HouTXmetro wrote:It's early in the game but one can hope this stays weak. All the models point to a weak system right?
If it goes all the way across the GOM its hard to imagine this storm remaining a TS. But who knows.
ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - MODELS
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TwisterFanatic
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Re:
If it goes all the way across the GOM its hard to imagine this storm remaining a TS. But who knows.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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HouTXmetro
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - MODELS
this a big shift north but i'm taking it with a grain of salt because we don't even have an LLC.
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[Disclaimer: My Amateur Opinion, please defer to your local authorities or the NHC for Guidance.]
Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - MODELS
Shift north for sure on the EURO...but doesnt really do anything with it.....Maybe the CMC is not all that jacked after all....a more develope system would pull more northward....
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TheEuropean
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Mon Jul 5 03:04:38 EDT 2010
WHXX01 KWBC 050643
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0643 UTC MON JUL 5 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962010) 20100705 0600 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100705 0600 100705 1800 100706 0600 100706 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.3N 83.3W 19.6N 85.1W 21.6N 86.8W 23.7N 88.3W
BAMD 17.3N 83.3W 18.4N 84.6W 19.5N 85.7W 20.4N 86.9W
BAMM 17.3N 83.3W 18.8N 84.7W 20.3N 86.0W 21.8N 87.3W
LBAR 17.3N 83.3W 18.2N 84.1W 19.3N 85.5W 20.5N 87.2W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 29KTS 33KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 29KTS 32KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100707 0600 100708 0600 100709 0600 100710 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.4N 89.9W 28.2N 93.0W 29.8N 95.0W 29.9N 96.1W
BAMD 21.2N 88.1W 22.1N 91.3W 22.6N 95.2W 22.9N 99.5W
BAMM 23.0N 88.7W 25.2N 92.2W 26.8N 95.3W 27.4N 98.1W
LBAR 21.8N 89.1W 24.9N 93.0W 27.5N 96.5W 29.1N 97.6W
SHIP 38KTS 49KTS 57KTS 61KTS
DSHP 37KTS 48KTS 57KTS 43KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.3N LONCUR = 83.3W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 16.4N LONM12 = 82.6W DIRM12 = 323DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 15.7N LONM24 = 81.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
WHXX01 KWBC 050643
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0643 UTC MON JUL 5 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962010) 20100705 0600 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100705 0600 100705 1800 100706 0600 100706 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.3N 83.3W 19.6N 85.1W 21.6N 86.8W 23.7N 88.3W
BAMD 17.3N 83.3W 18.4N 84.6W 19.5N 85.7W 20.4N 86.9W
BAMM 17.3N 83.3W 18.8N 84.7W 20.3N 86.0W 21.8N 87.3W
LBAR 17.3N 83.3W 18.2N 84.1W 19.3N 85.5W 20.5N 87.2W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 29KTS 33KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 29KTS 32KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100707 0600 100708 0600 100709 0600 100710 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.4N 89.9W 28.2N 93.0W 29.8N 95.0W 29.9N 96.1W
BAMD 21.2N 88.1W 22.1N 91.3W 22.6N 95.2W 22.9N 99.5W
BAMM 23.0N 88.7W 25.2N 92.2W 26.8N 95.3W 27.4N 98.1W
LBAR 21.8N 89.1W 24.9N 93.0W 27.5N 96.5W 29.1N 97.6W
SHIP 38KTS 49KTS 57KTS 61KTS
DSHP 37KTS 48KTS 57KTS 43KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.3N LONCUR = 83.3W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 16.4N LONM12 = 82.6W DIRM12 = 323DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 15.7N LONM24 = 81.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Wx_Warrior
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - MODELS
Wx_Warrior wrote:Shows a system weaker than the Houston Astros...LOL
yes it does.....anyone know what JB is saying out there?
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Wx_Warrior
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TwisterFanatic
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - MODELS
Wx_Warrior wrote:Shows a system weaker than the Houston Astros...LOL
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Nederlander
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - MODELS
How about just paraphrasing xcool.. Kind of put it in your own words.. I've seen others do that..
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Wx_Warrior
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The SHIPS really aren't at all keen on developing this system, when the SHIPS only go upto 37kts in 48hrs it suggests conditions aloft for some reason may well be marginal...its probably why most models don't go over the top with development either.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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Tireman4
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - MODELS
Wx_Warrior wrote:Shows a system weaker than the Houston Astros...LOL
Ouch. LOL. I know we are bad...but...LOL
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - MODELS
Tireman4 wrote:Wx_Warrior wrote:Shows a system weaker than the Houston Astros...LOL
Ouch. LOL. I know we are bad...but...LOL
No we totally deserved that. They suck.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - MODELS
12Z Tropical models
Code: Select all
021
WHXX01 KWBC 051306
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1306 UTC MON JUL 5 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962010) 20100705 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100705 1200 100706 0000 100706 1200 100707 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.1N 85.7W 23.0N 87.3W 24.6N 89.1W 26.1N 90.7W
BAMD 21.1N 85.7W 22.4N 86.6W 23.5N 87.5W 24.6N 88.7W
BAMM 21.1N 85.7W 22.5N 87.1W 23.9N 88.4W 25.1N 89.9W
LBAR 21.1N 85.7W 22.5N 86.4W 23.8N 87.4W 25.3N 88.6W
SHIP 25KTS 24KTS 26KTS 31KTS
DSHP 25KTS 24KTS 26KTS 31KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100707 1200 100708 1200 100709 1200 100710 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.4N 92.5W 29.5N 95.9W 30.2N 98.3W 30.1N 100.4W
BAMD 25.5N 90.4W 27.3N 93.9W 28.5N 96.6W 28.8N 98.8W
BAMM 26.2N 91.7W 28.3N 95.4W 29.3N 98.0W 29.5N 100.1W
LBAR 26.9N 90.1W 29.3N 92.7W 31.0N 93.9W 31.6N 93.1W
SHIP 36KTS 51KTS 62KTS 66KTS
DSHP 36KTS 51KTS 31KTS 27KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.1N LONCUR = 85.7W DIRCUR = 330DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 19.9N LONM12 = 84.9W DIRM12 = 328DEG SPDM12 = 24KT
LATM24 = 16.0N LONM24 = 82.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
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Wow that really is a big ole shift northwards in the position. SHIPS aren't overly keen at the moment either compared with thier normal standards, with just a weak TS.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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