ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[KWT]

Right everyone recon is about to take pass through the NW quadrant so we are about to get a pretty big clue as to what strength this system really is right now...though we won't know the real strength till recon is in the NE quad.

[thetruesms]

It actually looks more like a storm trying to become extratropical...

What it actually looks like is one of those deep wintertime "pinwheel" type occluded lows that you often see in the north Atlantic. Of course, what it really is, IMO, is an artifact of dry air intrusion, particularly at outflow level. That's why you don't see a dense cirro-stratus canopy from the convection. If you look closely, the CS from the TS tops has tended to dissipate fairly rapidly, compared to normal. I think this may be an artifact of some dry U/L leftover from the base of the upper trough that was there a day or two ago.

It's not unlike what you would see if you were to slice off the top 50MB of most bordeline TS/cat 1 hurricanes.

Indeed, it's been fascinating to watch factors encouraging and discouraging the storm's development. It seems like so often one kind of dominates over the other most of the time, but Alex seems to go back and forth fairly evenly. Now that I've had a chance to step away from the computer to go home from work, it's been surging forward - further proof that the interesting things happen when I'm not watching it

[NEXRAD]

Interesting - the TPC/NHC is holding Alex at 60KT intensity for the 7PM CDT. It seems that the experts there are awaiting the aircraft's reaching the storm center before upgrading the system. If I were a pro at the NHC, I'd do the same.

- Jay
South Florida

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 94.5W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM E OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES

[lebron23]

moved due west from 4CT to 7CT

[HurricaneStriker]

Alex is beautiful! And if you get a chance-check out the recon thread for great visuals as well. Wow.

Yep. True. Alex is very likely a hurricane now. To me, Alex looks like...1995 Hurricane Opal?

Alex



vs.

Opal

[KWT]

Yep bending back cycloneye, wouldn't shock me to see a couple of WSW jogs before landfall as well for that matter...

Jay, quite agree there isn't much point of upgrading till we know for sure one way or the other...

Tomorrow going to be a big day for some folks in N.Mexico, a 75-85kts hurricane should not be under-estimated!

[lebron23]

Yep bending back cycloneye, wouldn't shock me to see a couple of WSW jogs before landfall as well for that matter...

Jay, quite agree there isn't much point of upgrading till we know for sure one way or the other...

Tomorrow going to be a big day for some folks in N.Mexico, a 75-85kts hurricane should not be under-estimated!

you think it may even hit central mexico

[Thunder44]

TWC says they just talked with NHC and there will be a special update before 11pm advisory, if recon finds a hurricane.

[lebron23]

TWC says they just talked with NHC and there will be a special update before 11pm advisory, if recon finds a hurricane.

exactly what i thought

[Ptarmigan]

Yep. True. Alex is very likely a hurricane now. To me, Alex looks like...1995 Hurricane Opal?

Alex does look like Opal, except Opal underwent explosive deepening.

[KWT]

Oh yeah no doubts about the fact they will likely have to make a special advisory, though the NW-SE pass may not quite find high enough winds just yet so may take another pass through the center and wait for it to hit the NE quadrant...still we shall see!

[HurricaneStriker]

Hurricane Hunter found minimum pressure of 984.7mb, according to Wunderground's very own Hurricane Hunter tool.

[ozonepete]

I think the Diana image is quite similar to what Alex looks like now.

Could well be as high as 80mph right now IMO, the system is filling out nicely just as the sun comes down, probably next Vis.imagery we will have a weak eye present IMO.

You can see the system has lifted up enough for the inflow to not get too severely disrupted by the Yucatan.

Yeah. Land influence is as low as it will get for the next few hours.

IMHO, as others have said here, this one had a large windfield before it developed a strong core. That kept a lot of the wind energy spread out to far to allow this to intensify more. Although right now it's not looking too bad, it still has a lot of energy spread far from the center.

[KWT]

Yep. True. Alex is very likely a hurricane now. To me, Alex looks like...1995 Hurricane Opal?

Alex does look like Opal, except Opal underwent explosive deepening.

Well thats the thing, how do we know Alex isn't about to attempt a brief RI phase once the eye has sorte ditself out in the next 3-6hrs, may not have time to do much but we know what bursting storms are like.

HS, recon hasn't gone through the center yet, got another 15-20 mins yet to go probably.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Look at the band on the East side of the storm! Wow, Heavy band there.

[HurricaneStriker]

So the confirmed pressure is 980Mb, am I correct? Sheesh. That's a pretty low pressure considering this storm's a tropical storm. 980Mb is usually associated with high end Category 1s and low end cat 2s.

[KWT]

Nothing is confirmed yet, recon still hasn't got there yet 980 is an educated guess I believe from the NHC.

Come back in 10-20 mins and we'll know what the pressure is, recon is lining up for a NW-SE pass from the looks of things.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

So the confirmed pressure is 980Mb, am I correct? Sheesh. That's a pretty low pressure considering this storm's a tropical storm. 980Mb is usually associated with high end Category 1s and low end cat 2s.

We have no idea what the pressure is because they haven't reached the center yet!

[HurricaneStriker]

So the confirmed pressure is 980Mb, am I correct? Sheesh. That's a pretty low pressure considering this storm's a tropical storm. 980Mb is usually associated with high end Category 1s and low end cat 2s.

We have no idea what the pressure is because they haven't reached the center yet!

I know. Cool down people. Just saying the 'old' estimate. I know they haven't found the new one yet.