djones65 wrote:Wxman57, 12,500 feet, wouldn't that be similar to a recon plane at 700 mb or 10000 feet? Using a .90 conversion factor, or even a .85 would be an accurate way to measure potential surface winds. If the Doppler velocities were 40 knots or so then surface winds could reasonably be estimated at 34 knots. This storm is a very small compact system. We have a large network of ship, buoys, and oil platforms offering observations, but relative to the size of the circulation and the area being affected, they are still few and far between. If this was a larger circulation then I would agree that the surface obs do not substantiate a storm, but this is a tiny system and I believe it is possible for much stronger winds to exist near the center where no obs are being made. Even in your satellite and observation graphic, there were only 7 surface obs being utilized over an area in excess of 200 miles. That is a lot of "holes" for stronger winds to be observed. With all that being said, I thought this system was a tropical storm yesterday very similar to Marco of 2008 which many others posted similar thoughts. Today it is not as well organized but I definitely think it is a tropical depression, and I would not at all be surprised if tropical storm force winds were observed around the center especially to the east.
At 12,500 feet, the surface winds would be about 95% of the radar estimate. The center bands are not TS-intensity by any measure though.
The Grand Isle band is the strongest on radar, with winds around 40 kt at 7,500 feet (a reduction of 85% puts it at 34 kt, right on the TD-TS line.)
