ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[deltadog03]

It does...and if it does make landfall right around 25N imo not a great forecast cone from this am.

[KWT]

Worth noting there does look like there is some dry air working its way into the system so if recon doesn't find any winds to justify a category-2 when it does its next pass through the NE quadrant it may not make it given the dry air is creating a moat now around the inner core.

[SunnyThoughts]

[Big O]

As the western and northwestern sides of Alex begin to experiencing the frictional effects of land, would the decrease in velocity over the western and nortwestern sides of the storm relative to the higher velocities of the southeastern and eastern portions of the system induce a more nortwesterly or northerly wobble prior to landfall?

[americanre1]

Is that two separate eye walls???

[thetruesms]

Yeah but the problem with radar is that the waves have to go through or over the high cloud tops, so sometimes the pictures are actually a little off when you try to look at something 200 miles away from the radar site.

I'm confused about what you're trying to get at. Cloud particles have negligible propagation effects on S-band radars

[SoupBone]

South Padre Island DOTD reporting wind speeds of 26.5mph with gusts of 50.4mph.

http://www.decdatasystems.net/PharrTxDOT/

[funster]

You can see Alex on radar on the WFAA site as well. Appears to be moving wnw or west again recently.
http://www.wfaa.com/weather/radar?radar ... img=13&c=y

But it would only take a good wobble or two for Alex to end up around 25n

[HURAKAN]

Alex putting up a show in its final hours over water!!

[americanre1]

Yeah but the problem with radar is that the waves have to go through or over the high cloud tops, so sometimes the pictures are actually a little off when you try to look at something 200 miles away from the radar site.

I'm confused about what you're trying to get at. Cloud particles have negligible propagation effects on S-band radars

That is what I was told that after a certain distance, radar gets a little sketchy.

[Evil Jeremy]

Recon is about to make a center pass, which should give us more info on what direction he is moving in.

[thetruesms]

That is what I was told that after a certain distance, radar gets a little sketchy.

If you care about intensity, it can be. At long distances, you're sampling a part of the atmosphere that is significantly above the ground, and is sampling a considerably larger volume than areas near the radar. Eventually, you'll be sampling hydrometeors that are not representative of what's at the ground. However, all we're looking for is a vertically stacked, rain-free center. I wouldn't try and measure the width of an eye at great distance by radar due to the large resolution volumes, but if I'm just looking for a center fix, it's perfectly fine, and has a much higher temporal resolution than satellite, unless you're working SRSO

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[dabears]

With that great eye, I'm thinking the winds might be at 100 mph or more

[SunnyThoughts]

A doughnut surrounded by a moat

[KWT]

That dry air has nearly formed a total moat around the eye, so we are probably just about at peak strength, will either hold or slightly weaken in the final hours before landfall...the NE pass from recon will be key to seeing what happens...

[Evil Jeremy]

I don't think recon found the center where they thought they would.

[KWT]

Also worth noting recon suggests Alex has wobbled to the NW again in the last hour or so, it still had southerly winds a decent way to the north-west than the last recon pass.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[KWT]

Great image Hurakan there!

I think Alex maybe strengthening right now close to a category-2, recon just found winds of 76kts at the suface in the NW quadrant, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see winds are a little higher in the NE quadrant, we shall hopefully find out soon enough whats going on in the NE/E quadrant and whether it has strenghened enough to justify category-2...50-50 really!