ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[tolakram]

Youtube of the latest visual loop.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=31muU8CqHDI[/youtube]

26 good frames at: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=26

[KWT]

Just saw recon report and yeah system is moving north of west right now...probably a few hours till landfall.

System looks good right now, I personally think the NE eyewall will probably get close to category-2 winds, I think FL winds may well top 100kts for the first time with that pass...

[alanstover]

We are still getting rain down here in the mountains of western Guatemala this pm. from Alex´s "tail". I don´t have any data on precipitation in Mexico, but it seems safe to say that the impact of this storm has been and will continue to be very widespread.

[Duddy]

Tornado reported just now in the Houston area.

1905 6 E WADSWORTH HARRIS TX 2983 9583 TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED SEEING A TORNADO 6 MILES EAST OF WADSWORTH. THE TORNADO CAUSED MINIMAL DAMAGE IN A PASTURE. (HGX)

That's just a few miles Southeast of me! Better keep an eye out. Looks like another strong band about to pass through.

[tolakram]

Radar appears to have the eye moving a tad south of due west.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Im seeing it move due west now

[CrazyC83]

Just saw recon report and yeah system is moving north of west right now...probably a few hours till landfall.

System looks good right now, I personally think the NE eyewall will probably get close to category-2 winds, I think FL winds may well top 100kts for the first time with that pass...

FL winds need to be 104 kt to support an upgrade to Category 2 (by then I would think the plane would want to rise to 700mb level).

[Big O]

Latest radar indicates what may be the beginning of a WSW movement, as some of the models have depicted. If not, then certainly the heading is west or am I missing something?

[JTD]

NHC pretty much nails a track once again. Moving pretty much to where they said it would go.

Awesome work as always by them. They have my respect and admiration.

[latitude_20]

Maybe two to three hours to landfall??

[KWT]

Yeah though the 24hr track has actually been rather poor by the NHC standards from the looks of things...

Driving westwards now towards final landfall, matter of a couple of hours to go till we have out first landfalling hurricane of the season. Lots of rain still moving into S.Texas and still some decent wind gusts probably at the higher end of TS range.

[Evil Jeremy]

961.2 pressure found on center pass, but nothing yet supporting Cat 2.

[ConvergenceZone]

Yeah though the 24hr track has actually been rather poor by the NHC standards from the looks of things...

Driving westwards now towards final landfall, matter of a couple of hours to go till we have out first landfalling hurricane of the season. Lots of rain still moving into S.Texas and still some decent wind gusts probably at the higher end of TS range.

KWT, a couple of hours? Wow, I thought they were saying
very late tonight or tomorrow morning earlier today?

If that's the case, then yes, the cane is probably close to as strong as it's going to get.

[bahamaswx]

Still a nasty moat caused by dry air intrusion, but Alex's IR appearance looks better than ever.

[Evil Jeremy]

So it appears (with recon) that Alex is now moving west without much of a north component. Sharp turn indeed.

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 301959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

VALID 302000Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS OF TX INTO SW LA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS MT/WRN
ND...

...TX COASTAL REGION TO SW LA COAST...
SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN EXTENDED NNEWD TO INCLUDE THE FULL EXTENT OF
THE TX COAST AND SWRN LA COAST. NELY SURFACE WINDS WITHIN THESE
AREAS COMBINED WITH LOW-MID LEVEL WIND PROFILES VEERING WITH HEIGHT
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN CURVED HODOGRAPHS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES
SHOWED EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF 300-500 M2/S2 OVER S TX WHICH IS
LOCATED IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO HURRICANE ALEX AND VALUES OF 200-300
M2/S2 FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST TO SW LA. TORNADO PROBABILITIES HAVE
BEEN INCREASED TO 10 PERCENT OVER THE DEEP S TX COASTAL AREA WHERE
SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BANDS WITH EMBEDDED ROTATIONAL COUPLETS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE AND INLAND THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE
APPROACH OF ALEX AND EVENTUAL LANDFALL TONIGHT /SEE LATEST NHC
ADVISORIES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION/. FARTHER NNE ALONG THE
MIDDLE-UPPER TX COAST TO SW LA...THE FAVORABLE SRH VALUES WILL
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS CONVECTIVE BANDS MOVE INLAND.

...ELSEWHERE...
NO CHANGES REQUIRED ACROSS THE REST OF THE CONUS AS FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK.

..PETERS.. 06/30/2010

[crimi481]

Just as side - I think low spinning up on S.W. Florida coast? Tampa Radar loop
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no
Strange - as usually weather pretty quite this far away from Cane?

[KWT]

KWT, a couple of hours? Wow, I thought they were saying
very late tonight or tomorrow morning earlier today?

If that's the case, then yes, the cane is probably close to as strong as it's going to get.

Its sped up a little bit after slowing right down earlier on this morning but it seems like steering currents have strengthened again and is taking this system towards Mexico. Probably 2-3hrs till landfall...

The next set from recon will show us whether we have a category-2 or not.

[HurricaneStriker]

In my opinion, there's some cat 2 winds snuffed in Alex.

[thetruesms]

Latest radar indicates what may be the beginning of a WSW movement, as some of the models have depicted. If not, then certainly the heading is west or am I missing something?

The eye feature is kind of breaking down, making it a bit tougher to follow on radar - but it's essentially due west, which recon is bearing out.