ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - DISCUSSION

[latitude_20]

So is it safe to say that the eddy of dry air in the NW gulf will persist? If so, I'm guessing it will kill off any system that moves into it?

[Sanibel]

So is it safe to say that the eddy of dry air in the NW gulf will persist? If so, I'm guessing it will kill off any system that moves into it?

Hard to say. Alex didn't have a ULL in front of it.


I would say the ULL shear would be more of an impediment than the dry air within it.


I only said hurricane because I think people are missing the potential if 96L overcomes that synoptic.



.

[Cryomaniac]

The following is the opinion of Cryomaniac, and is not based on any evidence, meteorological or otherwise. As such it should not be used for any purpose.

This looks pretty good today, and I think that when the centre gets into the GOM proper it may well develop.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[TYNI]

So is it safe to say that the eddy of dry air in the NW gulf will persist? If so, I'm guessing it will kill off any system that moves into it?

Hard to say. Alex didn't have a ULL in front of it.


I would say the ULL shear would be more of an impediment than the dry air within it.


I only said hurricane because I think people are missing the potential if 96L overcomes that synoptic.



.

Water Vapour is being drawn into the Gulf, so not sure dry air will be factor in a day or two.

[HURAKAN]

928
NOUS42 KNHC 061530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT TUE 06 JULY 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z JULY 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-036

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 07/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 07/1600Z
D. 23.0N 91.0W
E. 07/1715Z TO 07/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 08/0600, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 08/0330Z
D. 25.0N 93.5W
E. 08/0445Z TO 08/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE 3-HRLY FIXES
BEGINNING AT 08/1500Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS:
A. TASKING FOR 06/1800Z, 07/0600Z AND 07/1200Z
CANCELED BY NHC AT 06/1210Z.
B. NOAA'S P-3 WILL BEGIN A SERIES OF FOUR RESEARCH
MISSIONS INTO THIS AREA AT 06/2000Z TODAY AND
THEN DEPARTING EVERY 12 HRS. OPERATING ALTITUDE
12,000 FT.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

[KWT]

Looks like they expect it to be overland for a while in that case Hurakan, but then again I think as others have said the actual lowest region of pressure is probably now in S.Central Gulf of Mexico.

Still looks sheared to me to be honest.

[HURAKAN]

Vorticity in the GOM

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Mazatlán, MX, reporting weak west winds.

11 AM (15) Jul 06 80 (27) 71 (22) 29.82 (1009) W 7

Link - http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMMZ.html

[poof121]

Ship report about 180 due south of Grand Isle, LA:

SHIP
Location: 26.3N 89.8W
07/06/2010 1500 UTC
Winds: ESE (110°) at 25.1 kts
Significant Wave Height: 4.9 ft
Dominant Wave period: 2 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.77 in and steady (1008 mb)
Air Temperature: 80.6 °F
Water Temperature: 84.2 °F
Visibility: 5 nmi

[HouTXmetro]

Mazatlán, MX, reporting weak west winds.

11 AM (15) Jul 06 80 (27) 71 (22) 29.82 (1009) W 7

Link - http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMMZ.html

Ummm....you realize this station is on the Mexican Pacific coast?

[thetruesms]

Well, the convection certainly looks much more impressive than the last time I looked at it, but surface obs don't give any indication that anything's happening down at the surface yet

[KWT]

Yep Hurakan you can see where the Vorticity and its quite displaced away from the convection, which to be fair is quite potent right now.

Looks like odds of about 30% development full stop is about right for now...

[poof121]

Looks to be an MLC just onshore on the northern coast of the Yucatan:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[HurrMark]

Looks to be an MLC just onshore on the northern coast of the Yucatan:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

I see that too, but I don't see signs of a surface reflection. As wxman57 notes, this is a progressive system, and it probably will not have time to develop significantly before it moves inland. Perhaps it could become a TD or minimal TS, but even that is probably not too likely.

[KWT]

Yeah you can see the mid level turning but the Vorticity is way displaced from the convective mass, it just seems to be a strong convective blob right now IMO. It does have time to develop but when they have these presentations despite the good look they tend to take a while to get going, so may take another 24-36hrs once its back over water, which will take it very close to the coast...

Models shifting back towards a N.Mexico solution...I think there is an obvious trend already this year with most models too far east bar the ECM at the start.

[HouTXmetro]

well if anything were to develop wouldnt it be where the vorticity is in Gulf and not vigorous MLC?

[KWT]

Convection developing where the greatest Vorticity is at the moment, maybe an area to watch, though it really doesn't look too good, way to linear at the moment, you can actually see the convection developing along a line down the Gulf.

MLC is obvious at the moment...also if you look to the NW of the Yucatan there does appear to be some low level turning out there as well...which maybe something to watch further, maybe a low level circulation of some sort that has raced ahead of the MLC and weakening?

[poof121]

I'll bet all this mid-level shear is causing problems: