ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[Texas Snowman]

experimental GFDL given to Jeff Masters showed an area between CC and Galveston..that was earlier this morning though..FWIW...

.....HWRF shifted north...0z models going to be VERY interesting...

Food for thought?

[Yankeegirl]

Some rain would be nice.... still not sold on the path of Alex though.... not sure where its going to go, but somewhere is goin to get alot of rain!!

[Nederlander]

experimental GFDL given to Jeff Masters showed an area between CC and Galveston..that was earlier this morning though..FWIW...

.....HWRF shifted north...0z models going to be VERY interesting...

Food for thought?

You will never hear me say 'for sure' or 'guaranteed', but I doubt Alex will be able to stay on a northward drift to the TX/LA border.. steering currents will kick in once the high builds in from the NW and meets the Atlantic ridge.. at that point, Alex will have to give in.. unless we have a surprise ULL or Alex decides to stay pretty stationary, then we are looking at a storm from Central TX coast southward..


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TwisterFanatic]

This thing is just getting more complicated by the hour.

[Dean4Storms]

experimental GFDL given to Jeff Masters showed an area between CC and Galveston..that was earlier this morning though..FWIW...

.....HWRF shifted north...0z models going to be VERY interesting...

Food for thought?

You will never hear me say 'for sure' or 'guaranteed', but I doubt Alex will be able to stay on a northward drift to the TX/LA border.. steering currents will kick in once the high builds in from the NW and meets the Atlantic ridge.. at that point, Alex will have to give in.. unless we have a surprise ULL or Alex decides to stay pretty stationary, then we are looking at a storm from Central TX coast southward..


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Providing the ridge from the NW does as it is suppose to and slides southward instead of more eastward.

[Texas Snowman]

True, but what happens if Alex intensifies more than currently thought?

What effect would that have on his adherence/resistance to established steering currents?

[jasons2k]

Guys, please edit out images when replying - thanks!

[Dean4Storms]

I'm sticking by the Extrapolation model, it may not have gotten the intensity down as well as the other models but it nailed the landfall much closer than all the rest!!!!

No statistical analysis shows it was the LBAR that was most accurate

My Extrapolation beat your LBAR by at least a nose hair!

[timNms]

Question for AFM or anyone with some expertise.
We've got a front moving in and an ULL over MS/LA. I'm assuming the ULL is going to continue to move eastward and get outta the way. However, what's going to happen with the front. Is it going to wash out (or retreat back as a warm front) and allow Alex to turn west?
Local NWS here is saying the front is going to stall out around the I 20 corridor in MS and hang out for a few days.
Correct me if I'm wrong here, but don't fronts tend to steer tropical systems? I don't recall ever hearing of a tropical system crossing a front. If the front doesn't wash out or retreat to the north, what happens to Alex and his track? I also have read that a high is supposed to be building in to the north, but in order for that to happen and it have an effect on Alex's path, wouldn't the front have to be out of the way?

[TexasF6]

Flash Flood Watch for Austin TX....Unexpected today......I'm just saying!!!

[ROCK]

JB update I snatched from another site......paraphrase so its not against the law?

Bastardi 8pm update. says alex at risk for rapid intensication..also says the slower it moves the more the risk for the more northern move....so corpus beyond keep your head in the game ...cat 3-4 not impossible...

hope I didnt break any rules of engagement...

[ROCK]

stationary...moving about 2mph to the north...that stuck in my book...another stall...

[Nederlander]

JB update I snatched from another site......paraphrase so its not against the law?

Bastardi 8pm update. says alex at risk for rapid intensication..also says the slower it moves the more the risk for the more northern move....so corpus beyond keep your head in the game ...cat 3-4 not impossible...

hope I didnt break any rules of engagement...

Thanks Rock... I do think if Alex is going to make it to Mexico, he is going to need to show signs of turning pretty quickly.. the last NHC track showed a pretty steep bend to the west from its current location at the time.. since, all Alex has done is drift N and even NNE..

[Ivanhater]

stationary...moving about 2mph to the north...that stuck in my book...another stall...

I'm glad things got cleared up today Rock

[deltadog03]

BTW, the 00z NAM is on crack...trying to jump out the energy....no bueno NAMO....BTw...looks a little NE of the other VDM fix.

[Wx_Warrior]

Bored in Casper? LOL

NAM 54h

[deltadog03]

Ya my weather SUX right now...lol I still think the NAM is off the rocker with the movement. Its going to have move almost due west in the short term to move along with the NAM's track.

[Wx_Warrior]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 290242
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
1000 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

...ALEX GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 91.6W
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF
BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM THE
MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.6 WEST. ALEX IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST...AND ALEX IS LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH
TUESDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS ON
WEDNESDAY...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE
SURGE COULD PENETRATE AS FAR INLAND AS SEVERAL MILES FROM THE SHORE
WITH DEPTH GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE WATER MOVES INLAND. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.



NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

[Ikester]

Update is out at the station...

Moving NORTH at 5...winds 65 mph and the cone has shifted east...I'll update again soon.

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Well catching up on the posts today you would think this thing could start doing back-flips in the GOM and go anywhere it wanted to!

Okay -- I do admit the forecast track is not as straightforward as some systems as models are flip-flopping some and it has stalled, but the forecast the entire time from the time this thing was a system was Northern Mexico or Southern Texas. When I look at the models, isn't that what they are still showing several days later? Yeah so there are likely some minor adjustments to the NHC cone left or right but don't look for a major shift that takes it SE Texas or LA.

I really think we are still talking landfall somewhere around Brownsville + or - about 150 miles or so. I really don't see it deviating alot from that at this point. That said, hurricane by tomorrow, though.