ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[ROCK]

can we rerain from EURO wars until after landfall......sheesh...I am a EURO hugger but I am not tooting its horn.....

[Big O]

What I'd like to know if anyone has access to the European 12 hour increment forecast points. If so, what is Alex's location at hour 60 (between 48h and 72h)?

[txagwxman]

Euro is a total fail. Was trying to drive Alex almost due west from the get go. There is no way it deserves an accuracy prize if Alex comes in around Brownsville. Instead Euro eats crow and gets a fail lame "you are a loser model" award. It also gets laughed at by a parade of 1,000 clowns.

ECMWF was the first model to detect a system forming in the Caribbean over 10 days ago. The other models had NADA. ECMWF isn't the best model at everything, but it is a damn good model in the tropics.

[KWT]

EURO is just about always the most consistant! No different with Alex either.

I'm not sure if you look back the ECM has been any more consistant on whats its predicted, and to be fair as much as the GFS/CMC have come southwards, I'd argue the ECM has come up just as much northwards...they've met more or less in the middle for once.

[txagwxman]

What I'd like to know if anyone has access to the European 12 hour increment forecast points. If so, what is Alex's location at hour 60 (between 48h and 72h)?

South of Brownsville.

[Nederlander]

can we rerain from EURO wars until after landfall......sheesh...I am a EURO hugger but I am not tooting its horn.....

Yeah Ill refrain.. plenty of time to do that after.. Alex is going to need to start moving NW over the next 12 hours.. almost due north right now..

[Raider Power]

Quite a dive south for GFS and GFDL at the 2 PM EDT.

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow, models have shifted quite a bit south now of the border... Perhaps Mexico it is.....

[Portastorm]

Wow, models have shifted quite a bit south now of the border... Perhaps Mexico it is.....

No doubt due to its lethargic movement and the prospect of a re-building ridge of high pressure over the northwestern Gulf.

[ConvergenceZone]

So the stalling might be a good thing for the USA afterall. Perhaps it's kind realizing that the oil spill is all we can handle at the moment...

[Big O]

What I'd like to know if anyone has access to the European 12 hour increment forecast points. If so, what is Alex's location at hour 60 (between 48h and 72h)?

South of Brownsville.

How far south of Brownsville?

[KWT]

Wow, models have shifted quite a bit south now of the border... Perhaps Mexico it is.....

Yeah the models are keen on a landfall a little south of Meixoc-Texas border giving the slower motion, as I've stated my only uncertainty is the system takes so long to get across that it could lift up again a little before landfall, the GFDL 12z for example does lift up somewhat after landfall.

[ConvergenceZone]

What I'd like to know if anyone has access to the European 12 hour increment forecast points. If so, what is Alex's location at hour 60 (between 48h and 72h)?

South of Brownsville.

How far south of Brownsville?

It was a pretty big shift south: (scroll to the middle of the page

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

[Ivanhater]

Looks like the Euro may score a win if these trends hold.

If Brownsville verifies, this is hardly a victory for the Euro

uh? ECMWF has been the farthest south of all models since the beginning...GFS / GFS ensembles / GEM were all over the place... If it is Brownsville, then it is a score on the ECMWF.

If If If the euro track verifies, it got it right for all the wrong reasons...it did NOT see the breakdown in the ridge with the progressive trough we are seeing now....when did it having moving due north like we are seeing now...never...the gfs and cmc sure did...only reason models are shifting south now is because of the stall that none of the models saw...including the euro...AFMET summed that up quite well when he said it has an open door to the upper Texas coast

[cycloneye]

Something important that the models will get is the data from the gulfstream jet that is flying this afternoon to sample the upper atmosphere.That data is incorporated to the 00z package.

[KWT]

Yeah I wonder what if any effect that will have on the models and Alex's track.

Also Ivanhater is right, the ECM will be right for all the wrong reasons...besides it wasn't immune to being way out either at times, but it is quite close though on quite a few of the runs.

[txagwxman]

There are several ECMWF ensemble membes with a hurricane near Corpus...but that is the farthest north I see, most of the clustering is around Brownsville.

[brunota2003]

Wait until the G-IV flight tonight...I think we'll see the models really come together, and it might not be south of the border (then again...it might be).

[ronjon]

Look at what the 12Z GFDL does in the eastern GOM at the end of its run - possible home grown action?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2010062812-alex01l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[lester]

18z NAM has Alex making landfall around BRO at 54 fwiw