ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH OF MORGAN
CITY LOUISIANA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND BY
LATE TONIGHT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KIMBERLAIN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH OF MORGAN
CITY LOUISIANA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND BY
LATE TONIGHT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KIMBERLAIN
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MGC
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION
Just looking at its radar presentation it looks like a TD to me.....MGC
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH OF MORGAN
CITY LOUISIANA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND BY
LATE TONIGHT.
Just goes to show what I know. looks like a TD to me. Well lots of tropical down pours today and tomorrow for me, and bad conditions for clean up effort!
PS sorry MSG I didn't see your post.
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH OF MORGAN
CITY LOUISIANA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND BY
LATE TONIGHT.
Just goes to show what I know. looks like a TD to me. Well lots of tropical down pours today and tomorrow for me, and bad conditions for clean up effort!
PS sorry MSG I didn't see your post.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The NHC weren't ever gonna upgrade this one so close to land and with it previously being at 10%...the convection needs to last a certain amount of time before the NHC really get keen.
That being said I have few doubts it may have briefly been a TD yesterday.
That being said I have few doubts it may have briefly been a TD yesterday.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION
Well I guess this is about the same as a TD anyway.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 108 PM CDT MON JUL 5 2010 UPDATE A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. COASTAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR AS WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES COMBINE WITH ABOVE NORMAL WATER LEVELS AND AN INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. THE THREAT FOR COASTAL FLOODING IS HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY MORNING THAN ON TUESDAY MORNING.
MARINE A SMALL NON-TROPICAL LOW SITTING OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS SOUTH OF MORGAN CITY WILL MOVE NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INLAND. SW WINDS 10-15 KT DOMINATE TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KT AROUND TSTMS. SHORT TERM MODELS FORECAST TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENTS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED WITH HIGH PRES REMAINING OVER GEORGIA AND AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN MOVES NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WED AS WINDS RISE TO AROUND 20 KT. THE 12Z NAM12 HAS STRONGER WINDS TUE INTO EARLY WED WITH SOME 30-35 KT REACHING THE GULF WATERS EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE NAM12 IS ALSO FASTER THAN THE OTHER SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INCREASING WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING. THE GFS AND SREF MODELS ALSO INCREASE WINDS...BUT ONLY TO AROUND 20-25 KT AND ARE ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE WIND FIELD OVER THE EASTERN HAVE OF THE COASTAL WATERS. AT THIS POINT FORECASTS SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BUT MORE IN THE DIRECTION OF THE GFS. THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN IS LESS ORGANIZED THAT 24 HOURS AGO. CURRENT NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECASTS INDICATE THAT THE WAVE WILL WORK NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY MIDDAY WED THEN HEAD TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS OR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST. THERE IS ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. SWELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO ABOUT 8 FEET N THE OUTER GULF WATERS WED. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM THE EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. 92/ALBRECHT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 108 PM CDT MON JUL 5 2010 UPDATE A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. COASTAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR AS WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES COMBINE WITH ABOVE NORMAL WATER LEVELS AND AN INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. THE THREAT FOR COASTAL FLOODING IS HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY MORNING THAN ON TUESDAY MORNING.
MARINE A SMALL NON-TROPICAL LOW SITTING OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS SOUTH OF MORGAN CITY WILL MOVE NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INLAND. SW WINDS 10-15 KT DOMINATE TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KT AROUND TSTMS. SHORT TERM MODELS FORECAST TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENTS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED WITH HIGH PRES REMAINING OVER GEORGIA AND AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN MOVES NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WED AS WINDS RISE TO AROUND 20 KT. THE 12Z NAM12 HAS STRONGER WINDS TUE INTO EARLY WED WITH SOME 30-35 KT REACHING THE GULF WATERS EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE NAM12 IS ALSO FASTER THAN THE OTHER SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INCREASING WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING. THE GFS AND SREF MODELS ALSO INCREASE WINDS...BUT ONLY TO AROUND 20-25 KT AND ARE ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE WIND FIELD OVER THE EASTERN HAVE OF THE COASTAL WATERS. AT THIS POINT FORECASTS SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BUT MORE IN THE DIRECTION OF THE GFS. THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN IS LESS ORGANIZED THAT 24 HOURS AGO. CURRENT NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECASTS INDICATE THAT THE WAVE WILL WORK NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY MIDDAY WED THEN HEAD TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS OR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST. THERE IS ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. SWELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO ABOUT 8 FEET N THE OUTER GULF WATERS WED. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM THE EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. 92/ALBRECHT
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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brunota2003
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CrazyC83 wrote:Closed circulation - check. Convection over center - check. Looks like a tropical cyclone to me.
Yeah...but the convection is not deep...and that is part of being a TC is having deep convection. It doesn't even have any oranges on IR.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION
The big question is the center completly closed off meang that surface winds are counter-clockwise fashion. Does anyone know whats going on at the surface. I do know that NHC sometimes does not spend the money on recon knowing the system will soon be on land. To me it looks like a depression on sat pics.
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CrazyC83
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We'll need to watch the observations post-landfall. That will be the best clue of whether or not it was a TD or TS. (If it was only a TD then I doubt they would do anything since it would not go into HURDAT)
If winds of 35 kt or higher are found then I do think they should revisit this as a possible unnamed tropical storm.
If winds of 35 kt or higher are found then I do think they should revisit this as a possible unnamed tropical storm.
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brunota2003
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Stormcenter
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Wow I can't see how this wasn't classified something.
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION
Stephanie wrote:CajunMama wrote:Hehe...Cantore tweeted my hometownJimCantore 95L trying to beat 96L to #Bonnie , however, t-storms NOT currently co-located near micro center south of Lafayette, LA
I don't see him tweeting "Glassboro, NJ" anytime soon...
Be careful what you wish for, I never expected him to be in Paducah KY either
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