ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - RECON

[gotoman38]

Repost for new page



URNT15 KNHC 301135
AF306 1101A ALEX HDOB 33 20100630
112530 2256N 09638W 8424 01434 9934 +173 +164 323048 050 038 005 00
112600 2254N 09638W 8430 01429 9931 +180 +165 322047 049 038 005 00
112630 2252N 09638W 8428 01431 9932 +180 +166 320047 047 040 004 00
112700 2250N 09638W 8434 01428 9934 +179 +168 318046 047 039 004 00
112730 2248N 09638W 8424 01439 9934 +180 +171 316046 047 040 003 00
112800 2246N 09638W 8433 01429 9935 +180 +173 317047 047 040 004 00
112830 2244N 09638W 8433 01433 9938 +178 +175 317047 048 041 004 00
112900 2242N 09638W 8427 01440 9939 +180 +177 316048 048 040 004 00
112930 2240N 09638W 8429 01437 9939 +180 +179 315049 049 039 005 00
113000 2238N 09639W 8432 01437 9940 +180 +180 310050 051 039 004 00
113030 2237N 09639W 8428 01442 9938 +183 +182 309052 053 039 004 00
113100 2235N 09639W 8429 01440 9940 +182 +182 310052 052 037 003 00
113130 2233N 09639W 8428 01441 9939 +181 +181 310052 053 037 003 00
113200 2231N 09639W 8431 01441 9941 +185 +184 311052 053 038 002 00
113230 2229N 09639W 8426 01445 9940 +186 +185 309054 054 037 003 00
113300 2227N 09639W 8433 01442 9945 +184 +184 308056 057 037 004 00
113330 2225N 09639W 8426 01451 9946 +185 +185 309056 057 038 003 00
113400 2223N 09639W 8428 01450 9948 +184 +184 308054 056 036 005 00
113430 2221N 09639W 8434 01445 9949 +185 +185 308053 054 035 004 00
113500 2219N 09639W 8426 01454 9949 +185 +185 308053 054 037 003 00
$$
;

[gotoman38]

URNT15 KNHC 301145
AF306 1101A ALEX HDOB 34 20100630
113530 2218N 09639W 8432 01448 9950 +185 +185 307054 054 035 004 00
113600 2216N 09639W 8429 01456 9954 +185 +185 307054 054 035 004 00
113630 2214N 09639W 8425 01459 9958 +183 +183 307053 053 036 003 00
113700 2212N 09640W 8432 01454 9955 +187 +187 305053 053 036 004 00
113730 2210N 09640W 8430 01458 9960 +183 +183 305052 053 037 003 00
113800 2208N 09639W 8424 01464 9962 +180 +180 302051 052 999 999 03
113830 2208N 09637W 8433 01457 9962 +180 +180 302049 050 999 999 03
113900 2209N 09636W 8437 01451 9959 +184 +184 305048 049 035 003 03
113930 2210N 09635W 8427 01462 9958 +185 +185 304048 049 036 004 00
114000 2212N 09634W 8428 01458 9957 +184 +184 304050 050 036 004 00
114030 2213N 09633W 8430 01453 9955 +184 +184 304051 051 036 004 00
114100 2214N 09631W 8426 01458 9955 +184 +184 303051 051 036 004 00
114130 2215N 09630W 8429 01453 9951 +187 +187 303048 049 035 004 00
114200 2217N 09629W 8429 01450 9951 +183 +183 302050 052 036 004 00
114230 2218N 09628W 8430 01448 9950 +181 +181 301054 054 037 004 00
114300 2219N 09626W 8432 01443 9949 +179 +179 302054 054 038 003 00
114330 2220N 09625W 8429 01447 9945 +183 +183 299051 053 040 003 00
114400 2221N 09624W 8429 01445 9945 +178 +178 300050 051 039 003 00
114430 2223N 09622W 8432 01441 9946 +178 +178 300051 052 039 004 00
114500 2224N 09621W 8429 01441 9943 +178 +178 299050 051 038 004 00
$$
;

