Possible formation further North.

[ameriwx2003]

Ok everyone, after looking at Satellite loops etc. It appears that a possible new center may be trying to form North of the original 23n center, is this mid-level or a possible LLC???. Would like some other peoples observations please:):)

[Steve H.]

No you're right Amer. Just posted the same thing. the LLCC at 23 north is all but gone. watch out if this thing cranks up!! Cheers!!

[Stormsfury]

Ok everyone, after looking at Satellite loops etc. It appears that a possible new center may be trying to form North of the original 23n center, is this mid-level or a possible LLC???. Would like some other peoples observations please:):)

I'm having a debate (unfortunately on another board) regarding just that. It is MLC, and will likely weaken ... about 1½ hours ago, there was a HUGE outflow boundary that busted out northwestward in that region ... notice the LL synoptic flow ... SE on the south and east side of the convection, and easterly flow on the west side of that convection. It's a surface trough ...

This visible satellite loop is overlayed with surface winds ... southerly winds in that deep convection, easterly on the western side of it ... note, SSW winds to the SE side of the actual LLC ...

http://orbit-net.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/a ... loope.html

[ColdFront77]

The actual final low pressure with a system that isn't a tropical depression seems to be a common occurrence. If indeed the LLC has gone away there will have to be another low pressure developing near or even under the area with the most convection.

[Steve]

I agree with Stormsfury. Those MLC's throw the proverbial sucker-punches. It's not impossible that something could form there (and never is), but it's much less likely to do so.

Steve

[cycloneye]

Well Stormsfury there is a debate with good opinions in that other board and here in storm2k too because I am seeing the NE area taking over with that circulation MID?SURFACE one ataround 25-26n as it is having the classic look up there than down at 23n. But time will tell.

[ColdFront77]

If a new center is going to form further north, say north of about 26ºN... it appears that a more WNW if not NW movement is taking place with that portion of the convection.

[ameriwx2003]

Thanks for the input gang. Yes, right now to me at least, it does appear that the 25 to 26 N area is the one to watch.Of course thats just my opinion You make some good points though SF . It will be interesting to watch as systems in the fomative stage can be fickle:):) Also, The good thing here is one can give an opinion and not have to fend off the wolves if they are wrong lol. Case in point over on another board ,DT/wxrisk has asked rainstorm if she is mentally retarded. Oh boy... lol.

[wxman57]

I just issued an update and discussed that development centered near 26.3N/69.3W. It is certainly not an LLC, but a MLC as was already mentioned. But looking above that, there's a beautiful upper-level high overhead. Thunderstorms are definitely clustering around that point and the eddy down south near 23N/72.6W appears to be weakening.

There may be a good chance that an LLC will reform beneath the convection in the next 24 hours or so. In any case, this is the area to watch for effects across Florida, not that eddy. Also note the trajectory of the thunderstorm complex up north - it's moving WNW-NW and not to the west. One question might be whether this northern thunderstorm complex may be drawn northward up the east coast and the weak LLC track west into the Gulf.

Yep, there's lots of uncertainty out there today! No official word from the NHC yet, but from what I've seen of the recon reports we don't have a TD today. Will be an interesting system to follow.

[Stormsfury]

I just issued an update and discussed that development centered near 26.3N/69.3W. It is certainly not an LLC, but a MLC as was already mentioned. But looking above that, there's a beautiful upper-level high overhead. Thunderstorms are definitely clustering around that point and the eddy down south near 23N/72.6W appears to be weakening.

There may be a good chance that an LLC will reform beneath the convection in the next 24 hours or so. In any case, this is the area to watch for effects across Florida, not that eddy. Also note the trajectory of the thunderstorm complex up north - it's moving WNW-NW and not to the west. One question might be whether this northern thunderstorm complex may be drawn northward up the east coast and the weak LLC track west into the Gulf.

Yep, there's lots of uncertainty out there today! No official word from the NHC yet, but from what I've seen of the recon reports we don't have a TD today. Will be an interesting system to follow.

Thank you, wxman57 on your input. I'm not totally ruling out a formation of a new center, which would be a totally different animal along the same surface trough ... and yes, I noticed that upper high building over ... in the last 24 hours, the ULH has been moving west.

SF

[ameriwx2003]

Nice input wxman57 and SF, Yes it will be interesting to see how this all pans out:):)

[cycloneye]

ameriwx2003 that kind of personnal attacks like those at that board you mentioned are not allowed in storm2k.

Guys great debate going on here and this is the way we want to discuss the tropics with ideas and fundamentals not with attacks on a personnal manner or namecalling.

[Rainband]

Amen LUIS!!!

[Stormsfury]

ameriwx2003 that kind of personnal attacks like those at that board you mentioned are not allowed in storm2k.

Guys great debate going on here and this is the way we want to discuss the tropics with ideas and fundamentals not with attacks on a personnal manner or namecalling.

Definitely agree, cycloneye ... We all are learning from this intriguing system ...

SF

[ameriwx2003]

I really think in time the North or where the MLC is now will end up becoming the primary LLC but thats just my opinion .Whatever happens its great to hear other peoples thoughts and discussions. I always seem to pick up a tidbit or 2 by asking a question and reading the resulting discussions. Luis, agreed. This is the way to discuss things without aLL the personal attacks.:)

[ColdFront77]

Exactly right. We won't be able to discuss what we are seeing with our opinions with this and other systems if we don't discuss things in a civil manner.

What may even happen discussions with fellow members in the Storm2K chatroom and even one on one interactions on instant messagers such as AIM, YIM, MSN and e-mail.

[vbhoutex]

Here are some comments from a Met friend of mine whom I email regularly about tropical systems. Honestly I had not noticed the MLC forming NE of the former LLCC. These have been edited, but not changed.


In fact, I'm not too pleased to see what's going on right now
to the northeast of it. If something were to form beneath what
looks like a mid-level vortex up near 26-27N and 70W, then
it would probably pass right over our forecast area.

If you'd have asked me last night, I'd have said without
blinking that the system would pass through the Florida
Keys/Straits and head due west toward the western GOMEX.
Now I'm not so sure - it all depends on whether or not the
southern vortex acquires convection, or the northeast MLC
works down to the surface instead

Too early to get specific, but given the strength of the deep
layer ridge that will retrograde into the eastern U.S. from
the Atlantic, the system should keep moving generally on
a due west track and the GOMEX will eventually have
to deal with it. Too much depends upon where the
dominant low winds up forming to speculate any further
on which part of the GOMEX would be most at risk.

Just keep watching it.

More food for thought, but in general agreement with what has been discussed so far. I personally was surprised that recon flew today. I did not see enough of a well defined LLCC to warrant it IMHO. I understand why it was flown, but with the ULL to its' SW shearing it from the E on its' S side there was no way it was going to develop today. It did give it a good try for sure. No we do what we always do with the tropics-WAIT AND WATCH!

[Steve H.]

David, where about does this person live?? Somewhere in FL??