ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I've actually seen the NAM do decent with weaker systems.

[wkwally]

from what it looks like to me it seems that I should be going to walmart before the crowds hit the store. I have been watching these storms for a long time and I do not put too much trust in the models. I was dead on with Dolly and my gut feeling is that Alex will be our storm here in Brownsville. If not a direct hit maybe just a little south. I think it will be at least a strong cat 1. I could be wrong but I am putting my money on my gut feeling this time.

[Wx_Warrior]

good idea wk...never can be too certain of anything.

[ROCK]

Ivan back to posting the NAM.... I did that earlier today and it was sort of cool.....

[antonlsu]

Ivan back to posting the NAM.... I did that earlier today and it was sort of cool.....

Im praying that nam doesnt verify

[Ivanhater]

Ivan back to posting the NAM.... I did that earlier today and it was sort of cool.....

Lol I saw. I was on my droid downtown P'cola.

[ROCK]

[Ivanhater]

Lol..moves it due south

[KFDM Meteorologist]

High at 500 building north of it at that time!

[somethingfunny]

This is going to be a real hair puller of a forecast isn't it? I'm having visions of Hurricane Elena.

[Wx_Warrior]

yep

[Texas Snowman]

from what it looks like to me it seems that I should be going to walmart before the crowds hit the store. I have been watching these storms for a long time and I do not put too much trust in the models. I was dead on with Dolly and my gut feeling is that Alex will be our storm here in Brownsville. If not a direct hit maybe just a little south. I think it will be at least a strong cat 1. I could be wrong but I am putting my money on my gut feeling this time.

I referenced Dolly on Friday on one of the other Alex threads.

The initial path of Alex is certainly more southerly at the moment and the time of the year is off about a month, but I agree that this storm should be catching the attention of everyone in the RGV right now.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

ALTHOUGH THE 12-HR AVERAGE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/6...
SHORTER-TERM FIXES SUGGEST THAT ALEX MAY BE MOVING EVEN SLOWER.
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST AN UNUSUALLY
DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A TEMPORARY WEAKENING OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE GFS/CANADIAN MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A WEAKER VERSION OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND HENCE A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY OR NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY MOTION...WHILE THE ECMWF/
UKMET/NOGAPS HAVE CONSISTENTLY PREDICTED A STRONGER RIDGE AND MOVE
ALEX ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY COURSE. THE OFFICIAL NEW FORECAST
IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS A
CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS THAT EXCLUDES THE GFS...SINCE THE
LATTER MODEL APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT OF A NORTHERN OUTLIER AT THIS
TIME.

[Texas Snowman]

This is going to be a real hair puller of a forecast isn't it? I'm having visions of Hurricane Elena.

Or maybe Hurricane Brett in 1999...

[cycloneye]

They consider GFS as an outlier,and that is why they stick to the previous track.

[perk]

They consider GFS as an outlier,and that is why they stick to the previous track.

I'm still trying to get my head around the GFS being the outliier.

[crazycajuncane]

A cold front in June! That is usually our best friend. We don't want Alex tracking up on the northern end of the cone or even further than that.

Oil Spill nightmare... Alex please visit Mexico!

[wkwally]

I was just reading the updates and I am still sticking with my gut feeling. I also remember that each time the models forcast a south texas and mex storm it makes landfall north of the models. I hope that my gut feeling will change by tomorrow. I also do not like the forcast of Alex becoming a cat 2 hurricane before land fall. but the conditions are right. So for now I will stick with my gut feeling. If I am wrong I will just have extra batteries and caned food

[hurricaneCW]

Oil Spill nightmare... Alex please visit Mexico![/quote]

He just spent the whole day in Mexico

[Wx_Warrior]

gfs 0z rolling...i'll post the para (coming soon model) when it gets a few frames in...

Here is current model 36h