ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[KWT]

Yep, that pressure is impressive...

One thing to note though the center looks a little to the east of the deepest of the center...

NE quadrant will be very important to see if this is a hurricane, winds thus far haven't supported it.

[HurricaneStriker]

I'll be surprised if they dont find hurricane winds in this.

[CrazyC83]

FL winds need to be 80 kt to be a hurricane on that basis. An SFMR of 64 kt would also support such. (Neither have happened yet)

[KWT]

Looks like this has a similar pressure-wind relationship as a WPAC season...2005 had a similar thing with several of thier storms FWIW....

[CrazyC83]

Looks like this has a similar pressure-wind relationship as a WPAC season...2005 had a similar thing with several of thier storms FWIW....

It's been that way for at least the last 48 hours as well and probably will be until landfall. Ambient pressures are quite low right now.

I believe if confirmed at 973mb, it will now be the deepest June storm since Alma.

[KWT]

Yeah its very impressive Crazy, even more so given its probably only a low end category-1 still, we've seen category-2 storms with pressures of the same...

Waiting for the NE pass though, can't imagine they won't find hurricane winds...

[RattleMan]

NHC deciding anyway?

AL, 01, 2010063000, , BEST, 0, 230N, 944W, 65, 974, HU, 34, NEQ, 150, 150, 75, 125, 1006, 250, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ALEX, D,
AL, 01, 2010063000, , BEST, 0, 230N, 944W, 65, 974, HU, 50, NEQ, 75, 75, 25, 50, 1006, 250, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ALEX, D,
AL, 01, 2010063000, , BEST, 0, 230N, 944W, 65, 974, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 15, 15, 15, 1006, 250, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ALEX, D,

[cycloneye]

Yes,they are going to pull the trigger.

[KWT]

Ah good spot Rattleman, yeah looks like they may well be upgrading it anyway, esp based of winds in the SE eyewall.

[CrazyC83]

Disagree with the NHC there. Yes the 971-974mb pressure suggests it but there is no wind data yet to support such.

[Annie Oakley]

Hurakan dazzle your audience with some pics while we recon-watch lol.

[HurricaneStriker]

Seems that they are going to upgrade it then?

[KWT]

Disagree with the NHC there. Yes the 971-974mb pressure suggests it but there is no wind data yet to support such.

I'm guessing given there were some 55-60kts surface winds in the SE quadrant (though they did have heavy rainrates) they are probably expecting it to have hurricane force winds in that NE quadrant. Makes sense really...

[SunnyThoughts]

[CrazyC83]

Dropsonde in a calm eye confirms a 973mb pressure.

[vacanechaser]

james franklin just said on twc that he expects an upgrade once the plane goes through the ne quad... said winds were close on the last pass... so i would expect it to happen soon...




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Air Force Met]

Disagree with the NHC there. Yes the 971-974mb pressure suggests it but there is no wind data yet to support such.

You've got 62 kts SFMR in the SE quad....and a pressure of 973 mb. Its a good bet that you could find 3 more kts of wind in the NE or N quad. Its a good call.

Just because you don't find that exact spot where there is 64 kts (especially when you haven't been to the strongest part of the storm yet)...doesn't mean you shouldn't upgrade.

3 kts is all we are talking.

[KWT]

That presentation really is improving, now finally looking like a proper hurricane with deeper convection finally filling in the dry air slots that have been present recently...though not totally just yet.

Next question is do we see an eye soon?

[Ivanhater]

I wonder if the forecast for below average pressures across the entire ATL basin is the reason we will see this different pressure to wind ratio not just for Alex, but the season as a whole...

[ozonepete]

Looks like it's got hurricane stats, but I'm getting doubtful of any considerable intensification anymore. Look at this structure. What a mess!