ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION

[mattpetre]

Actually if they had intended to upgrade it then there would have been no need for the STWO, they would have simply upgraded it. Since they do not intend to upgrade the necessity of the STWO is to alert residents that tropical storm conditions are possible this evening as it is moving inland. At least that's how I interpret it...

That sounds more like the job of the NWS.

The NWS's job is to interpret how and why the NWS puts out statements?

Looks to me that it really doesn't matter how this system is classified, it's basically no worse than a typical front of storms dropping through the midwest.

[Stormcenter]

Agree 100%

>>I couldn't find any obs showing a closed off circulation at the surface from the buoy data, let alone a well defined one. And earlier, that station was reporting a 15 knot wind...the winds on the NW/W side of the low are light and variable at best.

It's pretty obvious that the low was closed off (per blatant visible), but the circulation is extremely small. You see inflow all around and into the center, and that's not upper or mid level stuff there. We may need a ship ob from the time period to close it off, but the entire circulation may well be between buoys and observation stations. I agree that it wasn't probably a tropical storm, but I'm about 95% sure it was a depression coming in.

[brunota2003]

>>I couldn't find any obs showing a closed off circulation at the surface from the buoy data, let alone a well defined one. And earlier, that station was reporting a 15 knot wind...the winds on the NW/W side of the low are light and variable at best.

It's pretty obvious that the low was closed off (per blatant visible), but the circulation is extremely small. You see inflow all around and into the center, and that's not upper or mid level stuff there. We may need a ship ob from the time period to close it off, but the entire circulation may well be between buoys and observation stations. I agree that it wasn't probably a tropical storm, but I'm about 95% sure it was a depression coming in.

We'll see...it should pass just to the east of the one obs point, and we'll see what the winds do, if it has a closed llc or not.

[HURAKAN]

Actually if they had intended to upgrade it then there would have been no need for the STWO, they would have simply upgraded it. Since they do not intend to upgrade the necessity of the STWO is to alert residents that tropical storm conditions are possible this evening as it is moving inland. At least that's how I interpret it...

That sounds more like the job of the NWS.

The NWS's job is to interpret how and why the NWS puts out statements?

Looks to me that it really doesn't matter how this system is classified, it's basically no worse than a typical front of storms dropping through the midwest.

To say that a low pressure is making landfall and could produce thunderstorms and showers you don't need the NHC. Your local weather office can do that.

[ozonepete]

>>I couldn't find any obs showing a closed off circulation at the surface from the buoy data, let alone a well defined one. And earlier, that station was reporting a 15 knot wind...the winds on the NW/W side of the low are light and variable at best.

It's pretty obvious that the low was closed off (per blatant visible), but the circulation is extremely small. You see inflow all around and into the center, and that's not upper or mid level stuff there. We may need a ship ob from the time period to close it off, but the entire circulation may well be between buoys and observation stations. I agree that it wasn't probably a tropical storm, but I'm about 95% sure it was a depression coming in.

Exactly. And it still has time to reach TS status if it hugs the coast for a while. I still say that's why they changed it to code red.

[HURAKAN]

[CrazyC83]

Based on radar, the center would be at 29.15N, 91.21W - about 4 miles offshore and 37 miles south of Morgan City. A new convective band is helping find it.

[mattpetre]

That sounds more like the job of the NWS.

The NWS's job is to interpret how and why the NWS puts out statements?

Looks to me that it really doesn't matter how this system is classified, it's basically no worse than a typical front of storms dropping through the midwest.

To say that a low pressure is making landfall and could produce thunderstorms and showers you don't need the NHC. Your local weather office can do that.

Got it. I totally misinterpreted that one. My bad.

[ozonepete]

yes, Hurakan. That's clearly the message we're getting. It doesn't surprise me that in a case like this the NHC isn't sure what to do. As much as they have learned, and as good as they are, they will occassionally run into brain-twisters like this. It's the kind of forecasting challenge that got me so into meteorology.

[bahamaswx]

I've seen many high-latitude systems classified with convection no deeper than this one. Not really sure I buy that argument against it.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[brunota2003]

I've seen many high-latitude systems classified with convection no deeper than this one. Not really sure I buy that argument against it.

But it isn't a high latitude system over 24 degree SSTs...that's the thing! This system is over SSTs of at least 28C, so the convection should be a LOT deeper than a few yellows.

[tolakram]

Wow, was not paying attention today!

Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

What in the world is that little dude doing? Very surprising.

[KWT]

I've seen many high-latitude systems classified with convection no deeper than this one. Not really sure I buy that argument against it.

True but as has been said the temperatures below it are quite a lot higher.

That being said the Vis.imagery does look like a small TD again it has to be said but as we saw yesterday such presentations can go down hill very rapidly...plus this one is pretty much onshore now.

[ozonepete]

I've seen many high-latitude systems classified with convection no deeper than this one. Not really sure I buy that argument against it.

True but as has been said the temperatures below it are quite a lot higher.

That being said the Vis.imagery does look like a small TD again it has to be said but as we saw yesterday such presentations can go down hill very rapidly...plus this one is pretty much onshore now.

Excellent point, KWT. That is exactly why. And the night is coming. It's quite likely this will fire up, and we'll see how the winds respond. I'm not saying I expect this to clear the TS threshold, just that it still has a chance if it hugs the coast, i.e. you can't rule it out yet.

[redfish1]

which way is it moving right now?

[ozonepete]

I've seen many high-latitude systems classified with convection no deeper than this one. Not really sure I buy that argument against it.

I was gonna say that too.

[ozonepete]

which way is it moving right now?

Looks northwest to west-northwest. Hugging the coastline.

[HURAKAN]

Lets see what they say in the 8 pm TWO.

I'm guessing they will lower the chances of development.

[redfish1]

which way is it moving right now?

Looks northwest to west-northwest. Hugging the coastline.

if thats the case we may get some of this in southeast texas....am i right or wrong?