[gotoman38]

[gotoman38]

URNT15 KNHC 301155
AF306 1101A ALEX HDOB 35 20100630
114530 2225N 09620W 8434 01436 9942 +178 +178 299049 049 040 006 00
114600 2226N 09618W 8426 01441 9940 +177 +177 298049 049 039 006 00
114630 2228N 09617W 8432 01434 9937 +179 +175 299047 048 040 006 00
114700 2229N 09616W 8428 01436 9935 +180 +172 298047 049 040 006 00
114730 2230N 09615W 8429 01430 9933 +179 +170 295047 049 040 006 00
114800 2231N 09613W 8430 01428 9938 +165 +165 291048 049 041 011 00
114830 2233N 09612W 8430 01424 9938 +159 +159 293049 052 042 011 00
114900 2234N 09611W 8429 01423 9932 +163 +161 298053 057 041 010 00
114930 2235N 09609W 8434 01422 9923 +181 +159 295048 049 039 009 00
115000 2236N 09608W 8424 01425 9918 +184 +158 294045 046 039 006 00
115030 2238N 09607W 8433 01413 9921 +176 +158 294047 047 038 010 00
115100 2239N 09605W 8430 01416 9921 +169 +158 294046 047 039 012 00
115130 2240N 09604W 8421 01420 9928 +154 +154 289048 049 042 017 00
115200 2241N 09602W 8436 01403 9926 +149 +149 290047 048 045 017 03
115230 2243N 09601W 8429 01408 9923 +154 +152 291049 050 045 016 00
115300 2244N 09600W 8429 01409 9918 +160 +150 299046 048 045 015 00
115330 2245N 09559W 8432 01407 9908 +177 +150 302038 040 039 010 00
115400 2246N 09557W 8429 01406 9901 +186 +152 305033 034 032 005 00
115430 2247N 09556W 8432 01401 9898 +188 +155 301033 033 031 004 00
115500 2249N 09555W 8426 01405 9896 +188 +160 299035 036 032 004 00
$$
;

PLUS++ I'm a CAT3 member now w00t.

Please contribute to storm2k.org.

Thanks!

[gotoman38]

Heavy convection coming

[gotoman38]

URNT15 KNHC 301205
AF306 1101A ALEX HDOB 36 20100630
115530 2250N 09553W 8429 01399 9895 +179 +165 298036 036 035 007 00
115600 2251N 09552W 8430 01395 9899 +167 +167 302034 036 040 010 00
115630 2252N 09551W 8433 01389 9895 +168 +166 297038 040 036 008 00
115700 2254N 09549W 8421 01399 9883 +186 +163 297041 042 034 006 00
115730 2255N 09548W 8433 01384 9877 +194 +162 297035 037 032 004 00
115800 2256N 09547W 8424 01390 9875 +191 +164 297035 036 033 004 00
115830 2257N 09545W 8432 01379 9873 +190 +168 299037 038 034 003 00
115900 2258N 09544W 8430 01380 9874 +183 +171 299037 039 034 005 00
115930 2300N 09543W 8421 01388 9874 +181 +173 294037 039 037 011 03
120000 2301N 09541W 8432 01374 9867 +189 +173 297040 040 028 004 00
120030 2302N 09540W 8428 01377 9863 +193 +173 298040 040 030 004 00
120100 2303N 09539W 8429 01371 9861 +185 +174 295039 041 033 007 00
120130 2305N 09537W 8434 01364 9863 +180 +176 296041 043 032 009 00
120200 2306N 09536W 8433 01362 9852 +192 +175 300041 041 032 005 00
120230 2307N 09535W 8427 01367 9849 +192 +175 296040 041 033 006 00
120300 2308N 09534W 8432 01357 9846 +190 +176 295040 041 033 006 00
120330 2310N 09532W 8425 01358 9837 +195 +177 294041 041 034 005 00
120400 2311N 09531W 8433 01344 9831 +195 +178 294043 044 034 006 00
120430 2312N 09530W 8429 01343 9826 +192 +179 294045 046 036 007 00
120500 2314N 09529W 8430 01338 9823 +187 +180 295046 047 039 007 00
$$
;

