ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[TexasF6]

Power outages in Cameron county..power lines down...wastewater backing up....listening to police scanner

[Weatherfreak14]

It looks to appear that Alex is trying on its last limb to strengthen to a Cat 2 here in the next 3 hrs before it makes landfall. I think landfall will be about 3 hrs or so before initial thought, it has got a lot more speed to it now. The IR loop shows the cloud tops getting higher and filling in the dry air around the eyewall. Be safe everyone

[HURAKAN]

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 96.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

[dabears]

increased...might hit 100 at landfall

[HurricaneStriker]

The final push. Alex with winds of 90mph!!

[HURAKAN]

Track

[tolakram]

NHC nailed the landfall point and stuck to the forecast. Professionals.

[southerngale]

Power outages in Cameron county..power lines down...wastewater backing up....listening to police scanner

Ugh... yeah, a reminder that hurricanes aren't the "good time" some people think they will be. Sweltering heat, no electricity, no running water, sewer backing up = some of the things to look forward to in a hurricane, aside from the damaging winds and possible surge/flooding.

[HurricaneStriker]

HurricaneStriker, there is a thread for posting the advisories.

Really? Okay. I didn't know that before.

[Sanibel]

Cyclones that move west under a ridge tend to get it together.

[TexasF6]

Police reporting more power outages...Cameron County....

[KWT]

Yeah but it probably hasn't got enough time to get upgraded now, unless recon do a quick pass through the NE quadrant again to try and find the category-2 winds...its not got long though it has to be said.

Upto 80kts though, so may have one final push in the last couple of hours before landfall...

[RainWind]

Wow! A landfalling hurricane during the day! Seems like the eye always hits when it is dark outside, at least in my experiences. Alex seems pretty intense right now, praying for all in his path.

[KWT]

Cyclones that move west under a ridge tend to get it together.

If this one didn't have the whole double Maxima presentation I have no doubts this would be knocking on the door of a major hurricane right now...luckily for us that hasn't happened...

[Sanibel]

Time really flies. It doesn't seem like that long ago that Hurricane Emily last went into Laguna Madre in 2005:

[tolakram]

Another satellite video, this one available in HD.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vgkRnGy37EE[/youtube]

[HurricaneStriker]

Not long, and Emily hit about the same area Alex did.

[KWT]

Latest from the discussion on the whole Category-2 idea:

"THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 80 KNOTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW ALEX TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL."

Looks like it could be a tight call, I wonder whether land fricition may just be able to tighten up the eyewalls briefly before they hit land to strengthen the system...that'll be its best shot, only a short window with that though.

[thetruesms]

A very rough estimate from the 21Z advisory wind swaths gives an IKE of 65.6 TJ, and a surge DPR of 4.1

[funster]

Alex can see: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg