ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[Wx_Warrior]

para model (72 h)

[ROCK]

looks a tad south of earlier runs....at this point all the run are running together....

[ROCK]

[SunnyThoughts]

I agree Rock, my eyes are crossing....but from the looks of that water vapor imagery you posted, everything looks to be moving Eastward to me across the conus.

[ROCK]

right around Matagorda on this run.....has the north shift halt and now we see the leveling out of the models?? more model runs to come...

[clfenwi]

00z parallel GFS, much further left/south than 00Z operational. 00Z operational slightly left of 12Z op. (don't have a 12z parallel to compare with 0Z para).

[wxman22]

Yep its practically 100% identical to the 18z

[Wx_Warrior]

para GFS 96h (landfall south of brownsville)

[Air Force Met]

Para GFS may have the right idea. It doesn't move it much over the next 36 hours or so...and it doesn't look like it is moving much.

[clfenwi]

00Z Canadian has swung over to the left... I'd call it a lower Texas coast landfall at 96h.

[cycloneye]

00Z Canadian has swung over to the left... I'd call it a lower Texas coast landfall at 96h.

You have the graphic?

[clfenwi]

00Z Canadian has swung over to the left... I'd call it a lower Texas coast landfall at 96h.

You have the graphic?

The larger black and white graphic showed it first... was waiting for the smaller color graphics to catch up.

[Wx_Warrior]

interesting shift south for the ol' cmc

[ROCK]

the CMC shifted south,,,,, Its safe to say the north trend has stopped dead in its tracks....IMO, I dont see models moving north after tonight....I am sure they will bump aournd MX to CC but thats about as far north.....

[swimaster20]

It almost seems as if the 00Z CMC has a weaker Alex than the 12Z run did. I wonder if that has anything to do with the shift?

[wxman22]

Looks like the trend north has ended I think Louisiana is out of the woods now and the area to focus on is from Mexico to the Middle Texas Coast.I think the question now is this a trend south with all the northern models or is this finally a consolidation of the models.

[clfenwi]

00Z NOGAPS shifted up the coast a bit. Infer landfall just south of the border around 78h (this is the 72h graphic).



From what I've seen so far, I would expect a slight adjustment to the right for the NHC forecast track... with the discussion (either implicitly or explicitly) reflecting better confidence.

[LaBreeze]

Looks like the trend north has ended I think Louisiana is out of the woods now and the area to focus on is from Mexico to the Middle Texas Coast.

I totally agree.

[brunota2003]

I personally am thinking (and have been since before the model runs) Galveston to Brownsville is the best bet. I think the GFS might actually be on to something, considering it is still going north even without the spin ups...at least it is somewhat consistent anyways! I expect the models will come more in line north of the border or just around the border after we start the G-IV flight and special soundings.


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[ROCK]

I am conceding to the lastest runs....no Euro for me tonight....thank gawd...