ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - DISCUSSION

[sphelps8681]

TWC Dr. Knab just said this am not going to be today. They don't do flights over land.

[KWT]

Ah thats fair enough, unless they think the center maybe offland still but we shall see...

Still held at 30% which means they probably won't bother going anyway today.

[Nimbus]

Does appear there may be a lower shear environment for invest 96 once it gets back out over the gulf.

The Texas coast makes it tough to narrow in on a landfall for a storm moving north or northwest. It will be a challenge for the NHC to forecast the track as well with 96L as they did with Alex.

Aric hasn't issued any speculations yet so I guess we can wait another day.

[KWT]

I think 96L is probably heading for C.Texas....the models don't seem very keen on this developing at all now though and I think the odds of development overall before landfall is starting to go down now as it doesn't look to me like its getting any more organised really...

[johngaltfla]

I honestly think that if it doesn't develop and just stays an open wave, you won't hear any hearts breaking in the GOM. We really need the Gulf to remain storm free until the relief wells are finished and cap that disaster.

[srainhoutx]

Sunrise over the Yucatan...

[KWT]

I honestly think that if it doesn't develop and just stays an open wave, you won't hear any hearts breaking in the GOM. We really need the Gulf to remain storm free until the relief wells are finished and cap that disaster.

To be honest given the surging SSE airflow at lwoer levels still, not sure its going to make a huge amount of difference to the oil spill if this developed or not really, wouldn't be much of a wind difference unless it got close to TS status.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

Just off the coast near Cancun.

AL, 96, 2010070612, , BEST, 0, 201N, 870W, 30, 1007, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[xironman]

Lots of convergence and divergence going to waste on this one.

[Nederlander]

Western Gulf = dry air

[KWT]

That placement puts it on the northern side of the deep convection which makes sense with the upper NW winds aloft.

[HouTXmetro]

Doesn't look organized but impressive convection this AM. and the Convection has been persistent in one area which leads me ti believe something was trying to work it's way down.

[djones65]

96L is totally disorganized this morning. I believe the concentration of convection over the Yucatan is an mid level circulation just like a couple of days ago. I see a definitive low level cyclonic rotation in the low cloud field over the south central Gulf of Mexico well north of the Yucatan. If you can go to this link: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/ which is the Interactive satellite site go to the 1km visible imagery and look near 24N and 89W. If you use animation you will clearly see the surface low in the central Gulf void of deep convection. All I can find is SE winds and rising pressure over the Yucatan now. I personally believe IF a surface circulation were to form it would have to be over the central Gulf. It's as if the energy is being pulled rapidly northward towards 95L and what is being tracked near Cancun is another mid level circulation just like the one that formed on July 4th. Does anyone else see this also?

[KWT]

Doesn't look organized but impressive convection this AM. and the Convection has been persistent in one area which leads me ti believe something was trying to work it's way down.

Possibly but it does look like its really struggled to work anything down, afterall its had the MLC for some time now.

[Dean4Storms]

96L is totally disorganized this morning. I believe the concentration of convection over the Yucatan is an mid level circulation just like a couple of days ago. I see a definitive low level cyclonic rotation in the low cloud field over the south central Gulf of Mexico well north of the Yucatan. If you can go to this link: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/ which is the Interactive satellite site go to the 1km visible imagery and look near 24N and 89W. If you use animation you will clearly see the surface low in the central Gulf void of deep convection. All I can find is SE winds and rising pressure over the Yucatan now. I personally believe IF a surface circulation were to form it would have to be over the central Gulf. It's as if the energy is being pulled rapidly northward towards 95L and what is being tracked near Cancun is another mid level circulation just like the one that formed on July 4th. Does anyone else see this also?

Yes and I talked about this early yesterday, the area of lowest pressure with some low level turning was off the NE tip of the Yucatan yesterday afternoon and the night before passed over the Buoy in the Yucatan pass which clearly showed this lows passage. It was moving rapidly NNW.

I think the convection is the western Carib. however did form a secondary low and that is what they came along and tagged as 96L yesterday. I guess you can switch the Invest to different lows.

[ConvergenceZone]

I honestly think that if it doesn't develop and just stays an open wave, you won't hear any hearts breaking in the GOM. We really need the Gulf to remain storm free until the relief wells are finished and cap that disaster.

Amen! My thoughts exactly. I love watching storms develop, but the oil spill makes me sad and thinking of a storm making it worse makes me even sadder.

[TYNI]

96L is totally disorganized this morning. I believe the concentration of convection over the Yucatan is an mid level circulation just like a couple of days ago. I see a definitive low level cyclonic rotation in the low cloud field over the south central Gulf of Mexico well north of the Yucatan. If you can go to this link: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/ which is the Interactive satellite site go to the 1km visible imagery and look near 24N and 89W. If you use animation you will clearly see the surface low in the central Gulf void of deep convection. All I can find is SE winds and rising pressure over the Yucatan now. I personally believe IF a surface circulation were to form it would have to be over the central Gulf. It's as if the energy is being pulled rapidly northward towards 95L and what is being tracked near Cancun is another mid level circulation just like the one that formed on July 4th. Does anyone else see this also?

I see what you mean at 24N/89W. 850mb vorticity in this area is high. Pressure is rising, though, 1016/1014 in the area. Not much convection on visible. Shear has let up in the past 3 hours in the immediate vicinity. Looks like 95L remnants sucking the water vapour from 96L, replacing the drier air in the gulf.

[KWT]

Regardless of what 96L does in terms of development it looks like it'll be a very rainy set-up if it brings up as much moisture as it currently has.

[HURAKAN]

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[Sanibel]

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If we interpolate Alex directly 96L should develop into a hurricane before shore wherever it landfalls in the Gulf.

The convection behavior is definitely persistence with a consolidating central convection area. Alex did this as well before it developed into a cyclone.


96L will hit a cool water pocket off Yucatan so the rebound should be delayed.


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