ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[txagwxman]

Hurricane Allen 1980.

[txagwxman]

[lrak]

Wow I remember Allen, Corpus had lots of tornadoes and flooding. I think we had one gust to hurricane strength and Allen hit Mexico, whoops.

[alanstover]

From the east pacific images and loops I´ve been watching since last evening, it looks like Alex has managed to pull the remains of Darby into its system and they are presently coming up across southern Mexico and western Guatemala. Anyone else notice... am I right about that? If so, maybe that explains why we´re having heavier rain again this pm after seeing some clearing in the AM here in western Guat.

[alan1961]

New convection is firing all around Alex's core convection. The leading edge of moist, tropical air is surging W and NW ahead of the system and new convective activity is persistently firing behind this leading edge. I suspect Alex's dry air problems may be quickly diminishing. The storm seems to have a very well-defined center and core on visible imagery.

- Jay
South Florida

Will be interesting to see if it continues as it heads towards Mexico and its circulation brings ever more dry air into the circulation though, may well have a small window where with its better structure it can make the most of it, but I'd have to think it'd level off to a point.

Still think its going to be a close run thing as to whether this gets to category-2, the presnetation is better, just needs filling out a bit. Probably got about 18-21hrs or so left.

I'd put it less than 18 hours for landfall KWT..more like 12-15, it looks on a wnw track and nhc may well bring the trop points
down a touch too

[SunnyThoughts]

So what do you guys think? Will Recon find that Alex has become a hurricane..finally? I think so imo. I'll say 976mb 80mph surface

[wxman57]

Yeah, it's a hurricane. As for the track post-landfall, it looks west or south of west into the mountains of MX. Not a core rainfall event for TX.

[Thunder44]

So what do you guys think? Will Recon find that Alex has become a hurricane..finally? I think so imo. I'll say 976mb 80mph surface

I'll be suprised if they don't find 75mph to 80mph hurricane.

[KWT]

Looks like the center is filling out with convection a little bit, probably will see faster strengthening from now till just before landfall, esp if the inner core really takes advantage of the decent conditions aloft and no more dry air tries to work its way in...

[KWT]

So what do you guys think? Will Recon find that Alex has become a hurricane..finally? I think so imo. I'll say 976mb 80mph surface

I'll be suprised if they don't find 75mph to 80mph hurricane.

Oh without a doubt this probably has hurricane winds, it'd be very surprising if it didn't have 65kt winds right now.

[mpic]

What do the outer bands of Alex mean regarding picking up oil out of the eastern gulf and bringing it to the Texas gulf coast?

[HurricaneBill]

Hurricane Allen 1980.

Hurricane Diana 1990

[HurricaneBill]

Hurricane Gilbert 1988

[ozonepete]

Here comes the eye now...

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Hurricane Gilbert 1988

This bad boy took my grandmothers roof off of her house in Jamaica. Called my mother as it was ripping off. Freaked my mom out. She made it out with no injuries when other family members in the hills came over in the middle of the eye and scooped her up.

One of the events that made me very interested in the weather when i was a child. I dont think Alex will make it to that strength

[TheBurn]

Ahhh... Gilbert '88... surfed amazing waves for a day and a half in Sanibel and Captiva Islands.
Oops... of course it sux about those who took the brunt of it.

[KWT]

I think the Diana image is quite similar to what Alex looks like now.

Could well be as high as 80mph right now IMO, the system is filling out nicely just as the sun comes down, probably next Vis.imagery we will have a weak eye present IMO.

You can see the system has lifted up enough for the inflow to not get too severely disrupted by the Yucatan.

[lebron23]

anyone else see a due west movement?

[neospaceblue]

They just talked to Franklin on The Weather Channel. He said that they'll likely keep it as a TS at 8 PM since the plane hasn't reached the center yet.

IMO, I think that Alex has been a hurricane for a few hours now.

[Annie Oakley]

Alex is beautiful! And if you get a chance-check out the recon thread for great visuals as well. Wow.