ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION
I've been out of town(Wyoming)for a few days and looking at this mornings Sat ir loop and radar it sure looks like a Circ. is there but I can't tell if it is at the surface or not? Vis pics this morning show a eddy NW of circulating blob or is that the weak LLC the NHC has been tracking?
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Frank P
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION
tailgater wrote:I've been out of town(Wyoming)for a few days and looking at this mornings Sat ir loop and radar it sure looks like a Circ. is there but I can't tell if it is at the surface or not? Vis pics this morning show a eddy NW of circulating blob or is that the weak LLC the NHC has been tracking?
My guess would be that it's the LLC ... interesting little naked twist huh... looks to be moving off to the west northwest.. convection way off to the SE of the llc... stays on this path and it will parallel the LA coast for a while...
Looks to be moving west more so than wnw now
Last edited by Frank P on Mon Jul 05, 2010 8:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Frank P
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION
Also a pretty impressive flare up of convection off the western coast of Fl.. I don't think it has anything to do with 95L .... east GOM rather disturbed this am..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION
Frank P wrote:tailgater wrote:I've been out of town(Wyoming)for a few days and looking at this mornings Sat ir loop and radar it sure looks like a Circ. is there but I can't tell if it is at the surface or not? Vis pics this morning show a eddy NW of circulating blob or is that the weak LLC the NHC has been tracking?
My guess would be that it's the LLC ... interesting little naked twist huh... looks to be moving off to the west northwest.. convection way off to the SE of the llc... stays on this path and it will parallel the LA coast for a while...
Yes, with a few more vis. pics now I can see that is, was the LLC I'll be watching closely today to see if the LLC gets sucked under that Circulating blob, which doesn't look like it 's going anywhere fast.
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caneman
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION
Frank P wrote:tailgater wrote:I've been out of town(Wyoming)for a few days and looking at this mornings Sat ir loop and radar it sure looks like a Circ. is there but I can't tell if it is at the surface or not? Vis pics this morning show a eddy NW of circulating blob or is that the weak LLC the NHC has been tracking?
My guess would be that it's the LLC ... interesting little naked twist huh... looks to be moving off to the west northwest.. convection way off to the SE of the llc... stays on this path and it will parallel the LA coast for a while...
Looks to be moving west more so than wnw now
Yeah Frank this is the area I've been watching. Wasn't this the MLC that broke off from 95L? Between the 2 faetures, we've had rain torrential rainfall here on the West coast of FLorida since last Wednesday. Will be interesting to see if it ends up developing.
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CajunMama
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION
Hehe...Cantore tweeted my hometown 
JimCantore 95L trying to beat 96L to #Bonnie , however, t-storms NOT currently co-located near micro center south of Lafayette, LA
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Frank P
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION
the little low who said no... ha... almost looks like the llc is being pulled closer into the area of convection.. its a lot closer now that earlier this morning.. also not moving very much either...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION
CajunMama wrote:Hehe...Cantore tweeted my hometownJimCantore 95L trying to beat 96L to #Bonnie , however, t-storms NOT currently co-located near micro center south of Lafayette, LA
Mirco center looks to be falling apart and getting sucked into Blob Mid level circ.
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Rad ... imate=true
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Circulation is trying to do what it did last night with the LLC getting dragged into the convection again...not going to have enough time to get upgraded by the NHC though given they only have it at 10% right now and they won't jump straight in with a depression.
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Stephanie
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION
CajunMama wrote:Hehe...Cantore tweeted my hometownJimCantore 95L trying to beat 96L to #Bonnie , however, t-storms NOT currently co-located near micro center south of Lafayette, LA
I don't see him tweeting "Glassboro, NJ" anytime soon...
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KWT wrote:Circulation is trying to do what it did last night with the LLC getting dragged into the convection again...not going to have enough time to get upgraded by the NHC though given they only have it at 10% right now and they won't jump straight in with a depression.
Maybe a orange out of this one if trend continues. With such a tiny storm it's hard to get good obs. to tell if there is a concern.
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Possibly though the thing that may hold the NHC back is the fact it is so close to land, a couple of hours of quicker motion brings it inland.
Thus far its not as impressive as it was at one point yesterday. The circulation maybe just an eddy feature that is circulating back into the broad circulation and into the convection again. Will be interesting to see what the NHC does with it though.
Thus far its not as impressive as it was at one point yesterday. The circulation maybe just an eddy feature that is circulating back into the broad circulation and into the convection again. Will be interesting to see what the NHC does with it though.
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Stormcenter
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IMO it looks like 95L is trying to give it one last shot
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION
IMO it's very close to becoming a TD, just some deeper convection near the center over time would probably do it.
57 feel free to shoot my thoughts down.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes
57 feel free to shoot my thoughts down.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION
tailgater wrote:IMO it's very close to becoming a TD, just some deeper convection near the center over time would probably do it.
57 feel free to shoot my thoughts down.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes
It looks decent but if the NHC didn't upgrade it yesterday then they aren't going to upgrade it with its current presentation either IMO...
That LLC we saw was probably just an eddy hence why it washed out very rapidly. MLC looks like its to the east of the that circulation we have. It looks decent and if it holds it'll get the NHC interested, but then again it looked better yesterday IMO briefly and that didn't get the NHC interested.
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Stormcenter
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
GMZ550-552-570-051915-
/O.NEW.KLIX.MA.W.0283.100705T1720Z-100705T1915Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1220 PM CDT MON JUL 5 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A
* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA OUT 20 NM OVER GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM OVER GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER LOUISIANA OUT 20 NM OVER GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...
* UNTIL 215 PM CDT
* AT 1215 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION IN THE COASTAL WATERS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS
34 KNOTS OR GREATER FROM PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER LA OUT 20 TO 60 NM...OR ABOUT 31 NM SOUTH OF ISLE
DERNIERS...MOVING NORTH AT 10 KNOTS.
* THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN AWAY FROM
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL LANDMARKS OVER THE INDICATED AREAS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...
AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.
&&
LAT...LON 2816 9101 2905 9097 2907 9010 2806 9029
2806 9053
TIME...MOT...LOC 1720Z 167DEG 8KT 2856 9068
$$
GMZ550-552-570-051915-
/O.NEW.KLIX.MA.W.0283.100705T1720Z-100705T1915Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1220 PM CDT MON JUL 5 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A
* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA OUT 20 NM OVER GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM OVER GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER LOUISIANA OUT 20 NM OVER GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...
* UNTIL 215 PM CDT
* AT 1215 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION IN THE COASTAL WATERS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS
34 KNOTS OR GREATER FROM PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER LA OUT 20 TO 60 NM...OR ABOUT 31 NM SOUTH OF ISLE
DERNIERS...MOVING NORTH AT 10 KNOTS.
* THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN AWAY FROM
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL LANDMARKS OVER THE INDICATED AREAS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...
AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.
&&
LAT...LON 2816 9101 2905 9097 2907 9010 2806 9029
2806 9053
TIME...MOT...LOC 1720Z 167DEG 8KT 2856 9068
$$
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