ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - RECON DISCUSSION

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#221 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jun 29, 2010 10:29 am

Need an 80 kt FL wind to support a hurricane on that basis.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - RECON DISCUSSION

#222 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 29, 2010 10:38 am

Not too impressed so far with the winds at NE Quad.
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#223 Postby KWT » Tue Jun 29, 2010 10:39 am

Not even close to 80kts, still only around 60-65kts at FL, that being said the strongest winds in the NW quad were same way out from the center so we still need to watch the next set in case we see higher winds out there...
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - RECON DISCUSSION

#224 Postby americanre1 » Tue Jun 29, 2010 10:58 am

Why isn't recon going through the northern portion of the storm???
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#225 Postby Dave » Tue Jun 29, 2010 11:27 am

Ok going to need someone to pickup the hdobs & graphics at 1 pm edt. Have to leave for a few hours. thanks
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#226 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jun 29, 2010 11:28 am

Dave wrote:Ok going to need someone to pickup the hdobs & graphics at 1 pm edt. Have to leave for a few hours. thanks


I will be available
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - RECON DISCUSSION

#227 Postby tolakram » Tue Jun 29, 2010 11:35 am

Winds staying relatively strong north of the center.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - RECON DISCUSSION

#228 Postby americanre1 » Tue Jun 29, 2010 11:37 am

If I'm reading the numbers correct, are they reading tropical storm force winds that far out right now?
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#229 Postby Dave » Tue Jun 29, 2010 11:38 am

Thanks Hurakan, got a meeting at 2 pm, no way can stay on. Will be back late tonight again.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - RECON DISCUSSION

#230 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 29, 2010 11:43 am

tolakram wrote:Winds staying relatively strong north of the center.


The windfield is expanding.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - RECON DISCUSSION

#231 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 29, 2010 12:28 pm

981.3 mbs the lowest pressure at this pass.
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#232 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jun 29, 2010 12:44 pm

Based on the dropsonde, the pressure is probably 980mb as there was 12 kt of wind in the surface drop. Typically that translates into a 75-80 kt storm.

An intensity of 55 kt (which is what the data supports right now) normally supports a pressure around 994mb.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - RECON DISCUSSION

#233 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 29, 2010 1:22 pm

The next mission will depart from Biloxi base around 6:20 PM EDT.

30/0000,0300,0600Z
B. AFXXX 1001A ALEX
C. 29/2200Z
D. 23.5N 94.2W
E. 29/2330Z TO 30/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
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#234 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jun 29, 2010 2:13 pm

Any NOAA plane missions planned?
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - RECON DISCUSSION

#235 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 29, 2010 2:14 pm

The gulfstream jet is flying now dropping Dropsondes.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - RECON DISCUSSION

#236 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 29, 2010 3:57 pm

IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE NEXT AIRCRAFT MISSION NEAR 0000 UTC WILL
FIND THAT ALEX IS A HURRICANE.

Lets see if they find the winds first.
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#237 Postby KWT » Tue Jun 29, 2010 4:53 pm

The fact the NHC think it will reach hurricane strength and recon wil lfind hurricane winds is very interesting indeed.

What time is it due to arrive at?
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#238 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jun 29, 2010 4:54 pm

KWT wrote:The fact the NHC think it will reach hurricane strength and recon wil lfind hurricane winds is very interesting indeed.

What time is it due to arrive at?


Just before 7 pm CDT I believe. About 2 hours.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - RECON DISCUSSION

#239 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 29, 2010 5:07 pm

Plane has just departed.
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#240 Postby KWT » Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:09 pm

Ah ok thanks for that, so we will probably know within the hour whether we have a hurricane...
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