An interesting statistic about landfalling major hurricanes

[HurrMark]

As many of you know, the last major hurricane to strike the US was Hurricane Wilma in 2005. We had a couple of storms (Gustav and Ike) in 2008 that came close, but were slightly below the threshold. I went to the AOML website -- http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/ushurrlist.htm and did a quick analysis on all landfalling cat 3's or higher. It turns out that if we are able to get through 2010 without a major landfall in the US, we will have the longest span without a major landfall since 1909-1915.

Another interesting finding...if we neglect the two anomalous years of 2004 and 2005, we only had one major landfall in the US after 1996...and that was Bret in 1999. Also, we had almost as many major landfalls in the 15-year period between 1979 and 1993 (9) in the heart of the historically inactive period as we did in the 15 year period from 1995 to 2009 (10). Finally, currently, we are in 7th place since 1851 for the longest span without a major hurricane.

I hope I did not jinx things, but all things considered, despite being in a historically "hyperactive" period, we have been very lucky the last 15 years (2004-05 notwithstanding). Granted, as we saw with Ike and Gustav, a storm ranking as "only" a category two could be just as devastating as a major hurricane. And it may sound cliche, but it only takes one big storm to cause massive destruction.

Year Month Category Name Time since last major
2005 Oct 3 Wilma 0 yr 1 mo
2005 Sep 3 Rita 0 yr 1 mo
2005 Aug 3 Katrina 0 yr 1 mo
2005 Jul 3 Dennis 0 yr 10 mo
2004 Sep 3 Jeanne 0 yr 1 mo
2004 Sep 3 Ivan 0 yr 0 mo
2004 Aug 4 Charley 5 yr 0 mo
1999 Aug 3 Bret 2 yr 11 mo
1996 Sep 3 Fran 0 yr 11 mo
1995 Oct 3 Opal 2 yr 2 mo
1993 Aug 3 Emily 1 yr 0 mo
1992 Aug 5 Andrew 2 yr 11 mo
1989 Sep 4 Hugo 4 yr 0 mo
1985 Sep 3 Gloria 1 yr 0 mo
1985 Sep 3 Elena 0 yr 0 mo
1984 Sep 3 Diana 1 yr 1 mo
1983 Aug 3 Alicia 3 yr 0 mo
1980 Aug 3 Allen 0 yr 11 mo
1979 Sep 3 Frederic 4 yr 0 mo
1975 Sep 3 Eloise 1 yr 0 mo
1974 Sep 3 Carmen 4 yr 1 mo
1970 Aug 3 Celia 1 yr 0 mo
1969 Aug 5 Camille 1 yr 11 mo
1967 Sep 3 Beulah 2 yr 0 mo
1965 Sep 3 Betsy 0 yr 11 mo
1964 Oct 3 Hilda 3 yr 1 mo
1961 Sep 4 Carla 1 yr 0 mo
1960 Sep 4 Donna 1 yr 0 mo
1959 Sep 3 Gracie 2 yr 3 mo
1957 Jun 4 Audrey 1 yr 9 mo
1955 Sep 3 Ione 0 yr 1 mo
1955 Aug 3 Connie 0 yr 10 mo
1954 Oct 4 Hazel 0 yr 1 mo
1954 Sep 3 Edna 0 yr 1 mo
1954 Aug 3 Carol 3 yr 10 mo
1950 Oct 3 King 0 yr 1 mo
1950 Sep 3 Easy 1 yr 1 mo
1949 Aug 3 ----- 0 yr 11 mo
1948 Sep 3 ----- 1 yr 0 mo
1947 Sep 4 ----- 2 yr 0 mo
1945 Sep 3 ----- 0 yr 11 mo
1944 Oct 3 ----- 0 yr 1 mo
1944 Sep 3 ----- 2 yr 1 mo
1942 Aug 3 ----- 0 yr 11 mo
1941 Sep 3 ----- 3 yr 0 mo
1938 Sep 3 “New England” 2 yr 2 mo
1936 Jul 3 ----- 0 yr 10 mo
1935 Sep 5 “Labor Day” 1 yr 3 mo
1934 Jun 3 ----- 0 yr 9 mo
1933 Sep 3 ----- 1 yr 1 mo
1933 Sep 3 ----- 0 yr 0 mo
1933 Sep 3 ----- 0 yr 0 mo
1932 Aug 4 “Freeport” 2 yr 11 mo
1929 Sep 3 ----- 1 yr 0 mo
1928 Sep 4 “Lake Okeechobee” 2 yr 0 mo
1926 Sep 4 “Great Miami” 0 yr 1 mo
1926 Aug 3 ----- 4 yr 10 mo
1921 Oct 3 “Tampa Bay” 2 yr 1 mo
1919 Sep 4 ----- 1 yr 1 mo
1918 Aug 3 ----- 0 yr 11 mo
1917 Sep 3 ----- 1 yr 1 mo
1916 Aug 3 ----- 0 yr 1 mo
1916 Jul 3 ----- 0 yr 10 mo
1915 Sep 4 “New Orleans” 0 yr 1 mo
1915 Aug 4 “Galveston” 5 yr 10 mo
1909 Oct 3 ----- 0 yr 1 mo
1909 Sep 3 “Grand Isle” 0 yr 2 mo
1909 Jul 3 “Velasco” 2 yr 9 mo
1906 Oct 3 ----- 6 yr 1 mo
1900 Sep 4 “Galveston” 1 yr 1 mo
1899 Aug 3 ----- 0 yr 10 mo
1898 Oct 4 ----- 2 yr 1 mo
1896 Sep 3 ----- 1 yr 11 mo
1894 Oct 3 ----- 1 yr 0 mo
1893 Oct 3 ----- 0 yr 2 mo
1893 Oct 4 “Chenier Caminanda” 0 yr 0 mo
1893 Aug 3 “Sea Islands” 5 yr 0 mo
1888 Aug 3 ----- 1 yr 10 mo
1886 Oct 3 ----- 0 yr 2 mo
1886 Aug 4 “Indianola” 1 yr 0 mo
1885 Aug 3 ----- 2 yr 11 mo
1882 Sep 3 ----- 2 yr 1 mo
1880 Aug 3 ----- 0 yr 11 mo
1879 Sep 3 ----- 0 yr 1 mo
1879 Aug 3 ----- 1 yr 10 mo
1877 Oct 3 ----- 2 yr 1 mo
1875 Sep 3 ----- 1 yr 11 mo
1873 Oct 3 ----- 2 yr 2 mo
1871 Aug 3 ----- 1 yr 11 mo
1869 Sep 3 “Eastern New England” 9 yr 1 mo
1860 Aug 3 ----- 4 yr 0 mo
1856 Aug 4 “Last Island” 0 yr 11 mo
1855 Sep 3 “Middle Gulf Shore” 1 yr 0 mo
1854 Sep 3 “Great Carolina” 2 yr 1 mo
1852 Aug 3 “Great Mobile” 1 yr 0 mo
1851 Aug 3 “Great Middle Florida”

