ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - DISCUSSION

[tolakram]

MIMIC-TPW: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

Really looks like the spin has long since left the area.

[Ikester]

If the pressure is coming in at 1001 mb, it is meteorologically impossible not to have a circulation of some kind.

[tolakram]

If the pressure is coming in at 1001 mb, it is meteorologically impossible not to have a circulation of some kind.

I believe it all depends on the background pressures, which are unusually low down there. I'm not sure why you would make a statement like that.

[Sanibel]

One thing 96L has an advantage over Alex with is getting back over water quicker.

[KWT]

Yeah Big A there is a small upper high developing there, it really is a small system though with a tight gradient between the higher shear and the low shear aloft. At least the MLC is in roughly the right area for development shear wise.

[Ikester]

If the pressure is coming in at 1001 mb, it is meteorologically impossible not to have a circulation of some kind.

I believe it all depends on the background pressures, which are unusually low down there. I'm not sure why you would make a statement like that.

Experience. That is a low pressure regardless. Be careful who you criticize.

[HouTXmetro]

where are we getting a 1001 pressure report from?

[KWT]

I believe it all depends on the background pressures, which are unusually low down there. I'm not sure why you would make a statement like that.

Experience. That is a low pressure regardless. Be careful who you criticize.

You'd be surprised how low you can go down to without a closed low if background pressures are deep enough. I grant you that is real low for the Atlantic and probably even a little low for the WPAC but a medium sized system that just can't quite close its circulation off and low background pressures could produce something close to that figure I'd have thought.

Mind you I swear someone said you can't use extrap for a reliable pressure gauge at the level they are flying at?

[Ikester]

where are we getting a 1001 pressure report from?

It came from the recon that is currently investigating the system.

[Ivanhater]

I think we have a couple areas of low pressure. Certainly a lot of energy to go around, just needs to consolidate

[Ikester]

Appears outflow is trying to become established on the left side of the apparent MLC near the NW Yucatan.

[HouTXmetro]

Thanks Ivan, MLC emerging off the NW Yucatan as we speak...hints on new convection developing near it.

[KWT]

Yeah its a really stretched out system thats for sure with lots of moisture working its way up from the Yucatan up towards LA.

Also Ivanhater you can see the mid level turning with the weak clouds rotating around in the NW Yucatan.

[Ikester]

Keep in mind that Hurricane Alicia went from a disturbance to a Cat. 3 in about 36 hours. If this system can organize, it will have an opportunity to deepen...

[KWT]

The area of condusive conditions is rather small but right now the MLC is pretty close to that region, so actually things aren't too bad aloft really right now if it can sort itself out structually.

[latitude_20]

Reviewing the loops and I'm definitely seeing what vbhoutex and KWT are referring to - that low-level circulation north of the MLC really jumps out on the visible.

Will be interesting to see if it stacks up.

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Man, if I didn't know any better and saw this visible I'd be crapping in my pant's right now if this was headed my way. It looks GREAT on vis. but thanks to you guys experience I know it isn't much right now and has a way to go.

[Ikester]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Man, if I didn't know any better and saw this visible I'd be crapping in my pant's right now if this was headed my way. It looks GREAT on vis. but thanks to you guys experience I know it isn't much right now and has a way to go.

Thanks for the visual.

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Man, if I didn't know any better and saw this visible I'd be crapping in my pant's right now if this was headed my way. It looks GREAT on vis. but thanks to you guys experience I know it isn't much right now and has a way to go.

Thanks for the visual.

LOL, sorry....guess I got a lil out of hand.....but you get the point.

[ROCK]

Like I said earlier I think today looked better than yesterday since I can see that it does indeed have structure to it. Last night it was just a blob inland...

Alicia was moving dreadfully slow but yes she went to a 3 in a hurry...We have seen it happen with Humberto as a recent example...