ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - DISCUSSION

[Ikester]

Didnt Alex go through RI immediately before landfall?

RI is classified as a pressure drop of at least 42 mbs in a 24 hr. period..

To my recollection I dont think Alex came close to that..

I thought it was 36 mb in 24 hours. I may very well be wrong about that though and your right, RI DID NOT happen with Alex.

[Ikester]

What data did the planes find that justify a more pro-development analysis? Did the planes sample the disturbance, or did they look at the environmental conditions around the disturbance and conclude that there is not too much wind shear, dry air, et cetera?

I have a feeling that 1001mb reading waved a red flag

Exactly which is why i am surprised they didn't opt for the 50%. That percentage is for the next 2 days. Certainly its higher than 40% I would think.

[HURAKAN]

[TwisterFanatic]

Checking in.. How is 96 looking? I am getting a nice rain band from 95 here in Oklahoma.

[Nederlander]

Exactly which is why i am surprised they didn't opt for the 50%. That percentage is for the next 2 days. Certainly its higher than 40% I would think.

But 96L hasnt showed much consistency other than blobs of convection (and the MLC).. I think a 10% increase is pretty accurate.. no doubt, if 96L continues to improve and finally consolidates, then yea the percentage will go up.. It just doesnt have a whole lot of time to get its act together..

[alan1961]

Yes IMO i think this will be a TD in the next 24 hours, take a
look at the 1klm visible (ghcc) before it dissappears and you can jus
make out a LL circulation under the denser convection, i think this one is on its way

[KWT]

I think its not only the 1001mbs but the wind veering that occured to the west of the Yucatan, we had a WNW wind at one point and thats quite suggestive...plus the fact we had an upper high now developing is something that probably is also ringing alarm bells.

[Ikester]

But outflow is becoming established in the NW quad, there's clearly some kind of LLC either forming or has formed, pressures are VERY low and it is clearly holding its own. The 50% is strictly my opinion.

[Ikester]

My co-workers are surprised this isn't higher as well. My friend at the NWS just texted me with the same sort of dismay...

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 96, 2010070700, , BEST, 0, 210N, 899W, 25, 1008, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[Hurricane Andrew]

My co-workers are surprised this isn't higher as well. My friend at the NWS just texted me with the same sort of dismay...

I don't know. I think the NHC is doing it slowly so they don't cause Mass Hysteria.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think this storm will continue to organize, and maybe develop tommorow. It should target C or E texas.

[HURAKAN]

Pressures measured by RECON can't be trusted, just measured 987 mb! lol

[Ikester]

Pressures measured by RECON can't be trusted, just measured 987 mb! lol

HAHAHAHAHA...yeah, that's definitely suspect at this point.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Pressures measured by RECON can't be trusted, just measured 987 mb! lol

Wow. cat 1 pressure. What went wrong with thier system? Unless they are in a supercell or something...

[HURAKAN]

00z Best Track

AL, 96, 2010070700, , BEST, 0, 210N, 899W, 25, 1008, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

AL, 96, 2010070700, , BEST, 0, 210N, 899W, 25, 1007, DB

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 96, 2010070700, , BEST, 0, 210N, 899W, 25, 1008, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

AL, 96, 2010070700, , BEST, 0, 210N, 899W, 25, 1007, DB

In a few minutes they updated hat.

[Hurricane Andrew]

00z Best Track

AL, 96, 2010070700, , BEST, 0, 210N, 899W, 25, 1008, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

AL, 96, 2010070700, , BEST, 0, 210N, 899W, 25, 1007, DB

In a few minutes they updated hat.

hat? LOL. my keyboard is annoying too.

The NHC must have been trying to avredge out all those dropsonde pressures.

[HURAKAN]

~ 14 miles from the coast

[jaxfladude]

Will there be an "Equipment failure" message soon or not?
That 987 reading is wacky
Alex had lower than usual pressure readings for a TD/TS/'Cane of his category also.

[Evil Jeremy]

Didnt Alex go through RI immediately before landfall?

RI is classified as a pressure drop of at least 42 mbs in a 24 hr. period..

To my recollection I dont think Alex came close to that..

I thought it was 36 mb in 24 hours. I may very well be wrong about that though and your right, RI DID NOT happen with Alex.

However, it is possible that Alex was entering a period of IR in it's last few hours before landfall. According to the NHC, dropped 12 mbs in the five hour period leading up to landfall, during which a pinhole eye (commonly associated with RI) became visible.