[bvigal]

...I hope I did not jinx things...

Amen to that!!!
Serously, thanks for putting this together and posting here. It's very interesting!

[somethingfunny]

I remember that there was a long hurricane "drought" following 1999....Bret was the last major landfall and Irene in October 1999 was the last hurricane landfall. Lili in 2002 nearly broke the trend after three years but weakened below major status before landfall. The major hurricane landfall drought was broken in a huge way on Friday August 13, 2004 - by Charley of course. Five years. Ike and Gustav came close three years after Wilma....will we make it through a fifth year without a major hurricane strike this time?

There's really no such thing as being "due", of course. If you stretch out the seven major hurricane landfalls in 2004-2005 over the entire decade of 1999-2009, we had 8 major hurricane landfalls in 10 years. Hardly a drought in my opinion. It just depends on the steering currents and favorable conditions near the coastline.

That is really interesting about 1979-1993 however.

[Jessie]

I really enjoyed that. Thanks

[Ptarmigan]

Interesting. It only takes one to mess things up. Even during the less active cycle, we had devastating hurricanes like David, Frederick, Allen, Alicia, and Hugo. 2004-2005 had many major hurricanes make landfall. I have a hunch that some of the 1886 hurricanes were stronger than we realize.

[Stephanie]

Thank you for putting together that information. Very interesting!

[Ivanhater]

That is very interesting.

Though looking over the factors for this season, this year looks to end the drought unfortunately.

[StormClouds63]

Thanks for taking the time to compile this information.

The limitations with the Saffir-Simpson scale are clearly seen, however, when Ike is a category 2 hurricane (not classified as a major).

It may, too, have its flaws, but the HSI (Hurricane Severity Scale) takes into account both intensity and size:

http://www.impactweather.com/HSI.pdf
http://www.impactweather.com/HSI.pdf

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Yes, I agree the new system should be a bit better at identifying true storm intensity. Look at Hurricane Floyd, that was a massive storm, and it completely devastated North Carolina, not to mention the massive evacuations up most of the east coast because of it. Years later, NC was still showing the signs of that storm like no other in modern history. The flooding was biblical!

Even smaller storms also may classify differently. Faye wasn't so much strong as a persistent little b*tch! It would be interesting to see a scale that was an "overall impact" that also took into account longevity and/or total area affected. Though I suppose the post analysis of overall economic impact would provide a glimpse of the overall severity to a region.

[micktooth]

Very interesting, thank you. However I have a belief that every hurricane is a "major" hurricane if it's over your house