ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[Wx_Warrior]

LOL...come on ivan....go to bed.

[Ivanhater]

LOL...come on ivan....go to bed.

Best advice I've heard all day...it's gonna be a looong season

[vaffie]

Okay so more then a "little bit" but nothing Massive.

It makes a huge difference though. Keep in mind that the only reason why the cone is still pointing at Mexico was because of the Euro being the southerly most model... It moving to the Texas/Mexico border makes all of the other models much more believable. If the Euro were to move up even 30 miles every run, by the time Alex made landfall it would be in SW Louisiana! This is a big shift. By the 12Z runs tomorrow, they could all be pointed towards SE Texas at this rate. We have seen this scenario so many times. Katrina, Ike, Humberto, the list goes on for ever--the models all pointed at Corpus Christi at first, but the storm tracks kept shifting eastward until they all made landfall east of Galveston. One just cannot discount all that history. I can't even remember a time when the track into the Texas coast was south of what the computer models predicted--almost always it's north/east of them at the end of the day. Not good...not good. For me to hope that it doesn't hit Houston, I would want the forecast tracks to be pointing right at Houston by now, because anything left of it might very well end up right here...

[Big O]

In addition, I see nothing to prevent Alex from becoming a high end Category 2 hurricane, and possibly a Category 3 hurricane during its trek across the GOM.

With respect to the European's west bias, the European was consistely showing landfall for Dolly just south of Brownsville, and the storm actually came in north of Brownsville by about 25-50 miles. While this may not seem like a significant departure from the model output, given the 0z positioning of landfall depicted in the European, Brownsville could be in the NE quadrant of Alex IF this model solution verifies.

Another thing to note is whether the west bend, which virtually all models are now showing is gradual (i.e., NW then WNW then W) or abrupt. I don't buy a system turning on a dime. Doesn't anyone know the trajectory of Alex when it makes landfall south of Brownsville as depicted in the European? In other words, is it moving NW, WNW, W, WSW, or SW?

[Time_Zone]

Interesting. I'm a pretty big noob here but i'm trying to learn so try not to be to harsh on me.

[vaffie]

Interesting. I'm a pretty big noob here but i'm trying to learn so try not to be to harsh on me.

We all are. It's not personal. I'm just expounding on it. I've always liked the Euro--I think it is probably the best model but I've learned that if you want to be accurate on a 5 day forecast you have to always take the Euro and add 150 miles to the east or north to get the most accurate forecast. When they make these analyses of model performances, they should really do not only how many miles off the forecast was but in which direction. It would become very obvious immediately that the Euro is on average 120 miles off on a westward bias and the GFS is 120 miles off on an eastern bias usually.

[Nederlander]

Even if the landfall verifies to be between BR and CC, I think it would be far from a victory for the Euro.. I am becoming less of a fan of the euro after Alex.. I know that the euro runs independently of the cmc and gfs, but its almost like the euro was like 'hmm the gfs and cmc dont like it this far south, so ill slowly nudge north until they are satisfied'.. at any rate, if im not mistaken, a couple of days ago the NAM was gunning for the area between BR and CC.. what if the NAM wins? ... personally I think the latest CMC might verify..

[somethingfunny]

Weren't alot of the models showing two low pressure centers in the Gulf of Mexico? Alex, and then another system south of Louisiana.

We tossed them aside as garbage runs, but it seems like this ULL is EXACTLY what the models were seeing. Now to dig up those old runs out of the trash and see where the ULL goes.

[KWT]

The GFDL takes it near to the north in the next few hours and that may not be a bad call given whats going on at the moment under weak steering conditions.

GFDL and HWRF still aren't going that high in terms of strength which is a little surprising but we shall see...

[cycloneye]

4 PM CDT part of discussion related to the models. Official track was shifted to the north.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/05 BASED ON RECON FIX DATA.
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S.
AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN FACT...THE 500 MB HEIGHT AND WIND FIELDS
ARE NEARLY IDENTICAL WITH THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE
DEVELOPING TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN THROUGH 72 HOURS. DESPITE THESE
STRIKING SIMILARITIES...HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
DIVERGENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACKS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 48 HOURS. FOR
THE NEXT 2 DAYS OR SO...THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A
SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. AFTER THAT...THE GFS...GFS-PARALLEL...
CMC...HWRF...AND GFDL MODEL KEEP ALEX ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND
BRING THE CYCLONE INLAND ALONG THE LOWER OR CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. IN
CONTRAST...THE ECMWF...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS TAKE ALEX WESTWARD
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO...WITH THE ECMWF HAVING THE
MOST SOUTHERN TRACK OF THOSE MODELS. HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE NHC MODEL
SUITE HAS SHIFTED NORTH AGAIN...ALONG WITH THE ECMWF MODEL. THE
ONLY DIFFERENCE I CAN SEE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THAT THE THE
ECMWF...UKMET...AND ESPECIALLY NOGAPS DEPICT ALEX AS A SMALLER AND
WEAKER CYCLONE THAN THE OTHER MODELS ARE FORECASTING. GIVEN THAT
ALEX IS EXPECTED TO BE A RELATIVELY LARGE HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS...
GREATER WEIGHT WAS PLACED ON THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS... WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK...BUT STILL
REMAINS SOUTH OF THE NHC CONSENSUS MODEL..TVCN.

