Seems I remember the box being 25/65. Does anyone know?Is this storm going thru the magic box?
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
Is this storm going thru the magic box?
Seems I remember the box being 25/65. Does anyone know?
0 likes
-
chadtm80
-
Stormsfury
- Category 5
- Posts: 10549
- Age: 53
- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
- Location: Summerville, SC
He correct. I don't know if its a magic box they call it, but I think it was named for someone. This was the correct lat/Long that a storm could present a threat to the US if it were to pass through without it perhaps not spinning fish. In this case fish isn't in the equation; but neither is a storm yet I mentioned duals centers yesterday, and apparently there appears to be a mid-level circulation to the NE of the surface low. This, combined with the ULL near Jamaica, could further hinder development in the short term. Unless the surface low re-locates to the north, which is quite doubtful. looks to be westbound. Maybe the CV will yield something to get excited about. Cheers!!
0 likes
-
slosh
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 136
- Joined: Tue Jul 22, 2003 12:09 pm
- Location: New Port Richey, FL
- Contact:
For anyone interested in the "box", I found this on the web:
THE HEBERT BOX
...a generally reliable hurricane indicator
If Floridians want an early, generally reliable indication of whether an intense hurricane is destined to bang on their front door, they should keep an eye on the Hebert Box.
Discovered by a veteran meteorologist, the Hebert Box is a relatively small section of ocean touched by almost every Atlantic storm 1900 that struck South Florida as a major hurricane. If a Category 3, 4 or 5 storm in the Atlantic never touches the region bordered by latitudes 15 and 20 degrees north and longitudes 60 and 65 degrees west, it virtually always misses South Florida. And if one of those storms, with winds higher than 110 mph, touches that region ...
"Really, really pay attention," said Paul Hebert (pronounced HAY-bear), a former forecaster at the National Hurricane Center who discovered the phenomenon.
For what it's worth: Dean was born Wednesday just outside the Hebert Box. The storm fell apart. Still, experts said, South Floridians must pay attention to every tropical-weather system.
"It would be foolish to think that a major Atlantic hurricane could not hit the Miami area if it did not go through the box," said Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center.
Example: The 1935 Labor Day hurricane that ravaged the Florida Keys as a Category 5 monster, killing hundreds. It never touched the Hebert Box. Still, special attention should be paid to storms that move through the box. It is a matter of geography and climatology,scientists say.
When storms come through the box, they still have space and time to develop into strong hurricanes before reaching Florida. When storms miss the box, they often are too close to Florida to intensify. Or they are so far away that they are vulnerable to forces that pull them across the Caribbean, crash them into the mountains of the Dominican Republic, Haiti or Cuba, push them north of Florida or bend them toward the open ocean.
The 335-mile-by-335-mile area encompassed by the Hebert Box includes the U.S. Virgin Islands and other Caribbean islands, but not Puerto Rico.
The Hebert Box should not be confused with a much larger "box" -- extending from the Gulf of Mexico to the Dominican Republic -- designated by insurance companies. When a storm enters that zone, insurers stop writing new policies in Florida and upgrading existing policies.
The pattern identified by Hebert has persisted since 1900 and has proven accurate for nine of 10 storms that developed in the Atlantic and struck Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties as major hurricanes, he said.
THE HEBERT BOX
...a generally reliable hurricane indicator
If Floridians want an early, generally reliable indication of whether an intense hurricane is destined to bang on their front door, they should keep an eye on the Hebert Box.
Discovered by a veteran meteorologist, the Hebert Box is a relatively small section of ocean touched by almost every Atlantic storm 1900 that struck South Florida as a major hurricane. If a Category 3, 4 or 5 storm in the Atlantic never touches the region bordered by latitudes 15 and 20 degrees north and longitudes 60 and 65 degrees west, it virtually always misses South Florida. And if one of those storms, with winds higher than 110 mph, touches that region ...
"Really, really pay attention," said Paul Hebert (pronounced HAY-bear), a former forecaster at the National Hurricane Center who discovered the phenomenon.
For what it's worth: Dean was born Wednesday just outside the Hebert Box. The storm fell apart. Still, experts said, South Floridians must pay attention to every tropical-weather system.
"It would be foolish to think that a major Atlantic hurricane could not hit the Miami area if it did not go through the box," said Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center.
Example: The 1935 Labor Day hurricane that ravaged the Florida Keys as a Category 5 monster, killing hundreds. It never touched the Hebert Box. Still, special attention should be paid to storms that move through the box. It is a matter of geography and climatology,scientists say.
When storms come through the box, they still have space and time to develop into strong hurricanes before reaching Florida. When storms miss the box, they often are too close to Florida to intensify. Or they are so far away that they are vulnerable to forces that pull them across the Caribbean, crash them into the mountains of the Dominican Republic, Haiti or Cuba, push them north of Florida or bend them toward the open ocean.
The 335-mile-by-335-mile area encompassed by the Hebert Box includes the U.S. Virgin Islands and other Caribbean islands, but not Puerto Rico.
The Hebert Box should not be confused with a much larger "box" -- extending from the Gulf of Mexico to the Dominican Republic -- designated by insurance companies. When a storm enters that zone, insurers stop writing new policies in Florida and upgrading existing policies.
The pattern identified by Hebert has persisted since 1900 and has proven accurate for nine of 10 storms that developed in the Atlantic and struck Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties as major hurricanes, he said.
0 likes
-
ColdFront77
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Steve H. and 43 guests