ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - DISCUSSION

[antonlsu]

That makes perfect sense of why the mlc is north and the convection is well south. But the convection keeps firing, could get interesting later.

[HouTXmetro]

yep, too linear..FAIL

thankfully all it's going to do is ruin people's weekend.

[Ivanhater]

I am not expecting much now that the models have dropped development..worth keeping an eye on though

[antonlsu]

yep, too linear..FAIL

thankfully all it's going to do is ruin people's weekend.

I wouldnt say fail, its the gulf of mexico man, anything can happen.

[Macrocane]

Hey Ivan your name's color changed again

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The mid level circulation has become more notable in the past few hours and the convection has persisted, I still think we could see a TD or weak TS from this system, if 95L could organize in a rather hostile environment I don't see why 96L won't.

[KWT]

I am not expecting much now that the models have dropped development..worth keeping an eye on though

I can still see a depression from this, it really doesn't take long for them to get going if conditions did improve, but the MLC is the only place that really has much of a chance of seeing development, despite the greater Vorticity elsewhere. Heading inland for a little while now.

[cycloneye]

Let's wait and see what the NOAA P-3 plane finds this afternoon-evening.

[StormClouds63]

I think 96L's future is very doubtful. Too much time over land plus less than ideal upper air environment probably spell the end for this system as a potential tropical entity. 96L could still be a big-time rain event for someone on the west-central Gulf Coast.

Next contestant, please. Future "Bonnie" lies over the ocean ... somewhere.

[Florida1118]

I think 96L's future is very doubtful. Too much time over land plus less than ideal upper air environment probably spell the end for this system as a potential tropical entity. 96L could still be a big-time rain event for someone on the west-central Gulf Coast.

Next contestant, please. Future "Bonnie" lies over the ocean ... somewhere.

Thats what some people said about Cat. 2 Alex, and look what came out. A cat.2 storm that hadn't accord for over 50 years.

[Nederlander]

Let's wait and see what the NOAA P-3 plane finds this afternoon-evening.

Not sure what data they are actually going to be looking for, but whatever it is, I would bet they are going to find a mess of a system.. I mean yea, the convection is decent, but youve got not real center of circulation.. in fact, it looks to me like the most vorticity is already in the central gulf with no convection around it.. I think the models are way off on this.. in order for anything to form, that convective burst is going to have to get over open water and develop an llc.. I think shear is a bigger problem than many may realize at the moment.. it looks to be in about 20-25 kts of shear, unless im missing something.. at any rate, regardless of organization, its going to be a rainy mess for texas toward the end of the week..

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[KWT]

I think 96L's future is very doubtful. Too much time over land plus less than ideal upper air environment probably spell the end for this system as a potential tropical entity. 96L could still be a big-time rain event for someone on the west-central Gulf Coast.

Next contestant, please. Future "Bonnie" lies over the ocean ... somewhere.

Way too early to rule this one out, its got a really good MLC and whilst I do agree upper conditions aren't great, it wouldn't take much for the shear to ease and suddenly you could have a brief system before it reaches Texas and gives them a rainy day.

We shall have to wait and see on that front however it seems...

[poof121]

I think 96L's future is very doubtful. Too much time over land plus less than ideal upper air environment probably spell the end for this system as a potential tropical entity. 96L could still be a big-time rain event for someone on the west-central Gulf Coast.

Next contestant, please. Future "Bonnie" lies over the ocean ... somewhere.

Careful... As Jim Cantore said yesterday, can't take your eye off of a low in the Gulf.

[lrak]

It looks as if a LLC is trying to form near the NW tip of the Yucatan.

[lostsole]

Is "vorticity" going to be the new buzz word for this season or something, seems everyone is pinning hopes on it determining a storm forming although I have yet to see a correlation this season, and I almost never heard the word mentioned in year's past. Shear is the major player/factor in development more than anything else IMO. Which leads me to believe 96L will not be a TC anytime soon.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
THROUGH TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[ROCK]

Mid-level turning right over Yucatan...you can see the lower clouds turning under the high clouds..Also you can see where the lower level vorticty to located out in front. IMO, this is going to pop once that MLC gets back over the water then again model support is gone...

[tolakram]

Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

In my opinion you can see the clouds off the tip of the Yucatan beginning to move south and east, which hints at a LLC forming ... perhaps just NE of the tip.

[Nederlander]

Is "vorticity" going to be the new buzz word for this season or something, seems everyone is pinning hopes on it determining a storm forming although I have yet to see a correlation this season, and I almost never heard the word mentioned in year's past. Shear is the major player/factor in development more than anything else IMO. Which leads me to believe 96L will not be a TC anytime soon.

vorticity is just another one of the many ingredients you need for a TC to form.. you have upper, mid, and lower level vorticity.. while shear is a major factor in limiting a storms formation potential, there are many things that have to go right for a system to form.. you can have all the convection in the world, 0 shear, but if you have no vorticity, then its just an open wave.. the higher vorticity a system has, the more potential it has to ramp up and wrap its convection around a center..

[Stormcenter]

IMO I would not write off 96L at all
this early in the game.
It still has a lot of water to travel
and even if conditions may not be ideal
in GOM we still may see some development.

[RachelAnna]

Since models are not really supporting development any longer, and assuming that there is no development, where do you think we'll see the rain hit? Still thinking the central Texas to TX/LA border? Or, since some models moved it south are we thinking about a Central TX/Mexico area?