[gotoman38]

[gotoman38]

URNT15 KNHC 301215
AF306 1101A ALEX HDOB 37 20100630
120530 2315N 09527W 8432 01328 9820 +178 +178 294045 047 043 008 00
120600 2316N 09526W 8430 01323 9807 +188 +177 298048 049 042 009 00
120630 2317N 09525W 8428 01316 9796 +191 +175 295051 052 044 012 00
120700 2319N 09524W 8428 01306 9793 +175 +174 295054 055 048 018 03
120730 2320N 09522W 8421 01300 9781 +171 +171 295054 056 051 014 00
120800 2321N 09521W 8439 01270 9759 +191 +172 299055 055 049 009 00
120830 2323N 09520W 8427 01270 9743 +193 +172 297058 060 050 012 00
120900 2324N 09519W 8423 01256 9724 +191 +173 294061 062 053 011 00
120930 2325N 09517W 8429 01231 9703 +195 +174 297061 062 056 009 00
121000 2327N 09516W 8433 01207 9676 +204 +175 298057 059 053 011 00
121030 2328N 09515W 8433 01183 9649 +207 +178 297055 055 050 011 00
121100 2329N 09514W 8428 01161 9620 +207 +183 298051 054 051 008 00
121130 2330N 09513W 8429 01137 9593 +210 +186 292033 041 044 008 03
121200 2332N 09512W 8432 01122 9577 +215 +189 285010 016 006 004 03
121230 2334N 09511W 8430 01119 9571 +217 +194 133005 009 004 005 03
121300 2335N 09510W 8428 01121 9571 +215 +199 134020 025 004 005 00
121330 2336N 09509W 8426 01127 9575 +221 +203 134031 036 025 006 00
121400 2337N 09508W 8434 01126 9586 +212 +206 135047 052 051 009 00
121430 2339N 09507W 8433 01149 9609 +206 +206 135071 077 063 011 03
121500 2340N 09506W 8429 01178 9635 +209 +205 137080 080 062 007 00
$$
;

957.1 mb Winds still minimal

[gotoman38]

[gotoman38]

URNT15 KNHC 301225
AF306 1101A ALEX HDOB 38 20100630
121530 2341N 09504W 8429 01203 9672 +191 +191 140081 081 067 010 00
121600 2342N 09503W 8423 01231 9700 +179 +179 144085 086 067 013 00
121630 2343N 09502W 8435 01237 9720 +184 +184 145087 088 066 010 00
121700 2344N 09501W 8424 01268 9742 +180 +180 146086 087 064 009 00
121730 2345N 09459W 8434 01273 9761 +177 +177 146085 087 062 009 00
121800 2346N 09458W 8426 01295 9773 +187 +180 146085 086 057 009 00
121830 2348N 09457W 8430 01302 9791 +177 +177 148084 085 055 010 00
121900 2349N 09455W 8423 01322 9795 +193 +174 148083 083 054 009 03
121930 2350N 09454W 8430 01322 9805 +191 +172 147080 081 051 005 00
122000 2351N 09453W 8429 01330 9816 +187 +172 147078 079 049 005 00
122030 2352N 09452W 8432 01334 9819 +193 +172 147075 076 047 004 00
122100 2353N 09450W 8429 01344 9824 +198 +174 149072 073 045 004 00
122130 2355N 09449W 8433 01344 9829 +196 +177 148069 069 045 003 00
122200 2356N 09448W 8428 01354 9837 +193 +180 149068 069 044 004 00
122230 2357N 09446W 8429 01356 9843 +189 +184 150067 068 044 004 00
122300 2358N 09445W 8433 01356 9846 +190 +187 148065 066 042 005 00
122330 2359N 09444W 8430 01363 9850 +190 +189 150066 066 042 005 00
122400 2401N 09442W 8429 01369 9856 +190 +190 150066 067 043 004 00
122430 2402N 09441W 8428 01372 9859 +190 +190 151067 067 043 003 00
122500 2403N 09440W 8433 01373 9865 +187 +187 150067 068 042 004 00
$$
;

[brunota2003]

88 * 80% = 70.4

So flight level winds and Smurf confirm Alex is a 70 knot hurricane.

