ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - DISCUSSION

[Dean4Storms]

do you all think we will have something to watch tonight??

Yes, the convection near 19n 86w is near the low center. If it maintains through the nite it could develop a LLC, always needs to be watched when you have a tropical low in a low shear environment and convection nearby.

[Ivanhater]

[redfish1]

will the center form in the red area if it does form?

[Ivanhater]

Looks like the strongest vorticity is around the western tip of Cuba

[redfish1]

Looks like the strongest vorticity is around the western tip of Cuba

ok thank you for answering my question and if thats the case would that change the model runs any?

[Ivanhater]

Looks like the strongest vorticity is around the western tip of Cuba

ok thank you for answering my question and if thats the case would that change the model runs any?

Well without a center you really want to take the models with a grain of salt and focus on the broader set up. The vorticity helps to focus on where a center has the best shot on developing but not a 100 percent.

We are still in the pre stages of development, if any, so no one really can tell you specifics right now. Best thing is to follow along and have some patience.

[Weatherfreak000]

Development of an LLC is definitely most likely to come from that area with the convective ball, all the rest of the convection has now died off.


I am still bullish on this storm. Every storm has a bad day convectively, especially this early in the season. Surely if 95L can almost do it....

[Macrocane]

Yes, I agree about not ruling out development yet, I want to wait to see what can D-max can do to 96L, if tomorrow morning it is not better organized then development will be less likely. That's just my unofficial opinion.

[blp]

I have been keeping track of a nearby ship and it does appear that there might be a broad circulation in the area. Pressure is now rising as the ship gets further away from the area but it did show winds out of the SSW (200) about 2 hours ago with winds around 36 knots and lowest pressure of 1008MB. I think the ship was a little further east of the center of the broad low and we could have had slightly lower pressures.

Source: http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shippo ... call=9HRJ9


Celebrity Solstice

Last reported at 2010-Jul-06 01:00 UTC.

Time Lat Lon Dir Wind Pressure
2010-Jul-06 01:00 N 20°54' W 083°54' 170 20 1010.0
2010-Jul-06 00:00 N 21°00' W 084°06' 200 36 1009.0
2010-Jul-05 23:00 N 21°18' W 084°36' 140 34 1008.0
2010-Jul-05 22:00 N 21°24' W 084°42' 140 34 1008.0
2010-Jul-05 21:00 N 21°36' W 084°54' 140 34 1008.0
2010-Jul-05 20:00 N 21°48' W 085°06' 150 23 1009.0

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[rockyman]

FWIW, Playa del Carmen is reporting northwest winds.

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/fin ... pe=WEATHER

[latitude_20]

Almost thinking I see the beginnings of circulation over western Cuba - anybody else see that?

[ozonepete]

It's somewhere in there. Should be an LLC now under or near the convection northeast of Cozumel, especially considering there are northwest winds at Playa del Carmen.

[Ivanhater]

LATEST

[canes101]

Did they really go down to ZERO percent tonight?? You would think they would of at least kept it at 10% no?? there is obviously a chance of some type

[Ivanhater]

Did they really go down to ZERO percent tonight?? You would think they would of at least kept it at 10% no?? there is obviously a chance of some type

This is at 30 percent..95l went to 0 percent

[wx247]

The convection near Cozumel has really sustained itself this evening... I think that is the area to keep an eye on overnight.

[ozonepete]

The convection near Cozumel has really sustained itself this evening... I think that is the area to keep an eye on overnight.

Yup. I agree.

[blp]

Buoy 42056 is quite close to the convection ball. Pressure has been rising some and the winds are up. Nothing definite yet as to the LLC.

[smw1981]

Looks like the strongest vorticity is around the western tip of Cuba

ok thank you for answering my question and if thats the case would that change the model runs any?

Well without a center you really want to take the models with a grain of salt and focus on the broader set up. The vorticity helps to focus on where a center has the best shot on developing but not a 100 percent.

We are still in the pre stages of development, if any, so no one really can tell you specifics right now. Best thing is to follow along and have some patience.

Well said Ivanhater! Now, if only everyone could keep that thought throughout the season, we wouldn't have 143 pages of "it's coming here", "no, i think it's coming here" back and forth like we do with big storms! Although so far this season, it has been pretty tame. We shall see how everyone's patience is in September!