ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[ConvergenceZone]

Thanks cycloneye, Initially I thought he was trying to compare 2005 to 2010 in terms of quantity, not quality, but he cleared it up....

[HurricaneStriker]

Austin got another one of those feederbands today. Good rain!

[MGC]

Hard to believe that Alex is still a Cat-1. The hurricane has been bombing the last few hours. A eye has become visible and the CDO has a donut presentation. Radar eye is impressive despite the distance from the radar. Having a hard time beliving this is a 90mph Cat-1 hurricane......MGC

[Weatherfreak14]

Just wow.

[HurricaneStriker]

6:00 advisory coming soon.

EDIT: WOW!!!

[baitism]

Forward motion seems to be slowing a bit, at least by looking at the Brownsville radar.

[TheBurn]

Gulf Shot

--

Northern Hemi Shot:
1- Alex is large
2- Big blob about to come off Africa

[KWT]

If they don't find winds that justify category-2 in the NE quadrant or possibly even close in the NW qaudrant I'd be very surprised, presentation isn just about as good as your to get in a hurricane below major hurricane strength, I can't think of any category-2's that looked as good as this does to be honest of the top of my head...

[Aquawind]

WOW! Glad it's heading inland quickly vs anymore time over the GOM.

[HurricaneStriker]

Thanks for the impressive images, TheBurn! +That wave looks suspicious.

[HurricaneStriker]

Seems like the flash flood warnings have flared up again in the South Padre area. Good thing all the tornado warnings are gone.

[Bocadude85]

If they don't find winds that justify category-2 in the NE quadrant or possibly even close in the NW qaudrant I'd be very surprised, presentation isn just about as good as your to get in a hurricane below major hurricane strength, I can't think of any category-2's that looked as good as this does to be honest of the top of my head...

I agree.. Alex is looking great right now

[WxGuy1]

When I saw that pic, I couldn't believe this was still a Category 1.

It can't be a cat 1. There's no way. Just hope recon gets some good readings before it starts to weaken.

Wow!

It has been near Cat 2 for a few hours now, and it's probably at the Cat 1/2 border now. Whether it gains a few more kts to bump it up to Cat 2 is rather trivial, IMO, in the grand scheme of things. The difference in the damage potential between a 100 mph Cat 2 and a 95 mph Cat 1 isn't terribly significant. Sure, it's a pain since someone down the road might compare Alex to a 75 mph tiny hurricane, but that's why one should look at central pressure and max wind speed at land fall instead of just SS category.

Despite its appearance and low minimum central pressure, it's "only" a Cat 1 or weak Cat 2 right now largely because it has a huge wind field for a low-end hurricane. Heck, the hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center, and the tropical storm force winds extend up to 205 mi. That's a very large wind field for a strong Cat 1 or weak Cat 2. Such a large field of TS and Cat1 force winds requires that one have an anomalously low central pressure, otherwise you wouldn't be able to maintain the pressure gradient required for such a wind field. Wind speeds in such systems (well, at least in the mesoscale and larger) are proportional to the pressure gradient, or the change in pressure over some distance. So, if the distance is large (dr is big), and you maintain a TS/Cat1 strength pressure gradient (dp/dr), then the total change in pressure from the center to the background state (that is, dp) must be quite large.

[HurricaneStriker]

Yeah. It was kind of the same situation with Ike for the large windfield. Hurricane Alex is still a very big threat to South Texas/North Mexico.

P.S: At first I thought WxGuy1 was KWT because of the avatar!

[Bocadude85]

Sounds like power has gone out on SPI

[KWT]

Looks like Alex is slowing down and taking a last minute wobble. Eye presentation also not looking as clear an as an hour ago on the radar and getting a little filled with weak precip.

Not surprising to hear of power cuts in SPI sadly.

[lrak]

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... tType=text

This is about my location, its rained all day and breezy.

[HurricaneStriker]

Looks like Alex is trying to buy more time over water eh?

[CrazyC83]

Pressure down to 952 now.

[KWT]

98kts from recon in I believe the NW eyewall...to be honest thats high enough probably for the NHC to upgrade given it wouldn't take much for there to be another 5-6kts in the NE eyewall...and the pressure is super low now at 952mbs, sure is after Audrey isn't it.

Does look like its slowed down somewhat again. Eye really is looking a little rain filled now.