[gotoman38]

[gotoman38]

URNT12 KNHC 301230
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012010
A. 30/12:12:10Z
B. 23 deg 32 min N
095 deg 12 min W
C. 850 mb 1052 m
D. 56 kt
E. 217 deg 8 nm
F. 300 deg 62 kt
G. 217 deg 8 nm
H. 958 mb
I. 20 C / 1525 m
J. 22 C / 1520 m
K. 19 C / NA
L. OPEN NW
M. C9
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 1101A ALEX OB 15
MAX FL WIND 88 KT NE QUAD 12:16:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 88 KT NE QUAD 12:16:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND AND FL WIND 88 KT NE QUAD 12:16:30Z
;

[gotoman38]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 12:30Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2010
Storm Name: Alex (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 11
Observation Number: 15
A. Time of Center Fix: 30th day of the month at 12:12:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°32'N 95°12'W (23.5333N 95.2W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 219 miles (353 km) to the SE (139°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,052m (3,451ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the SW (217°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 300° at 62kts (From the WNW at ~ 71.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the SW (217°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 958mb (28.29 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,520m (4,987ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 19°C (66°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the northwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 9 nautical miles
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 88kts (~ 101.3mph) in the northeast quadrant at 12:16:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 88kts (~ 101.3mph) in the northeast quadrant at 12:16:30Z
Maximum Wind Outbound: 88kts (~ 101.3mph) in the northeast quadrant at 12:16:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 88kts (~ 101.3mph) in the northeast quadrant at 12:16:30Z

[gotoman38]

URNT15 KNHC 301235
AF306 1101A ALEX HDOB 39 20100630
122530 2404N 09438W 8424 01384 9867 +190 +190 150066 067 043 003 00
122600 2406N 09437W 8433 01378 9872 +188 +188 150065 066 044 004 00
122630 2407N 09436W 8433 01380 9876 +183 +183 152067 068 048 006 00
122700 2408N 09434W 8427 01389 9876 +186 +186 155067 068 047 006 00
122730 2409N 09433W 8427 01391 9883 +181 +181 154072 075 053 006 00
122800 2410N 09431W 8429 01389 9891 +171 +171 154075 076 055 014 00
122830 2412N 09430W 8427 01395 9901 +157 +157 157076 081 059 018 01
122900 2413N 09429W 8430 01396 9911 +152 +152 155083 083 056 019 05
122930 2414N 09427W 8430 01399 9914 +150 +150 152084 086 058 016 00
123000 2415N 09426W 8426 01408 9914 +161 +161 150084 086 055 013 03
123030 2416N 09425W 8432 01405 9919 +158 +158 146081 082 057 015 00
123100 2418N 09423W 8425 01414 9925 +154 +154 146080 082 061 023 03
123130 2419N 09422W 8427 01416 9928 +153 +153 145078 081 056 027 03
123200 2420N 09421W 8430 01414 9932 +152 +152 146079 081 054 025 03
123230 2421N 09420W 8426 01422 9933 +155 +155 144073 077 052 018 00
123300 2422N 09418W 8430 01419 9933 +159 +156 147078 079 057 010 00
123330 2423N 09417W 8433 01422 9935 +163 +156 146082 083 057 010 00
123400 2424N 09416W 8429 01428 9936 +164 +156 147084 085 054 013 00
123430 2426N 09414W 8427 01433 9939 +166 +156 148081 082 053 012 00
123500 2427N 09413W 8433 01428 9942 +166 +155 148081 083 055 013 03
$$
;

[gotoman38]

[gotoman38]

88 * 80% = 70.4

So flight level winds and Smurf confirm Alex is a 70 knot hurricane.

88 kt fl and 957 mb? I need some science.

