ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[CrazyC83]

So far nothing to support an intensity higher than 80 kt.

[Evil Jeremy]

The next set from recon will show us whether we have a category-2 or not.

If you were talking about the set issued while or a minute after you were typing your post, no, we do not have a Cat 2 on our hands as of now.

[TheBurn]

[lebron23]

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/live-seve ... her-webcam

[cycloneye]

Kudos to NHC for their track forecast and intensity one.

[ConvergenceZone]

Since it's going to be landfalling in about 2 hours, if the next advisory doesn't show a cat 2, then it's probably as strong as it's going to get before landfall and will probably landfall as a cat 1

[KWT]

If you were talking about the set issued while or a minute after you were typing your post, no, we do not have a Cat 2 on our hands as of now.

Indeed, winds found at 80kts at the surface which means no category-2 for Alex...but really at 80kts the impact will be similar to a category-2 anyway directly in the eyewall...

Going to be a tough call as to whether the band with hurricane force gusts will get into the Rio Grande region or stay just to the south, going to be a very close call!

[HurricaneStriker]

Eye is pretty small, 11 miles in diameter according to radar imagery. Might fully collapse in the time it takes to make landfall.

[bahamaswx]

Hard to believe a storm with pressure in the 960's and that type of IR appearance doesn't have cat-2 winds in there somewhere.

[HURAKAN]

Latest radar loop

[HURAKAN]

144
URNT12 KNHC 302013
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012010
A. 30/19:54:00Z
B. 24 deg 24 min N
096 deg 42 min W
C. 850 mb 1090 m
D. 60 kt
E. 223 deg 10 nm
F. 330 deg 69 kt
G. 236 deg 51 nm
H. 959 mb
I. 15 C / 1523 m
J. 22 C / 1525 m
K. 20 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C12
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 1201A ALEX OB 14
MAX FL WIND 90 KT NE QUAD 19:59:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 90 KT NE QUAD 19:59:00Z
;

[TexasF6]

Feederband Squall in Austin TX........we had some areas of 3-4 inches yesterday

[HurricaneStriker]

Latest radar loop

Seems like the eye's getting filled in with precipitation.

[KWT]

That is what happens bahamaswx when the storm doesn't put all of its 'energy' into one eyewall and instead spread out between two wind Maxima's like Alex has.

Plenty of strong cells pushing into S.Texas, must be getting close to 12 inches of rain in the last 12hrs down there...W.eyewall not that far off from landfall now.

[TexasF6]

We've got mammatus clouds compliments of Alex....sign of instability....HELLO ALEX!!!

[HurricaneStriker]

It's a good thing that Alex didin't have another day at sea. That could be a disaster!

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HurricaneStriker]

We should see the next advisory anytime now...

[KWT]

That IR presentation is pretty immense it has to be said!

Recon shows the system has moved more or less due west in the last hour or so.

[HurricaneStriker]

Alex seems stronger on IR imagery by a huge scale. Check this out. A Category 1 that looks like a Major!!