[Texas Snowman]

LOL...come on ivan....go to bed.

Best advice I've heard all day...it's gonna be a looong season

Yep, we may all be VERY sleep deprived come the end of October!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Quick question before its off to work. Checked out the maps of our local extended forecast a little bit ago and showed a front draped across the gulf states in the days 3 and 4 timeframe with Alex moving NW into south TX. I know the models have starting converging a bit since last night but wouldn't its seem with the front moving down rigth near the gulf the steering currents for Alex would be pulling him more north since there would be such a strong SE flow ahead of the front?

[Comanche]

Quick question before its off to work. Checked out the maps of our local extended forecast a little bit ago and showed a front draped across the gulf states in the days 3 and 4 timeframe with Alex moving NW into south TX. I know the models have starting converging a bit since last night but wouldn't its seem with the front moving down rigth near the gulf the steering currents for Alex would be pulling him more north since there would be such a strong SE flow ahead of the front?

From what I understand, the stronger the system, the more influence that front would have, however, at this particular moment, Alex is a tight little tropical storm (which may rapidly change in the near future).

[Cape Verde]

Maybe I'm not seeing all the latest model runs, but if they are converging, it's more at Corpus Christs than anywhere else. It sure isn't in northern Mexico south of Brownsville..

I know the NHC moved the cone north, but I don't see the consensus at the center of the cone.

[txagwxman]

Depends which model...ECMWF still south of BRO, GFS parallel is BRO. I think the mean is closer to BROWNSVILLE overall and not Corpus.

All depends upon how strong this ridge develops to the north later this week, ECMWF/UKMET solutions are stronger.

[wkwally]

being here in the valley it looks like the boggie man is comming

[Recurve]

The "spurious" low in the earlier runs developed just off the Alabama coast and tracked almost due east going inland in the Florida panhandle and emerging into the Atlantic off GA-SC.

[cycloneye]

12z BAMS.

WHXX01 KWBC 281256
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1256 UTC MON JUN 28 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALEX (AL012010) 20100628 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100628 1200 100629 0000 100629 1200 100630 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.1N 91.6W 21.2N 92.4W 22.1N 93.4W 23.1N 94.2W
BAMD 20.1N 91.6W 20.8N 92.4W 21.3N 93.3W 22.0N 94.4W
BAMM 20.1N 91.6W 21.1N 92.5W 21.8N 93.4W 22.7N 94.3W
LBAR 20.1N 91.6W 21.4N 92.4W 22.9N 93.7W 24.6N 95.3W
SHIP 50KTS 59KTS 67KTS 75KTS
DSHP 50KTS 59KTS 67KTS 75KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100630 1200 100701 1200 100702 1200 100703 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.9N 95.1W 25.6N 96.8W 27.0N 97.6W 30.2N 95.5W
BAMD 22.7N 95.6W 23.9N 97.6W 24.7N 98.6W 26.2N 98.9W
BAMM 23.6N 95.3W 25.4N 97.0W 27.2N 97.5W 30.5N 95.8W
LBAR 26.4N 96.4W 29.6N 97.4W 31.8N 96.6W 32.7N 94.7W
SHIP 81KTS 90KTS 86KTS 69KTS
DSHP 81KTS 90KTS 34KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.1N LONCUR = 91.6W DIRCUR = 330DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 19.2N LONM12 = 91.1W DIRM12 = 312DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 18.6N LONM24 = 90.1W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 989MB OUTPRS = 1006MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 60NM

[HouTXmetro]

With most models now showing the traditional North to Northeast recurve just after landfall I am becoming more concerned with Alex speed. The longer Alex takes to get our of the BOC the greater the threat to upper Texas Coast and perhaps SW Louisiana...


just my humble opinion.

[Roxy]

With most models now showing the traditional North to Northeast recurve just after landfall I am becoming more concerned with Alex speed. The longer Alex takes to get our of the BOC the greater the threat to upper Texas Coast and perhaps SW Louisiana...


just my humble opinion.

I thought so too, based on the curve after landfall. Could use the rain, but not a full blown storm.