ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - MODELS

[ROCK]

12z NAM doesnt show anything...

GFDL nothing more than a passing shower

CMC weak TS

HWRF weak TS


not much model support anymore....you can see the turning up near the Yucatan but all the convection left in the carib....

[tailgater]

12z NAM doesnt show anything...

GFDL nothing more than a passing shower

CMC weak TS

HWRF weak TS


not much model support anymore....you can see the turning up near the Yucatan but all the convection left in the carib....

Yeah, 95L nothing, 96L nothing, but it develops the area east of the Bahamas that the NHC had highlighted yesterday but nothing today.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[KWT]

Yeah most of the models are now not at all bullish on this system developing and only make it a weak system...if it fails that'll be 7 invests and only 1 actual system so far...

[Stephanie]

I'm still amazed at all of the invests so far. It signals to me that it's only a matter of time when they all start to develop, IMHO.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

12Z Operational GFS

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_054l.gif

[rockyman]

12Z Operational GFS

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_054l.gif

With that track, Deepwater Horizon would be in play

[rockyman]

12z CMC out:

24 hours:


48 hours:


60 hours:


Looks like it develops the system pretty far south, then pulls it up across the length of the Yucatan (south to north), then brings the system NNW toward the middle LA coastline, then does a left hook and landfalls on the upper Texas coast

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Wet for SETX!

[KWT]

GFS and the CMC in decent agreement of a weak system heading towards SE Texas. The key issue is the amount of rainfall the models bring into the area with the combo of 95L and 96L according to the models, could well see locally some rather high values...

[Ivanhater]

Looks like all those runs of the Euro bringing it across the yucatan and into the boc were way to far south.

[Ivanhater]

12z HWRF...Houston

[Ivanhater]

GFDL

[Weatherfreak000]

Models have all now made a mad swing North.

[Wx_Warrior]

Models swinging north on a system that has yet to develop....

EURO showed development on this way before the "Good For Something."

Don't hate the EURO, hate the game......

[Ivanhater]

Unless of course it doesn't develop, then it is wrong in that department too. Let's see if the 12z Euro joins the rest of the models in shifting north.

Alex part 2 cancelled

[KWT]

To be honest though the ECM really does look likely to bust with its track on this one, it suggested landfall in N.Mexico/Brownsville region, where as the GFS/CMC look like they may not be far off from what happens.

[Wx_Warrior]

yesterday GFS has absolutely NOTHING out of this system. GFS para at least had a weak blob.

Good for the GFS to finally jump on the development board!

[Ivanhater]

12z UKMET...weak reflection SW Louisiana

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro still south on Brownsville...I smell a bust

[tailgater]

AFD out of NO
MARINE A SMALL NON-TROPICAL LOW SITTING OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS SOUTH OF MORGAN CITY WILL MOVE NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INLAND. SW WINDS 10-15 KT DOMINATE TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KT AROUND TSTMS. SHORT TERM MODELS FORECAST TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENTS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED WITH HIGH PRES REMAINING OVER GEORGIA AND AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN MOVES NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WED AS WINDS RISE TO AROUND 20 KT. THE 12Z NAM12 HAS STRONGER WINDS TUE INTO EARLY WED WITH SOME 30-35 KT REACHING THE GULF WATERS EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE NAM12 IS ALSO FASTER THAN THE OTHER SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INCREASING WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING. THE GFS AND SREF MODELS ALSO INCREASE WINDS...BUT ONLY TO AROUND 20-25 KT AND ARE ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE WIND FIELD OVER THE EASTERN HAVE OF THE COASTAL WATERS. AT THIS POINT FORECASTS SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BUT MORE IN THE DIRECTION OF THE GFS. THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN IS LESS ORGANIZED THAT 24 HOURS AGO. CURRENT NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECASTS INDICATE THAT THE WAVE WILL WORK NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY MIDDAY WED THEN HEAD TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS OR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST. THERE IS ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. SWELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO ABOUT 8 FEET N THE OUTER GULF WATERS WED. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM THE EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.