ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[HurricaneStriker]

Best Category 1 storm I've ever seen. 2005 here we come.

Maybe there won't be a 2005 in 2010, but it sure is a good harbinger.

[bahamaswx]

Latest

Dry air slots are filling in quickly.

[HurricaneRobert]

Best Category 1 storm I've ever seen. 2005 here we come.

Sorry, but not even close to 2005. In fact, if I'm not mistaken, 2005 was already
further along than we are now. You need to keep in mind that 2005 was a rarity.

There was Cindy in early July, but it wasn't really upgraded to a hurricane until after the season. I just hope we don't burn through the names over the next three months.

[ozonepete]

Next advisory is at 6 pm CDT. Probably landfall will be between 7 and 10 pm.

Probably less then 2hrs now till landfall, the eye doesn't look *quite* as good as 30 mins ago on radar, but for a June hurricane it looks just about as good as you can get...

No doubt this is an exceptional hurricane, as exceptional or June as probably Rita from 05 is for a September storm, to give a good scale of what we are seeing...

Yes, looks like eye is weakening on the south side - may even be opening.

oops sorry - I forgot that there's attenuation of the signal from the Brownsville radar. The eye is doing just fine.

[HurricaneStriker]

Visible satellite representation is easily at Category 3.

[johngaltfla]

I have no thoughts that if Alex had been over open waters, we would be talking about a major hurricane based on the technology available.

That's what worries me. This is a June hurricane with September characteristics. I think a move to TN or KY might be in order.

[hurricaneCW]

Best Category 1 storm I've ever seen. 2005 here we come.

Sorry, but not even close to 2005. In fact, if I'm not mistaken, 2005 was already
further along than we are now. You need to keep in mind that 2005 was a rarity.

And after Alex, there's no indication at all that there's going to be another storm
anytime soon.

I didn't mean we would see similar activity to 2005 but that Alex is a beginning of a hyperactive season.

[johngaltfla]

Best Category 1 storm I've ever seen. 2005 here we come.

Sorry, but not even close to 2005. In fact, if I'm not mistaken, 2005 was already
further along than we are now. You need to keep in mind that 2005 was a rarity.

And after Alex, there's no indication at all that there's going to be another storm
anytime soon.

I wouldn't get too cocky about that statement. La Nina is just now cranking up and the SST's are ahead of 2005. It's too early to call it "not like 2005" IMHO.

[mcallum177]

Can someone explain what causes the wind to increase farther away from the center?

[HurricaneRobert]

Storms hitting the Northwestern GoM are also going to flood the coasts with oil. Moreso than if they hit Florida, east of the panhandle.

[ozonepete]

Best Category 1 storm I've ever seen. 2005 here we come.

Sorry, but not even close to 2005. In fact, if I'm not mistaken, 2005 was already
further along than we are now. You need to keep in mind that 2005 was a rarity.

And after Alex, there's no indication at all that there's going to be another storm
anytime soon.

I wouldn't get too cocky about that statement. La Nina is just now cranking up and the SST's are ahead of 2005. It's too early to call it "not like 2005" IMHO.

Way too early to say anything other that this is not a good sign.

[CrazyC83]

The only good thing is that this is headed for a sparsely populated area now, and the strongest winds could miss Brownsville and Matamoras.

[KWT]

Sorry, but not even close to 2005. In fact, if I'm not mistaken, 2005 was already
further along than we are now. You need to keep in mind that 2005 was a rarity.And after Alex, there's no indication at all that there's going to be another storm
anytime soon.

Well we don't ever know when the next system is coming, but Alex as a first hurricane is one heck of a system, and to have a hurricane into the 950mbs in June really is exceptional. Whilst numbers may not match 2005, Alex does show this season shares a background low pressure trait thats for sure!

I think I may just agree that this is the best looking category-1 I've ever seen, unreal hurricane!

[Cookie]

why do people try and compare this season to 2005 or other seasons.

no 2 seasons are the same end of.

this year their could be more then 2005, their could be less nobody knows.

[HurricaneStriker]

They just try to scare people I guess.

[ozonepete]

Can someone explain what causes the wind to increase farther away from the center?

?? It doesn't. In mid-latitiude cyclones or weak tropical storms you can see the highest winds away from the center, but not in strong tropical storms or hurricanes. In STRONG tropical cyclones the highest winds are always at the inner core. There may be some spurious gusts out in bands away from the center, but the heaviest winds are always in the inner eyewall.

[Evil Jeremy]

Alright, how about we just go out and name Alex S2K's Storm of the Month outright lol?

[ConvergenceZone]

Best Category 1 storm I've ever seen. 2005 here we come.

Sorry, but not even close to 2005. In fact, if I'm not mistaken, 2005 was already
further along than we are now. You need to keep in mind that 2005 was a rarity.

And after Alex, there's no indication at all that there's going to be another storm
anytime soon.

I wouldn't get too cocky about that statement. La Nina is just now cranking up and the SST's are ahead of 2005. It's too early to call it "not like 2005" IMHO.

But please keep in mind that high SST's and La Nina doesn't equate to 2005. That was a fluke year where conditions need to be absolutely perfect. Okay, back to Alex now

It does look better than it has all day. It will be interesting to see if it can make it to cat2

[hurricaneCW]

Can someone explain what causes the wind to increase farther away from the center?

?? It doesn't. In mid-latitiude cyclones or weak tropical storms you can see the gighest winds away from the center, but not in strong tropical storms or hurricanes. In STRONG tropical cyclones the highest winds are always at the inner core. There may be some spurious gusts out in bands away from the center, but the heaviest winds are always in the inner eyewall.

Well sometimes storms like Alex have double wind maximas where winds are just as strong away from the center as right around the center. Usually in those situations the outer winds are the same as the inner winds, however, most of the time (over 95% of the time) the strongest winds are right around the center.

[KWT]

Visible satellite representation is easily at Category 3.

Oh without a doubt its got a cracking ole presentation and Dvorak raw numbers are now closer to 6.0 which is about low end 4 higher end 3 type range on the Sat.estimates...

ps, EJ, Celia really should win storm of the month, afterall it was a category-5 Annular system, as pretty as this one is, Celia destroys Alex in terms of being stunning