ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[HouTXmetro]

I don't know how much stock to put in this but I was just watching thethe National Good Morning America on ABC and the forecaster said he expects the the forecast to shift north.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I share your concern Hou...

You just can't "trust" any slow moving system in the gulf. They have been known to do some really wacky things...loops, etc. And the storms seem to defy the laws when they are moving at <6kts. I can't count how many times the models weren't just off...but WAY off...when having to deal with a slow moving gulf storm.

The approaching front could well influence the storm to the north and northeast if the forward speed is reduced or the storm takes to "meandering" with weak currents. That means more time over the gulf to get stronger, and, a stronger storm will be more likely to take a more northerly route and be even more influenced by the approaching front.

I'm not sold on the Mexico/TX border landfall at all. I think it will be furhter up the TX coast and may even be a LA storm.

If it significantly slows down, say 14 hours of "drifting", we could see this really making a run (a slow jog actually) for the oil spill area. Any speed up would be courtesy of the front's steering influence.

-Just my opinion.

(The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)

[sphelps8681]

I have to agree as well. One question I had was would a hurricane be more compelled to move toward the north feeling a weakness in the ridge. Seems like it might.

[txagwxman]

00z GEM from yesterday is already off by 150 miles (too far NW), so was the 00z GFS and the 00Z ECMWF...You can't trust the models, but use them u must.

[dixiebreeze]

I share your concern Hou...

You just can't "trust" any slow moving system in the gulf. They have been known to do some really wacky things...loops, etc. And the storms seem to defy the laws when they are moving at <6kts. I can't count how many times the models weren't just off...but WAY off...when having to deal with a slow moving gulf storm.

The approaching front could well influence the storm to the north and northeast if the forward speed is reduced or the storm takes to "meandering" with weak currents. That means more time over the gulf to get stronger, and, a stronger storm will be more likely to take a more northerly route and be even more influenced by the approaching front.

I'm not sold on the Mexico/TX border landfall at all. I think it will be furhter up the TX coast and may even be a LA storm.

If it significantly slows down, say 14 hours of "drifting", we could see this really making a run (a slow jog actually) for the oil spill area. Any speed up would be courtesy of the front's steering influence.

-Just my opinion.

(The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)

Well stated and I agree, TIFG

[Big O]

Are there supposed to be new lead times on watches/warnings? When would watches go up? This evening?

[Sambucol]

I don't know how much stock to put in this but I was just watching thethe National Good Morning America on ABC and the forecaster said he expects the the forecast to shift north.

Ch 26 met this morning (I think his name is Mike but didn't catch the last name) said we should get our supplies today because it's going to be a very busy week this week. Also talked about models showing a more northerly track. I got the feeling he was not sold on the southerly tracks. But he stressed for viewers to their "supplies" taken care of today. He expects the storm to possibly be a cat 3 hurricane at landfall.

[barometerJane61]

Local (Dallas)NBC tv met earlier posted new model run that showed majority of TX coast in the cone.Looks like TX will bare the brunt of hurricane Alex

[ROCK]

Its not going anymore north that matagorda Bay and that is stretching it....the MET is looking for ratings....CMC model swung north then settled back down south and it was the best in 2009......it would be unheard of to see any model progress futher north at this point....we are getting into the 96hr range where most models are pretty good....

just my 2 cents

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[txagwxman]

That ain't no lie...no need to panic in Houston yet.

[Normandy]

Its not going anymore north that matagorda Bay and that is stretching it....the MET is looking for ratings....CMC model swung north then settled back down south and it was the best in 2009......it would be unheard of to see any model progress futher north at this point....we are getting into the 96hr range where most models are pretty good....

just my 2 cents

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I agree, but the right turn after landfall is interesting. It could get pretty hairy if Alex's timing is a little slower and that turn begins before the final approach to the Texas coast.

[HouTXmetro]

Its not going anymore north that matagorda Bay and that is stretching it....the MET is looking for ratings....CMC model swung north then settled back down south and it was the best in 2009......it would be unheard of to see any model progress futher north at this point....we are getting into the 96hr range where most models are pretty good....

just my 2 cents

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I agree, but the right turn after landfall is interesting. It could get pretty hairy if Alex's timing is a little slower and that turn begins before the final approach to the Texas coast.

That's what I'm saying....perhaps all the models showing a right turn are trash but I'm taking notice...Alex is moving slower than forecast and if that turn happens before landfall that pushes Alex further north. That's all we are saying...either way we will get some heavy rain and squally weather.

[Tireman4]

Ch 26 met this morning (I think his name is Mike but didn't catch the last name) said we should get our supplies today because it's going to be a very busy week this week. Also talked about models showing a more northerly track. I got the feeling he was not sold on the southerly tracks. But he stressed for viewers to their "supplies" taken care of today. He expects the storm to possibly be a cat 3 hurricane at landfall.[/quote]


Fox 26 Meteorologist Mike Iscovitz

[Comanche]

question for any promets, because this sits farther south of where it had been forecasted earlier, will this likely miss the window of the northern tracks as the ridge builds back? In other words, is the timing window closing on the frontal effects?

[wxman22]

Even if Alex hits the middle Texas Coast looking at the size it still would bring Tropical Storm force winds and heavy rains to the Houston area.

[wxgirl69]

When will see new model data?

[Comanche]

GFS nooner about to run (maybe already)

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.stormpulse.com/atlantic

I think today will be telling....with MOST computer models now showing landfall mainly between Brownsville up to (to the upper middle TX coast) Matagorday Bay on Northern/NNE heading. But To be fair, the Global and Reliable EURO, NOGAPS, and GFDL still showing West/WNW bound at and after landfall.

[TexasF6]

The entire Texas coastline is in play with this slow movement....everyone should at least be getting preparations made....preparedness not panic I say...my personal thoughts are landfall as a large Cat 4 between Corpus and Galeveston....

This statement has not been endorsed by any meteorological service and is simply my opinion!!!

[ROCK]

The entire Texas coastline is in play with this slow movement....everyone should at least be getting preparations made....preparedness not panic I say...my personal thoughts are landfall as a large Cat 4 between Corpus and Galeveston....

This statement has not been endorsed by any meteorological service and is simply my opinion!!!

a 4? that is pretty high prediction....