ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[mvtrucking]

Wow what a way to finish off June. Although I don't agree with the Cat 2 designation due to recons failure to find winds strong enough, it's probably not far off anyway and the pressure and presentation looks like a low end Cat 3. I'm kind of sad to watch Alex go because that means we'll probably have to wait 10-14 days for another system and I doubt it will be as strong as Alex.

We may be in for one heck of a ride the rest of this season!

[leaf blower]

Quite the rainmaker for the Gulf coast!!!

[KWT]

The pressure is still amazingly low for a 949-950mbs hurricane, 85kts would be a strained pressure-wind relationship even in the WPAC.

[CrazyC83]

949mb typically equates to 110-115 kt in the Atlantic.

[Bocadude85]

Looks like a pretty good rainband is getting ready to move into Brownsville

[hurricaneCW]

Come on 945!!

Fortunately that area is sparsely populated. The pressure isn't far off what Emily in 2005 was when it hit the same area (944mb).

I think a lot of people lucked out with Alex, had it turned further north and impacted Texas or even Louisiana, it could have been catastrophic. Still, we're going to see a lot of flooding, storm surge, and damage because we're not dealing with any fish system, it is impacting land even if it is sparsely populated.

[CrazyC83]

It appears the landfall location will be between Algodones and La Yeuga. Only a few small communities lie in the area. However, storm surge could be quite high as the RFQ appears headed over the southern part of Laguna Madre.

[KWT]

Amazing image leaf blower, the broader circulation really is bringing a moist unstable flow to the whole of the southern US states!

After little fact, only 3 systems in 2008 had a deeper pressure then Alex...Gustav, Ike and Paloma. Only a little bit behind the strongest hurricane of 2009, Bill as well.

[CrazyC83]

Come on 945!!

Fortunately that area is sparsely populated. The pressure isn't far off what Emily in 2005 was when it hit the same area (944mb).

I think a lot of people lucked out with Alex, had it turned further north and impacted Texas or even Louisiana, it could have been catastrophic. Still, we're going to see a lot of flooding, storm surge, and damage because we're not dealing with any fish system, it is impacting land even if it is sparsely populated.

That's correct. At least the overall damage may not be terrible. If it hit right at Brownsville/Matamoros, it would be catastrophic indeed.

[KWT]

I think a lot of people lucked out with Alex, had it turned further north and impacted Texas or even Louisiana, it could have been catastrophic. Still, we're going to see a lot of flooding, storm surge, and damage because we're not dealing with any fish system, it is impacting land even if it is sparsely populated.

Indeed, not to mention it'd have longer and even if it took its time you'd have to imagine like Ike in 2008 it'd eventually work its way up from borderline 2 to a borderline 3...

Exceptional June hurricane.

[hurricaneCW]

I wonder if Alex is going to break some records.

For example, the lowest pressure of a land-falling minimal cat 2 hurricane. Lowest pressure of a land-falling Cat 2 hurricane in June. There is no way Alex isn't breaking some record with his amazingly low pressure.

[Air Force Met]

Disagree with the upgrade IMO (no Recon support), but I guess they think the pressure and Dvorak override the Recon winds.

You know...there is such a thing as not finding the highest winds. Its a big ocean (Gulf...whatever)...and its a small plane. The odds that you are going to find the absolute max winds with a plane 100 ft long and 130 ft wide...when you are talking hundreds of sq miles are...well...small.

And you know this thing is moving west...and they are NOT flying in the N quad (eyewall)...and really...you are only talking a few kts.

If they were making Dvorak override the Recon...we would have a cat 3. If they were making RECON override the recon...we would have a cat 3...

So I have to disagree with your disagreement. I've been on these missions...and they can't be everywhere at once...and odds are...with a 950mb pressure...there are Cat 2 winds somewhere out there even of they haven't found them (and there are a lot of places in the N quad they haven't been).

[Tireman4]

Wow what a way to finish off June. Although I don't agree with the Cat 2 designation due to recons failure to find winds strong enough, it's probably not far off anyway and the pressure and presentation looks like a low end Cat 3. I'm kind of sad to watch Alex go because that means we'll probably have to wait 10-14 days for another system and I doubt it will be as strong as Alex.

We may be in for one heck of a ride the rest of this season!

Next thing you know, Houston gets 5 inches of snow...LOL.. Back to regularly scheduled programming....

[CrazyC83]

One thing to note: in 40 minutes is 0000 UTC July 1. So it may NOT be the strongest June hurricane ever technically if it is above 946 at that point but drops more before landfall.

[KWT]

I wonder if Alex is going to break some records.

For example, the lowest pressure of a land-falling minimal cat 2 hurricane. Lowest pressure of a land-falling Cat 2 hurricane in June. There is no way Alex isn't breaking some record with his amazingly low pressure.

Well its pretty impressive...and to be honest there isn't many cat-2s and above that have made landfall in June...in fact its the 2nd deepest June storm ever and isn't that far off the record either.

[wxman57]

Recon can only sample a tiny fraction of the winds in a storm. This storm certainly doesn't have the appearance of a Cat 1. It's likely a moderate Cat 2 and there could even be stronger winds.

[KWT]

Well recon having one more shot at the center to see what the pressure is at, very little time before landfall now...

[tolakram]

A slow down, wobble going on. Might buy them more time.

[tronbunny]

I was watching the webcams at Port Isabel, SPI and Matagorda Beach.
Quite a show for being so far away from the eye.
It's quite a good thing that the tide had been going out for a few hours. Low tide's at midnight local, helping to reduce the surge impacts.

[StormTracker]

7:00 Advisory(#21A):100 MPH Winds/950MB moving west @12 MPH
24.4 N/97.2 W (CAT 2)