ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[clfenwi]

12Z operational GFS is a good bit more south than the 00Z run:

[clfenwi]

12Z NOGAPS ever so slightly north of its 00Z forecast

[StormClouds63]

Nothing against Kenedy County, but since it has such a small population let's hope the worst of the wind and rain will occur there. Bret (1999) was a much stronger storm, but made landfall in this sparsely-populated county and spared Brownsville and Corpus. Alex, however, may not cooperate and his landfall likely much farther south. Also, Bret was much smaller system. Alex is a much larger circulation, and torrential rainfall appears to be its greatest potential danger.

[clfenwi]

12Z Canadian has about the same landfall spot forecast as the 00Z with ever so slightly slower timing.

[clfenwi]

18Z HWRF is just a tick north of the 12Z. Shows a bit of intensification in the final hours before landfall.



http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/hwrf/alex01l.2010062912/alex01l.2010062912_anim.html

(edited to add link to site)

[southerngale]

I do not understand people getting defensive about a particular model. I understand favoring one over the other. I understand giving more weight to the ones that you think, or the forecasters think, are more reliable. I understand that some are generally crappier and forecasters rely less on them... and people sometimes poke fun at them. I do not understand getting snippy with others and actually getting defensive about a weather model, as if its your offspring or something. It is incomprehensible to me. To each his own, I suppose.

[clfenwi]

12Z GFDL very similar to the 06Z. Like the HWRF, it shows a bit of an intensification run right before landfall.



http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/gfdl/alex01l.2010062912/alex01l.2010062912_anim.html

[txagwxman]

I think the reason why, is because so many people post models out there that shouldn't be even posted. Over the long haul my model choices are:

1) ECMWF
2) UKMET
3) GFS/GFDL
4) HWRF--but new version maybe a little better.
...GEM, NOGAPS

This may vary for each season...but I think the new upgrade on the ECMWF last spring is proving worthwhile. New GFS should be better when it comes out in July.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I agree!

[South Texas Storms]

so is there no chance now of alex making landfall near corpus?

[Tireman4]

Agreed

[clfenwi]

12Z UKMET shifted slightly to the south compared to 00Z

WTNT80 EGRR 291800


MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC
AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 29.06.2010

TROPICAL STORM ALEX ANALYSED POSITION : 22.2N 92.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL012010

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.06.2010 22.2N 92.4W MODERATE
00UTC 30.06.2010 23.6N 94.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.06.2010 23.6N 96.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.07.2010 24.9N 97.9W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 01.07.2010 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT

[TwisterFanatic]

I don't see why some models are shifting south when it appears that Alex is making another jog north.

[tolakram]

I don't see why some models are shifting south when it appears that Alex is making another jog north.

Look at the recon center fixes and stop using satellite when a plane is in the system. Alex is actually turning more west. What you are most likely seeing in the sat pics is the center clouds getting better aligned with the center as the shear relaxes. This gives the false appearance of movement.

From the recon thread:

[KFDM Meteorologist]

12 Z EURO has landfall south of Brownsville!

[Wx_Warrior]

models have (again) zeroed in now on an area....hope preps are being made by friends in corpus, et al

[dixiebreeze]

29/1745 UTC 23.0N 93.6W T4.0/4.0 ALEX -- Atlantic

[Thunder44]

There were several EURO runs last week that had Alex to be slaming into the North Central Gulf coast as a Major. While the GFS was burying Alex to be in the Yucatan. So techincally the EURO jumped from Mexico to Pensecola. But once it settled in it was pretty consistant. By far, not a big victory for this model.

Those Euro runs were always in some doubt because they were inconsistent with previous runs and the Euro Ensemble Mean always showed a track towards the Western Gulf Coast.

[Big O]

12 Z EURO has landfall south of Brownsville!

How many miles south of BRO?

[Wx_Warrior]

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