking towards our county, the weather guy says it going towards Matagorda Bay. Like we are just all about a bay.


Nederland and AFM are from Pearland... about as close as you can get I guess....still want to visit the Indianola marker one day...thats around your area....


sorry OT....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - DISCUSSION

#556 Postby siriusonellc. » Tue Jul 06, 2010 11:04 pm

Pearland? Me too!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - DISCUSSION

#557 Postby Houstonia » Tue Jul 06, 2010 11:05 pm

Nederlander wrote:
siriusonellc. wrote:Either way after Ike and what I went through here in Texas (Brazoria County) I'm def not counting anything out. Esp with (from what I remember) The difficulty the models had with it.

welcome aboard, I live in Brazoria County myself.. there are a few of us on here from southern Houston (and a couple from the north side of town)

Southwest Houston (Sharpstown) chiming in!! We may have tons of low-rent apartments here, but we LOVE our tree-lined neighborhoods. :lol:

(house - post Ike)
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - DISCUSSION

#558 Postby siriusonellc. » Tue Jul 06, 2010 11:07 pm

I remember scenes like that all too well.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - DISCUSSION

#559 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Jul 06, 2010 11:09 pm

Just a friendly reminder to keep the topic to 96L
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - DISCUSSION

#560 Postby siriusonellc. » Tue Jul 06, 2010 11:16 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-avn.html

Last few frames it's really coming unsprung.
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