ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[Frank2]

My comment yesterday (not on S2K) is that it'd make landfall to the north or south of the Rio Grande - we'll see...

Hurricane season - oh boy...

[Evil Jeremy]

this system is very strange... the track is fine.. but the pressure wind ratio basically throws out the norm.... lol

Aric, what do you make of Alex's northward tracking this morning and afternoon?

[KWT]

Will be very interesting to see just how much stronger the eyewall is, if the last set of passes from recon are anything to go by I think we will see something around 100kts at FL, so should see it upto 80kts...

[txagwxman]

96 knots FL, supports 77 knots at the surface

Could support 100 mph wind gusts at the surface.

[xcool22]

he back nw now.crazy storms

[KWT]

this system is very strange... the track is fine.. but the pressure wind ratio basically throws out the norm.... lol

Without a doubt, the fact it has 2 eyewalls before ever going through a EWRC is rather unusual as well but they ya go, still certainly one of the stronger June Hurricanes out there.

[txagwxman]

Many of the convective bands on the north of the storm have rotation...

[wx247]

Doppler radar indicates nearly 10" of rain has already fallen in Brownsville near the intersection of State Route 48 and US 77.

[KWT]

Storm seems to be very slowly bending back to a WNW looking at the radar, for the first time looks like the whole inner core is bending back south of 300 degrees for the first time in a while.

[brunota2003]

this system is very strange... the track is fine.. but the pressure wind ratio basically throws out the norm.... lol

Without a doubt, the fact it has 2 eyewalls before ever going through a EWRC is rather unusual as well but they ya go, still certainly one of the stronger June Hurricanes out there.

Not only that...but that second wind maxima has been there for a while, and he continues to strengthen steadily! It started with winds at max in the 60s or 70s...now in the upper 90s.

[ConvergenceZone]

Yep, unlike what I was saying yesterday due to it's presentation, now I think this is going to be ramping up in intensity from here until landfall...Looking much much better....

[KWT]

Many of the convective bands on the north of the storm have rotation...

Yeah I'm keeping a very close eye on that, we have got some tornado warnings out right now, may well see more as the NE quadrant edges closer to the shore.

[deltadog03]

Still looks to moving around 300-320....That radar beam is still prolly 18-20k over the cane right now.

[HURAKAN]

LOL, pressure and winds increasing. Looks like Alex is trying to find an equalizer

[rlltex]

[quote="TexWx"]It's closed.

This is a picture from my cousin's backyard.
South Padre

[img]http://img514.imageshack.us/img514/8597/img00214ee.jpg[/img][/quote]
That's a little scary--but I still envy them!

[tolakram]

That's a little scary--but I still envy them!

Apparently you would not have to pay for damage to your stuff? Come on now.

[KWT]

Hmm pressure way up at 964mbs, outer wind maxima FAR stronger then the inner eyewall...looks like the outer eyewall is trying to become dominant with winds probably justfying 80kts given recon didn't catch the NE quadrant very well.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Yeah its becoming more compact, i still expect the winds to creep up

[CrazyC83]

Given current data, I'd put the intensity at 75 kt.

[txagwxman]

NWS 3-5 foot storm surge Padre...found graphic noaa experimental that shows 7-9 feet (10% worst case) We will see what is right. I would think that the surge would be higher than 3-5 feet given the size of the storm.

http://www.weather.gov/mdl/psurge/active.php?Ty=e10&Th=10&Z=y1