ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[SunnyThoughts]

-- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 JUN 2010 Time : 224500 UTC
Lat : 24:22:41 N Lon : 97:15:02 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 952.8mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 6.0 6.1

[hurricaneCW]

Also it should be noted that you don't see a lot of storms intensify all the way up to landfall. Most of them either are steady or weaken their intensity. Humberto and Charley are obviously exceptions to the rule.

There is a chance it may weaken a bit on final approach if the dry air comes in. It doesn't always happen in that area - Celia (1970) and Caroline (1975) rapidly intensified right up to landfall.

I doubt it, it's actually continuing to improve on visible imagery and landfall is about an hour or less away.

[CrazyC83]

Pressure probably down around 947mb adjusting for the SFMR with the extrapolated winds.

[RachelAnna]

More winds here in NW Harris County. Still not significant rain...

[HurricaneStriker]

12 more hours over water and I think we make a run at cat 4.

Without doubt this system is developing very rapidly, the whole presentation just screams category-3, its the 3rd amazingly 'pretty' hurricane in the month.

In my opinion, Darby wasn't pretty.

[CrazyC83]

Next VDM or dropsonde is very important - last chance to tie or beat Audrey. Need 946mb to tie and 945mb to beat.

[Ptarmigan]

Impressive satellite image!

Alex is quite an impressive hurricane. It looks like a major hurricane to me. 950 mb with 100 mph winds is not unheard of. Remember Ike? It had 944 mb and 100 mph winds. Alex and Ike were large.

[hurricaneCW]

If you can ever send a major to NJ, than I'll be impressed

You'd kill hundreds and cause damage worse than Katrina in such a storm...[/quote]


Goodness gracious.[/quote]

I was just kidding, I would never want something like that to happen, even a Cat 1 would do a lot of damage. Luckily my chances of getting either a hurricane or a major is extremely slim.

[HurricaneStriker]

Next VDM or dropsonde is very important - last chance to tie or beat Audrey. Need 946mb to tie and 945mb to beat.

They might as well do one now. Almost half of Alex is over land!

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

Really slowing down now.

[HurricaneStriker]

Looks like Alex is trying to strengthen still!

[Clint_TX]

Impressive storm, just drove down to Surfside beach here in Texas near Freeport, minor coastal flooding, beach totally flooded, but you could really tell that you were in the envelope of a tropical system even hundreds of miles away from landfall.

[Ivanhater]

Still strengthening for sure

[HurricaneStriker]

Now something is definately wrong with what this South Padre webcam is doing.

[tj1855]

J.B. nailed this one.............

[KWT]

I can only imagine HS they are in a break between the convection...but then again doesn't look likely given there is a heavy band over it at the moment!

The eye looks so perfectly circular right now, I personally wouldn't be surprised if this was upto 90kts right now myself.

[Ivanhater]

[KWT]

Big convective blow up around the eyewall again as the suns starting to go down, reflected in an increasingly impressive radar presentation of the circular eye.

[SunnyThoughts]

Holy Moly...look at those towers go up around the eyewall pheww