[gotoman38]

URNT15 KNHC 301245
AF306 1101A ALEX HDOB 40 20100630
123530 2428N 09412W 8429 01435 9942 +170 +156 148086 088 055 012 00
123600 2429N 09411W 8430 01436 9946 +169 +156 150086 088 052 010 03
123630 2430N 09409W 8431 01438 9948 +169 +155 150085 085 049 008 00
123700 2431N 09408W 8431 01441 9951 +171 +155 149084 085 050 008 00
123730 2433N 09407W 8429 01445 9947 +178 +156 150077 079 046 009 00
123800 2434N 09405W 8428 01449 9950 +179 +157 151077 078 044 007 00
123830 2435N 09404W 8430 01446 9950 +184 +158 151073 075 045 005 00
123900 2436N 09403W 8430 01450 9953 +182 +160 152074 076 044 007 00
123930 2437N 09401W 8428 01453 9956 +182 +161 154074 075 042 006 00
124000 2439N 09400W 8432 01453 9960 +180 +163 153074 074 043 006 00
124030 2440N 09358W 8429 01458 9961 +180 +164 151073 074 043 007 00
124100 2441N 09357W 8429 01462 9972 +168 +164 151074 075 042 008 00
124130 2442N 09356W 8429 01462 9971 +172 +162 152070 072 041 009 00
124200 2442N 09356W 8429 01462 9971 +176 +160 151069 070 041 006 00
124230 2445N 09353W 8433 01460 9968 +182 +159 153069 070 041 005 00
124300 2446N 09352W 8432 01466 9972 +183 +160 150069 070 041 006 00
124330 2447N 09350W 8428 01472 9977 +176 +162 151067 068 040 006 00
124400 2448N 09349W 8432 01468 9977 +179 +162 148067 067 040 006 00
124430 2450N 09348W 8428 01473 9980 +174 +162 146065 066 043 006 00
124500 2451N 09346W 8430 01472 9983 +173 +162 146066 067 041 005 00
$$
;


Are they climbing for exit? Could be

[gotoman38]

[gotoman38]

URNT15 KNHC 301255
AF306 1101A ALEX HDOB 41 20100630
124530 2452N 09345W 8426 01477 9981 +180 +163 147064 065 037 005 00
124600 2453N 09344W 8430 01475 9979 +185 +166 147068 069 034 006 03
124630 2454N 09342W 8432 01477 9981 +186 +168 147068 069 038 005 00
124700 2455N 09341W 8429 01480 9981 +190 +172 146066 067 040 004 00
124730 2456N 09340W 8429 01479 9983 +187 +176 147066 067 999 999 03
124800 2455N 09339W 8428 01480 9981 +186 +179 147063 064 999 999 03
124830 2454N 09340W 8425 01481 9979 +186 +183 144063 064 038 005 03
124900 2454N 09342W 8432 01475 9980 +186 +186 146062 064 039 006 03
124930 2454N 09344W 8423 01484 9982 +177 +177 149058 060 038 006 03
125000 2454N 09346W 8431 01473 9984 +172 +172 147056 060 038 005 00
125030 2454N 09348W 8430 01471 9984 +170 +170 144060 060 039 004 00
125100 2454N 09350W 8432 01469 9982 +173 +173 145062 063 041 004 00
125130 2454N 09353W 8429 01472 9976 +180 +179 144063 063 043 005 00
125200 2454N 09355W 8432 01466 9972 +181 +177 145063 064 041 005 00
125230 2454N 09357W 8429 01468 9972 +180 +176 143063 064 040 005 03
125300 2454N 09359W 8429 01466 9968 +183 +176 145064 064 040 004 00
125330 2453N 09401W 8432 01461 9967 +180 +177 147066 067 041 005 00
125400 2453N 09403W 8429 01461 9964 +180 +178 146067 069 041 004 00
125430 2453N 09405W 8429 01460 9962 +180 +179 146068 069 041 004 00
125500 2453N 09407W 8432 01455 9963 +178 +178 146066 067 041 006 00
$$
;